Author: Liu Danian

When the Sino -US trade war at the end of November last November, the leaders of the two sides decided to temporarily retreat when they met at the G20 summit, and no additional tariffs were imposed, and the negotiations were issued. During the periodAfter another report, the two sides were once again fell into the war that levies tariffs on each other, and it was unexpectedly strong.

In 2018, the United States imported approximately US $ 550 billion in imports from mainland China, and had previously imposed 10%and 25%tariffs on 50 billion and 200 billion US dollars.On the 10th, the US $ 200 billion in products levied 10%tariffs on the 10th would be increased to 25%. In the future, it will be targeted at the other 300 billion US dollars of products that were exempted from the original exemption.It is always about 98%of imported products in mainland China.

In 2018, Mainland China imported approximately $ 140 billion from the United States. It had previously levied retaliation tariffs on about $ 100 billion. This time it was scheduled to increase the tariffs of 60 billion US dollars on June 1.About 40 billion US dollars have not yet been included.Therefore, from the perspective of the trade amount and revenge cover of both parties, the Sino -US trade war can be said to be the largest global trade confrontation in history.

Especially this time the United States will add new retaliation products, mostly people's livelihood consumer goods and information electronic products with close multinational supply chains, including mobile phones, laptops, garments, shoes and toys. ThereforeNot small, especially the mobile phone and laptop operators for international brand founders have a greater impact.In addition, it will also affect Taiwan's middle financial exports to the mainland. Taiwan's exports to the mainland will decline, and exports to other markets will increase.

The Sino -US trade war has greatly reduced the functions of Mainland China as a processing and production base. Land -funded and foreign -funded enterprises have begun to adjust the production layout. Taiwanese businessmen will return to Taiwan to invest more positive.The proportion of Taiwan's order and overseas production will significantly decline. How to grasp the opportunity of this wave of supply chain reorganization and capital transfer will be an important part of future economic and trade policies.

China and the United States do not concessions, but there are still several focus on observation in the future.First of all, US $ 300 billion products that will impose tariffs on mainland China will hold public hearing in June, and it will be officially implemented at the end of June as soon as the end of June.In response to the future development, it is recommended that the government can assist the possible industries, and actively participate in public hearing in conjunction with other supply chain companies to seek an opportunity for exemption.In addition, Sino -US leaders will meet at the G20 summit at the end of June at the end of June. Whether the peak will turn around, the uncertainty is still high.

Sino -US trade conflicts have risen, and the risk of global economic and trade atrophy has increased, which has a adverse effect on Taiwan, which has a deep international connection.Taiwan's economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year was 1.72%, and it faced the challenge of Bao 2 throughout the year, so short -term boosting economic measures must be strong.

The confrontation between China and the United States has taken shape. In addition to the emerging industries, such as 5G, AI, the dominant power, also actively use its own influence to suppress the opponent. For exampleThe ranks, the future development is worth noting.

Trump's re -election is bound to be re -elected next year. The American people are generally satisfied with the economic achievements brought by Trump, so that Trump's re -element will have a chance to watch.In addition to the current impact of the Sino -US trade war, Taiwan should also formulate trade and industrial policies that China and the United States have fallen into a long -term confrontation in the future.

(The author is the director of the Regional Development Research Center of the China Institute of Economics of China)