Author: Yang Tinghui
In the past two months, relations with Iran have deteriorated rapidly!In April, the United States first listed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in the list of official terrorist organizations, and then canceled sanctions exemption from Iran's export of oil.In May, the US check -in Iran's actions continued to upgrade.National Security Consultant Bolton announced on May 5 that information showed that Iran might launch an attack, so the aircraft carrier Lincoln was sent to the Persian Gulf.On May 15, the United States suddenly withdrew from the Embassy in Iraq and the non -emergency government personnel in the consulate in Elbil.
Iranian military strength is far from launching nuclear war
On the other side, Iran is not willing to show weakness.After the Islamic Revolutionary Guard was included in the list of US terrorist organizations, she then included the U.S. Central Command of the U.S. Central Command in her official list of the official terrorist organizations.Since then, Hossein Salami, the highest spiritual leader of Iran, replaced the U.S. and Israel's stance, and served as commander -in -chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.On the first anniversary of the Iranian nuclear agreement (May 8th), the US President Rouhani announced that Iran's local exit nuclear agreement includes low concentrated uranium and heavy water that no longer exports.The tension between the two sides of the United States and Iran has quickly heated up the tension of the Persian Gulf.
However, the current upgrade operation of Iran is far from the level of launching nuclear war. The reason is that her low -concentrated uranium output and the number of centrifugal separators are not enough to convert raw materials into real nuclear weapons, let alone establish to threaten the United States, Israel and Israel andNuclear Martial Arts aura of Saudi Arabia.In other words, the saying of the haze of the Middle East is still exaggerated.
It is difficult to be a person in the EU
In fact, the local withdrawal of the nuclear agreement is nothing more than sending clear information to the European Union: if Iran cannot get any benefits through the compliance with the nuclear agreement, the EU will not get any benefits.However, Rouhani does not have a thorough blockage to re -obey the nuclear agreement: he gives 60 days of European countries signed a nuclear agreement to help relieve Iran's current dilemma.
However, Ruhani's Ruyi abacus is not easy to fight.It is true that the European Union has always tried to set up another way to set up a supporting trade exchange tool (Intex) to avoid participating in the US sanctions on Iran, but in reality, few multinational companies and banks are willing to risk being sanctioned by the United States and maintaining their normal normal in Iran.Economic and trade relations.In other words, even though EU countries do not agree with the United States unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and restart sanctions against Iran, they have not fully fulfilled their economic commitments to Iran.Because of this, Hamenei has mocked the establishment of Intex as a joke.
Iran's difficulty in the United States to apply pressure on the United States
Some analysts pointed out that Rouhani can adopt the tollment tactics. After Trump loses the US presidential election next year, the United States will have the opportunity to re -abide by the nuclear agreement.However, the possibility of Rouhani gambling is very small.First of all, whether the Trump will be defeated in the year is still unknown.If Trump is re -elected as the president of the United States, then Rouhani will lose his wife and fold it.Moreover, Iran's tough conservatives and even some mild reform factions step by step, exert political pressure, and domestic complaints are becoming increasingly boiling. Rouhani has no enough political capital to exchange time for space.
To be sure, the United States unilaterally withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear agreement and restarting tough sanctions has a serious impact on the Iranian economy.In the past year alone, Iran's domestic inflation rate has exceeded 40%, and its export oil volume has also decreased by more than 60%.However, Iran's chances of giving in concessions are not optimistic.At present, the mainstream domestic public opinion in Iran has gone to criticize Rouhani not only the terms of the nuclear agreement that has caused Iran to accept humiliation, but also failed to fulfill its commitment to reform the Iranian economy.If Trump continues to put pressure on Iran, the opportunity of the tough conservatives of Iran seems to be much higher than the opportunity to compromise the Iranian government.
What's more, the United States can strengthen pressure on Iran very limited.Of course, in principle, she does not rule out the possibility of meeting with Iranian soldiers.If Iran fights for a long time with the United States, her economic situation will be worse.However, the U.S. military is also likely to fall into another dilemma in the Middle East.In addition, the move is exactly the United States of Trump's priority.It is worth mentioning that the support of Iran's organizations in the Ozo Party, Hamas, and Yemenhase Armed Forces is limited to regional security issues in the Middle East, and it does not constitute a direct national security threat to the United States.Therefore, Trump wants to persuade the people in China to support the majority of troops to attack Iran. It is believed that it is not easy.The US presidential election will be held next year. I am afraid that one of Trump's most scared things is that both the United States and Iraqi wipe the gun and go fire!
The author is an associate researcher at the Department of Public Policy of the City University of Hong Kong
