You Runtian: The Government of the Government of the Great Power

Early Beijing Yiye

The Government of the great country cares about a strategic game.Unfortunately, in the trade war initiated by the Shoucheng Kingdom to the Rise Kingdom, the company was the first to be the brunt.

One of the superficial reasons for the United States to launch a trade war in China is to reform state -owned enterprises in China.However, this battle was played, and more Chinese private enterprises and American companies were hit.

Liu Jin, deputy dean of the Yangtze River Business School, pointed out to this newspaper that 60%of the Chinese goods exports came from private enterprises, 30%came from foreign -funded enterprises, and only 10%of state -owned enterprises.It can be seen that the most direct victim of the United States' tariffs on China and Canada is Chinese private enterprises and foreign -funded enterprises.

The trade war also indirectly dried the social financing channels of Chinese private enterprises.In order to ensure the stability of the economy to bear the impact of the trade war, the Chinese government increased deleveraging last year to prevent financial risks.Although the central government promised to help private enterprises to solve financing difficulties at the end of last year, the data showed that this was not implemented.

According to the Twenty -five targets of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in the new corporate loan, large banks have no less than one -third of private enterprise loans, and small and medium -sized banks are not less than two -thirds.The proportion is not less than 50%.Nevertheless, the year -on -year growth rate of off -balance -shelf financing that private enterprises relied on were still negative since the start of the trade war in the second half of last year. In April this year, it further reduced to 10.9%.

Liu Jin explained to Lianhe Morning Post that this is because the political risks of loans to private enterprises are higher than that of state -owned enterprises. In case private enterprises have illegal acts or debts, banks may have to blame.Risks worthy of risk.

Under the double blows of rising export costs and difficulty in financing, more and more private enterprises are about to survive.

According to data from Liu Jin and the team, from July last year to April this year, the excess of the overdue amount of debt defaults doubled, an average of 16.5 billion yuan (about S $ 3.3 billion) in debt defaults per month.Most of the debt of breach of contract comes from private enterprises.

Judging from the financial data of A -share listed companies, the net profit of Chinese private enterprises fell sharply last year, and the growth rate of revenue fell below state -owned enterprises in March this year.After eliminating the impact of asset impairment, the return rate of the private enterprise's stock capital (ROE) is also lower than the state -owned enterprise in March this year, and it has maintained a good day that has been higher than the state -owned enterprise ROE for nearly four years.

The days of American companies are not necessarily better.

Look at American agriculture first.Pork merchants claim that Chinese tariffs make them earn $ 8 per pig.The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that soybeans have fallen from $ 9.33 in 2017 to $ 8.60 last year, and this year will fall further.U.S. President Trump promised to issue $ 16 billion to farmers last week, but many farmers complained to the media that the relief was not enough and gave them a sense of uncomfortable feeling.

The cycle of agriculture cannot be changed.What makes American farmers anxious is that because of the result of uncertain trade negotiations, it is difficult for them to accurately budget how many mu of beans will grow this year.

There is also a cycle of investment.When the American Chamber of Commerce in China investigated 250 companies in China in the middle of this month, nearly 80 % of the companies believed that the new tariffs had a negative impact on them, including the decline in demand for products and rising costs.Half of companies believe that profit will decline.

Interestingly, when asked what the specific results of seeing the trade agreement, the answer that the most (43%) chose of the company (43%) turned out to be back to the origin!There are only 15%of companies that choose to supervise domestic and foreign -funded enterprises, only 12%of companies that choose to expand market access, and only 10%of companies that choose to strengthen intellectual property protection.Only one company most wants to see the transfer of mandatory technology, accounting for 0.4%.

This survey may show that the U.S. government launched a trade war in the name of maintaining American companies. After so long, some American companies in China began to believe that they were more demands for the end of technology transfer and unfair treatment.The desire to reach an agreement quickly so that the market can restore stability and certainty.Although the business environment of China was not ideal before the start of the trade war, it was stronger than that of the long -term investment plan.