Is Chinas reducing holdings of tens of billions of US debt is an important ＂weap

As of the end of March this year, China held US $ 1.12 trillion in US debt, and the scale of positions hit a new low since May 2017.Just last year, Russia and Turkey sold a large number of US debt and withdrawn from the ranks of the main holding countries of the US debt, of which Russia continued to increase its holdings of gold reserves.Does this mean the beginning of the US dollar?Does China also start to go to the US dollar?

The logic of U.S. debt may become a blockbuster weapon is that if the US debt is sold sharply, the price will plummet, and the cost of US social financing will be raised in the short term.The soaring rate will overall the market interest rate of the United States, which will lead to a sharp rise in financing costs in a short period of time.

However, there are not a few objections to this view.

Thomas Tzitzouris, director of the US consulting company Strategas, pointed out in a customer report that selling US Treasury bonds may have little impact on the huge government bond market.TZITZOURIS estimates that the liquidation of $ 500 billion will increase the yield by about 30 basis points, which is 0.3 percentage points, which is unlikely to have a greater impact on further sale, because higher yields will attract from Japan, Australia, South Korea,And other international buyers in the euro area.

Middot, chief economic commentator of the British Financial Times; Wolf said in an interview with surging news that China is not a big threat to sell US debt. First of all, many buyers will be willing to take over.purchase.It is not difficult for the Fed to buy national debt, although the Fed will not do so now.Secondly, if the price of US debt falls, China will lose money, which will also harm China's interests.China has also recently reduced its holdings, and its foreign reserves have declined slightly.Therefore, in the long run, China may no longer buy new US debt and no longer pay for American deficits.

A number of domestic experts and scholars also told Surging News that it is not wise to reduce holdings and sell sharply in front of them, but it does not mean that to go to the US dollar as a long -term strategy.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD Digital Technology, told Surging News that if a large number of holdings are reduced in China for China, there are many negative impacts on China.The reserves have declined, the risk of exchange rate risks is not counted, and the probability of appreciation of the renminbi is also very high, which is also not good for the current domestic situation in China; if the large -selling U.S. debt is replaced with the euro and the yen, these currencies will be appreciated.If you are willing to accept it, the negative impact on China may be greater from the current situation; the impact on the United States is that the US dollar interest rate will rise, but the US response strategy will be purchased by the Federal Reserve to purchase these national debt.Therefore, if such measures are taken in the current stage, the negative impact on China may be greater than the United States.

Xia Le, chief economist of Asian Economist at the Asian Economist of the Outer Bank of Spain, told Peng Mei News that he believes that China will not take a large number of measures to sell US debt at present, because this is equivalent to interfere with the other party's financial market, then the future situation may be the situation in the future.Unprecedented, the troubles that may be greater than the current.Xia Le pointed out that it has been seen that China has reduced the purchase of US debt, and China needs more weapons to maintain exchange rate stability.In the long run, China can diversify foreign exchange reserves, and foreign exchange reserves are best to serve the real economy. Therefore, if the current situation continues, the best choice is to gradually reduce the holdings of the US dollar.But Xia Le emphasized that this is not the current weapon, but a long -term strategic adjustment.

Yu Miaojie, a professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said in an interview with surging news that although he did not support a large number of selling US debt at present, he believed that from the long run, he must go to the US dollar to accelerate the international construction of the RMB and carry out more.More currency exchange.At present, China has currency exchange with 35 countries, and it can still gradually increase the number and scale of currency swaps.Be sure to adhere to the internationalization of the US dollar and the RMB, and the first step is the currency exchange of RMB.

Lin Yifu, Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University, wrote a article last year that the return on bonds of the US government is very low.The US stock market bubble is large and risks are high.If China will be used for a part of the funds in the infrastructure construction of countries along the Belt and Road countries, a part of the funds of the US $ 3 trillion foreign exchange reserves can be used.As long as these projects have good selection, the return rate will be quite high, which can achieve a win -win situation.

Yu Miaojie agrees with this view that from the perspective of investment income, U.S. debt is not the only choice, and it can hold the euro, yen, and pound products.It is necessary to plan ahead, and multiple configurations must be used as a long -term strategy.Yu Miaojie emphasized.

Yu Miaojie pointed out that the political risks and exchange rate risks in some countries are not very high. It is better to invest as the target of investment, such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.

Ju Jiandong, director of the International Financial and Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University National Financial Research Institute, emphasized that the change of the international monetary system is a gradual process. The absence of the US dollar as a long -term strategy. The first thing to do is the normalization of cross -border capital circulation.To prevent the financial crisis, it is necessary to ensure that the interconnection of the domestic financial market and the international financial market must be normalized.Ju Jian Dongxiang News pointed out that the global economy has formed a three -point situation in the United States, Europe, and Asia, but the US dollar leads the global currency system. The US dollar as a reserve currency has not changed much in the past 20 years.The global economic foundation has changed, but the upper -level buildings have not changed. The contradictions have always existed. If the upper -level building is to reflect the economic foundation, the situation led by the US dollar sooner or later needs to be changed, but there is no alternative option.