Zheng Yongnian: Re -evaluate the topic of ＂the decline in the United States＂

Zheng Yongnian column

Over the years, the decline of the United States has been the most important topic in the field of academic and policy research. It is not only in the United States, but also in countries around the world.The main causes of this topic include two levels: objective and subjective, or two levels of reality and cognition.

There are two aspects at the objective level.First, the rapid rise of emerging economies, especially the rise of China.After the 1890s, the United States has always been the world's largest economy.After the end of World War II, although the United States Group and the Soviet Group were opposed to, the Soviet Group was only unilaterally military, and all other aspects, including economy, politics, and ideology, have been weak.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union, the United States became the only hegemony in the world.

But the globalization since the 1980s has created a group of emerging economies, especially China.China began reform and opening up in the late 1970s. Although the Western sanctions were comprehensive after the June 4th incident in 1989, China quickly overcome a deep crisis through its own reform and opening up.Since the 1990s, China has grown rapidly and has become the world's second largest economy in a long period of history.At the same time, some other emerging countries are not weak, especially the BRICS countries.

Second, the relatively decline of the United States.Compared with the rapid development of these countries, the development speed of the United States is obviously slow. The US economy and military can quantify, and the share of the world is decreasing.However, in all absolute numbers, the United States still maintains absolute advantages.

The subjective level also includes two aspects.First, the self -expansion of other countries.World history shows that the rising countries, especially the rising countries, and the declining countries, especially the country in the rapid decline, often produce strong nationalist emotions.For rising countries, if nationalist mood is not controlled well, it often has unrealistic illusions, that is, I feel that I have the ability to challenge the existing hegemony, or fight for the hegemony by themselves.Furthermore, the big country in decline often helps nationalism to try to restore the status of a great country, and will also challenge the existing great powers in various ways; although it is possible to accelerate the decline, it can be kept in a long period of time.National pride.There are very few countries that admit their decline like the British Empire and plan to withdraw from the status of the Great Power.In a word, nationalism often overestimates its own strength and underestimates the power of other countries.

Second, the deep sense of crisis in the United States.The United States is a sense of crisis -driven society.Compared with nationals in other countries, Americans rarely have patience.Because of democracy, openness, and freedom, the Americans called out as soon as they suffered, and the media that was keen on reporting negative news, the American society often had a deep sense of crisis, and politicians (because of votes) had to have to have to have to have to have to have to votes.Response.In fact, the whole West is the case.It is not difficult to understand that the sound of the West and the decline in the United States have never stopped in the West and the United States.But a similar sense of crisis is rare in other society and even backward society.The actual situation is that even if many societies are in crisis, they still can't feel all aspects.

So how to objectively evaluate the problem of decline in the United States?On this issue, people first need to know a few important variables.

First, the decline of the United States is relative, which is compared with the development of other countries.If compared with the past, the United States is still developing, but it is only slow.

Second, historical experience shows that the decline of large powers is a long historical process.The decline of the late Qing Dynasty has gone through a long time. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's military is still one of the most powerful.In other words, in this long process, the United States still has the opportunity to revive.Although the United States is the birthplace of the global financial crisis in 2008, and the impact of crisis on the US economy is also obvious, in Western countries, the United States seems to show its strong self -correction ability.

Third, the United States did not comprehensively decline, but partial decline.In the fields of economy, military, science and technology, innovation, no other country can be compared with the United States.Although the advantages of the United States' ideology and political system (that is, the aspect of soft power) can no longer be compared with during the third wave of democratic waves, in these areas, the United States has not encountered challengers, and in fact, there is no existence of existenceReplacement system.Furthermore, this problem is caused by the United States itself, mainly because the United States ’failure in overseas (especially in the Middle East) does not count the failure of American democracy and the confrontation of the US domestic party politics.

The United States is the biggest beneficiary of globalization

In reality, although the United States has experienced a relatively declining decline, the US economic performance is better than any country.To this day, the United States still has the world's largest market, the most advanced technology, the most powerful innovation capabilities, and irreplaceable US dollar hegemony.Among all large economies, the United States' labor productivity is still the highest, and the free market and strong folk forces make the US's ability to repair the crisis.

In terms of economic forms, some traditional industries in the United States must be transferred to other countries, and they must have declined, but the United States firmly controls the world's financial economy and Internet economy, that is, the two most important economic fields in the world today.Although some other countries are also developing the financial economy, there is no power to challenge Wall Street.The Internet can be said to have only one in the United States so far, because although the number of China has almost accounted for almost half of the mountains in this field, China is mainly technological applications, and there are very few original technology.At the same time, the United States has the forefront of the knowledge economy.Therefore, as far as the economy is concerned, there is no sign of long -term decline in the United States.Not to mention military budgets in military budgets are only a small part of the US budget.No country can resist the domineering of US military forces in the world.

