Source: Reuters Author: Su Yiyi

The downward pressure on China's economy has not diminished, and the upgrades of the Sino -US trade war have exacerbated external risks, making it difficult for real estate related to macroeconomics to be alone.Experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the relaxation of monetary policy is gradually shrinking and pays more attention to effective drip irrigation, and the principle of not having housing and living is not shaken, which means that even when the economic pressure is under pressure, the support of real estate capacity is not as good as before.

The real estate blue book jointly released by the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House predicts that this year's real estate market will continue to adjust the stable adjustment.Early warning.

Affected by the slowdown of macroeconomic growth, it is expected that the stable adjustment of the real estate market in 2019 will not change substantially.Wang Yeqiang, director of the real estate office of the Institute of Social Sciences, quoted the Blue Book, stating that the growth rate of commercial housing sales may continue to slow down, the increase in housing prices has fallen as a whole, the land trading market will return to rationality, and the growth rate of real estate investment will be further adjusted.

He said that the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, while economic uncertainty has increased, the upgrade of US monetary policy and Sino -US trade friction, these factors have continuously strengthened the Chinese economy's uncertainty.Gradually reduced, the currency's stimulus on the property market is relatively limited.

The impact of Sino -US trade friction on the Chinese economy is far -reaching, and the real estate market is also unreasonable.He said.

Specifically, the proper loosening administrative control measures in first -tier and second -tier cities. Under the improvement of policy marginal improvement, market transaction activity will increase, and the sales area may achieve a small increase;With obvious overdrafts of market demand, market sales may return to the downward channel.

The real estate blue book predicts that the growth rate of real estate investment this year is 6.98%, and the sales area of commercial housing sales is expected to -0.35%year-on-year.According to the latest data from the Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of real estate investment in the first April reached 11.9%, which was higher than 9.5%last year; the sales area in the first April decreased by 0.3%year -on -year, a year -on -year increase of 1.3%.

Be wary of risk risks of housing prices in some cities

Judging from the 70 large and medium -sized cities of the Statistics Bureau, house prices have continued for four consecutive years, and the average national residential sales predicted by the Academy of Social Sciences will still rise.Their reports emphasize that the increase in housing prices in some key cities may be significantly exceeded the mean, and multi -level predictions, monitoring and early warning should be strengthened.

According to its estimates, the average sales price of commercial housing increased by 12.2%last year, and it is expected that the national average growth rate of this year may fall to 7.6%.

In terms of some key cities, the increase in housing prices may significantly exceed the level we expect, and the price stimulus of these key cities should prevent the market fluctuated significantly.Wang Yeqiang said at the press conference.

The Blue Book pointed out that the residential market de -inventory has basically achieved the expected goal. In 2019, the predictive sales area is significantly greater than the completion area. The available area will be further reduced, which may stimulate housing prices. This year, the residential supply should be increased and accelerated in the corresponding cities.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development conducted early warning of six cities in April, and recently, Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian, Dalian, and Nanning, which have been built in the past three months.Early warning tips to further implement the responsibility of the real estate market to regulate the city's main body.

Policy Stability and Releasing Power

In terms of policies, the Blue Book of the Academy of Social Sciences believes that this year's real estate policy will still adhere to the principles of housing housing and the policy of urban policies. However, under the influence of factors in the industry, it may be moderately relaxed, and its policy tone is stability, differentiation and decentralization.

This year's real estate policy is mainly based on stable land prices, stable house prices, and stable expectations. Niu Fengrui, the former director of the Institute of City Institute of Social Sciences, said that my understanding is stable or unchanged.It can be regarded as stable, and it is acceptable to solve the major changes in the main contradictions of society during individual hours.

He pointed out that the rise in house prices that are compatible with economic and social development and revenue growth can also be considered stable. The year -on -year year -on -year increase in housing prices in the annual annual annual development should also be cautious and should not be excessive.Monthly and quarterly data data is an important parameter for the decision -making of both market supply and demand, but it is not advisable to be the basis for policy adjustment.

We must learn from the lessons that used to be exchanged for the next round of retaliation with short -term stability.Niu Fengrui said that the rise in house prices is not desirable, but although the house price is greatly reduced to buyers, the overall impact of economic and social development may not be good. The regulation and control policy should be transformed from fatigue to the changes in house prices to building a long -term mechanism.The regulation of the hand is better to use the invisible hand.

The Blue Book of the Academy of Social Sciences predicts that policy adjustments will be carried out in a structured way. All localities will give full play to the main responsibility of the city government, from bottom to top, and fine -tuning for local tentatives.The first and second -tier cities focus on the protection of rigid and improving demand, and properly loosen the excessive administrative control measures; the third- and fourth -tier cities will treat shed reform and resettlement, and the de -inventory area will gradually exit or reduce monetization resettlement.

At the end of April, the Ministry of Finance announced the special fund distribution form of the central financial urban security living living project in 2019. It shows that the number of renovations in the urban shantytown plan this year was only 2.85 million, compared with the 5.8 million sets of last year's targets and 6.26 million sets of back cuts.

Wang Yeqiang said that with the tightening of policies, the saturation of the small and medium -sized cities market has increased, and the risk of real estate market risks in small and medium -sized cities that lack population and industrial support will increase.