Society: The ultimatum game of Sino -US science and technology trade wrestling

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

After the 11th round of Sino -US trade negotiations ended with no conclusions, the US government immediately put pressure on China.On May 15th, after the signing of an administrative order in the U.S. President Trump quoted the International Emergency Economic Power Law, the US Department of Commerce included Huawei and its 70 -relationship companies on the entitled list of blacklists (Entity List), and the United States in the futureBefore obtaining the government's permission, enterprises will no longer sell products and provide technical services to Huawei and their related enterprises.

Although the U.S. government has given Huawei's three -month buffer period, it is generally recognized that the United States has officially launched the extreme pressure on the Chinese technology industry.Negotiation chips during subsequent consultations.Regardless of how the Sino -US trade war evolved in the end, it is expected that the competition between China and the United States in the field of high -tech development in the future will only become increasingly higher.The British Economist Magazine also describes the deadlock of the current Sino -US comprehensive confrontation in the field of economic and technology in the new Cold War.

In March last year, before the United States had paid taxes on the first wave of imported goods to China, the United States issued a ban on ZTE on the grounds that China ZTE violates the U.S.'s export ban on Iran to block ZTE, blocking ZTE Communications from from the Communications Communications.American companies have obtained the channels for electronic technology and key components. This move has suddenly stopped the operation of ZTE's operating, which has also caused the company's revenue to decrease sharply from 1,88 billion yuan in 2017 to 85.5 billion in 2018, with revenue recession 21.4%, The company's profit was also a profit to a loss after the US government's $ 1 billion of the $ 1 billion of the US government. The ZTE incident allowed the outside world to see the development of the Chinese technology industry.

Compared with the sanctions against ZTE, the United States refers to Huawei this time and is regarded by the outside world as a super heavy punch that suppress the development of China's high -tech industry.Huawei is a non -publicly issued private technology enterprise supported by the government. In 2018, the revenue reached 7,222 billion yuan. The main source of revenue was: consumer electronics, telecommunications operators, and enterprises.Total total revenue of 90 %.The US government's constraint on Huawei may not only affect Huawei's development process, but also like a shocking bomb for the global technology supply chain.

Last week, the US technology giant Google confirmed that it would cooperate with government policies to stop providing technical support and related services to Huawei. In the future, terminal electronic products such as Huawei mobile phones and tablets outside China will not be able to directly use Google's proprietary applications and services.For Huawei, losing the official Android operating system authorized by Google will have a serious blow to the mobile phone business that has made a lot of profits in recent years.

Huawei started from traditional communication equipment. In recent years, it has actively deployed the research and development of 5G patents and related technologies. In many 5G technology projects, it has gained a global leading position.In addition, in recent years, Huawei has also actively invested in its own brand of mobile phones, hoping to have a place in all stages of the industrial value chain in the 5G era (equipment) to B2C in the 5G era.At present, Huawei's global mobile phone market share is the second to look at Samsung, South Korea, while Apple ranks third, and the fourth and fifth place is OPPO and Xiaomi for Chinese brand operators.At this stage, Huawei's mobile phone shipments have contributed half of the Chinese and overseas markets, but Huawei enjoys great home advantages in China, including more than 50 % of the market share in the Chinese market.

Facing Google's decision, although Huawei can set up another new operating platform under the open original code architecture of the existing Android operating system, it has lost the official support of Google.EssenceOn the other hand, Huawei claims that his mobile phone operating system Hong Meng will come out in advance this fall in advance. Do not worry about the impact after the termination of cooperation with Google, but observe the development context of Huawei in the past.Seamless compatibility is unknown.Another bigger problem is that even if Huawei ’s mobile phone operating system operates smoothly, whether it can create a new software ecosystem in the Apple iOS and Google Android doubles, and achieve the scale effect of the network economy.A big test.Looking back at the past, Microsoft, Nokia, and Blackberry all tried to develop their own operating platforms, but after all, they failed to be favored by consumers.

In addition to the mobile phone operation system, the most worrying about global investors and suppliers is probably the hardware and system supply chain of Huawei.Huawei's purchasing amount involved in the global communication equipment supply chain is as high as 100 billion US dollars. If the U.S. government adopts a strong attitude to allow American companies to withdraw, not only may hesitate the development process of Huawei Netcom business, but for existing suppliers, it will lose heavy losses.This is why the US stock market loses the major Asian stock market after Huawei's name was named by the United States.According to the list of suppliers announced by Huawei, among the more than 90 core suppliers around the world, the top four areas are: the United States (33), Mainland China (25), Japan (11), Taiwan (10 companies (10)To.In the United States, in addition to the familiar semiconductor industry: Intel, Qualcomm, Cylin, Broadcom, Micron, as well as Texas instruments, Microsoft, and Oracle, and software companies are also among them.In terms of Taiwanese manufacturers, it is mainly related to the components and chip solutions of smart phones.

As the leaders of the two countries have turned tough for trade negotiations, this long -tangled trade war has been difficult to understand the traditional wisdom of the game theory.The trade war seems to have evolved into the Ultimatum Game in the two countries, and both sides are in a pull between rational (avoiding out of control) and emotional (fairness).When the industry and investors are developing the development of the future, I am afraid that they can only have the most optimistic expectations and make the worst plans.