If you discuss in -depth discussions, it is not so declining, it is a necessary transformation.Indeed, there are also many problems in the US economy, but these problems are not unique to the United States, but universal problems facing almost all countries, that is, the income distribution of income distribution caused by globalization and technological progress is highly differentiated with society.For the United States, globalization is both advantage and disadvantage.

The recent wave of globalization led by the United States has created a large amount of wealth for the United States. The United States is the largest beneficiary of globalization, although other countries, especially China, are also the beneficiaries of globalization.However, globalization has also caused the United States to lose economic sovereignty. There have been major problems in the distribution of internal income of American society, that is, most of the benefits of globalization have flowed to a few people who dominate and participate in globalization. Most people have not obtained sufficient benefits.Some people even become victims.The advancement of technology, especially robots and artificial intelligence, replaces more and more traditional labor, which further worsen social differentiation.Obviously, this phenomenon is not limited to the United States, but generally exists in other countries, including globalization participants, including China, facing this problem more or less.

Marx's 19th -century judgment is still right, that is, the economy is the foundation, and politics is the upper -level building.That is to say, the advancement of globalization and technology has led to the change of economic foundation. So how does political change to adapt to this new economic foundation?Most countries are facing this problem, and the United States is even more like.Over the years, there have been continuous controversy in the United States.Today, the radical routes in the United States Democratic Party are also easy to understand.In fact, from Obama, the United States has begun the trend of American socialism.After Trump came to power, he completely denied some welfare policies of Obama's socialist nature, especially medical reform.This led to the rebound of the Democratic Party today.

The country has its own objective laws

The United States successfully escaped the European -style socialist movement of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and has always represented the most typical capitalism after World War II.So, will the late socialist revolution happen now in the United States?This is a very interesting theory and practical issue.However, in reality, the United States still has the most powerful conservativeism, especially when socialism in the United States means that interests are tilted to ethnic minorities and the bottom of the society.Conservative resistance will be huge.

The United States usually rarely discuss these issues because it involves political incorrect.But once it involves actual policies, the problem will float on the stage.Trump has denied Obama's medical reform policy.Furthermore, since Trump's power, some of the problems that have been regarded as politically incorrect have become less sensitive.In other words, even if the socialist revolution will occur in the United States, this revolution will not be too radical.

Of course, the political changes in the United States that have recently experienced may also lead to American institutional innovation, and ultimately produce a US system that is not only unique to the existing American system, but also different from the European welfare system.When the Soviet Union and the Soviet Group disintegrated, Liberal Liberty in the United States believed that Western democratic systems were the best system that humans could have, so it was also the end of history.However, the possibilities of new history are now open to the United States again.

The internal changes of the United States also show that people must take care of the US decline.In any case, the decline of the United States has a strong ideology in itself.Inside the United States, although many people are also discussing the decline of the United States, these are by no means singing the United States, but to remind the United States issues, especially the Chinese issue is mentioned on the agenda.

Outside the United States, those who believe that the United States is declining is often concerned about the bad things that the United States has done on the world stage, and I hope that the United States will decline as soon as possible, so that this world will be beautiful; and those who do not want the United States to decline,Then care about the good things that the United States has done. They believe that this world order is created by powerful United States. It is maintained by the United States and needs to continue to do so.

Although both believers or not believers, both sides can find their own experience arguments, but no matter what, the preconceived ideology hinders the objective assessment of American forces.

In the field of policy, whether you like the United States or not, people must make an objective assessment of the decline of the United States, otherwise they will cause wrong decisions and cause catastrophic results.Although globalization is closely connected by countries around the world, and the global village is formed, globalization has not changed the essence of the international community's unproop state.Not only that, it is precisely because of the mutual dependence or association between countries under globalization that the selfish consideration of a country will have a more serious negative impact on other countries.The trade war launched by the United States in recent years is an obvious example.

Furthermore, in the era of globalization, the struggle between hegemony and anti -hegemony, challenging the country and the challenging country will never stop.According to experience, no country can always dominate, and no country will never decline.The rise and fall of the country has its own objective laws.For the rise of the rise, it must be particularly patience for the existing hegemony countries.People cannot underestimate the US fear of the rise of other countries and the irrational behaviors brought by this sense of fear, nor can the United States determine that the United States has to curb the rise of other countries in order to maintain hegemony.Any emotional decision -making will lead to conflict or even war, and only with caution and rationality can realize and maintain world peace on the basis of protecting their own interests.

The author is the National University of Singapore Director of East Asia Research Institute

The article only represents personal point of view