1/1 ■ The famous economist Liu Zunyi said that although the situation of the trade war has changed, it does not need to panic and has a limited impact on the economy of China and Hong Kong.
The war of trade in China and the United States rewinds, and the two countries have once again increased tariffs on each other, and the United States "fires" to Chinese scientific enterprises such as Huawei.Liu Zunyi, the former principal of the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the famous economist, accepted an exclusive interview with this newspaper, admitting that the situation has "some changes". US President Trump seems to have no intention of reaching an agreement as a bonus tool for his re -election. It is expected to be 11 next year.Before the U.S. election, it was difficult for China and the United States to reach a comprehensive trade agreement, but during the period, the two sides would maintain dialogue and not cause the anti -Taiwan rupture.Although the situation was not as optimistic before, Liu Zunyi believed that there was no need to panic. "There are many ways in China" maintained economic growth, and the sky still could not collapse, and the trade war had limited impact on the Mainland and Hong Kong. The Sino -US trade war has been hit for nearly a year, and the United States has repeated attitudes.Earlier this year, Trump continued to call "the negotiation progress is good" and "close to reaching an agreement", but in early May, he suddenly "changed his face" that China violated the negotiation commitment and decided to increase tariffs to 20 billion U.S. dollars to 20 % to 20 % to 20 % to 20 %Fifth, threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining $ 30 billion Chinese goods.Soon, China counterattacked, with a maximum tariff of US $ 60 billion in US goods.The 11 rounds of trade negotiations have stagnated. EMSP; EMSP; Liu Zunyi was interviewed by this newspaper in January this year. It is expected that China and the United States are expected to reach a "not satisfied but acceptable" agreement in March, but now it is obviously not so optimistic.He admits that the situation has "some changes", which mainly originated from factors such as Trump see that the US economy performed well in the first quarter, the unemployment rate hit a half -century low, the inflation is mild, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expects to be weakened.Opportunities are re -elected, and there is no need to rush to reach an agreement with China to add points to themselves. On the contrary, when the anti -China and anti -China emotions are generally rising in the United States, it may be attacked to the weakness of China and will not lose it. EMSP; EMSP; Liu Zunyi said, even if it is not an agreement, Trump can say "this is a bad deal. Thats why I would away." (This is a bad agreement, so I quit.)The idea of "is a market" in the United States. EMSP; EMSP; Vice Premier Liu He, who is responsible for negotiations on the United States, said earlier that there are three major differences in Sino -US negotiations, including whether to revoke all tariffs, how much the number of US purchases are purchased by China, and the balance of text balancing in agreement.Liu Zunyi said that the sincerity of the United States hopes to reach an agreement is becoming more and more questioned, and some conditions issued by the United States know that China is unacceptable.For example, if China does not perform an agreement, the United States can use tariffs to punish them, and China may not retaliate. For example, the United States requires China to ensure that foreign -funded intellectual property legislation is guaranteed. EMSP; EMSP; Liu Zunyi said that if his judgment is correct, Trump really no longer needs this agreement, and the Sino -US trade negotiation may be dragged to the presidential election.The two sides will continue to be glorious, but they will not be fully ruptured, because they are not good for each other. There are still many things to cooperate in China and the United States, including the United States needed Chinese assistance on the North Korean issue."Trump has no distinction between China or badness. It depends on the benefits. If you help him, do it. If you do n’t help, do n’t do it." EMSP; EMSP; next month, the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, China and the United States are expected to meet for the first time. Liu Zunyi expects that the two parties will have a small chance of signing an agreement, but some consensus may be reached, such as suspending tariffs and continuing negotiations to ease the atmosphere.After all, Trump has also been under pressure from many American industry on the tariff issue.
