Written article: Ye Dehao

Following Trump on Friday (10th), a $ 200 billion of the original 10%additional tariffs of Chinese goods to 25%on time, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer will also be on Monday, US time (On the 13th) Details of the arrangement of equal tariffs on the remaining Chinese goods.

Although China has not announced a detailed retaliation policy, the People's Daily published a comment article on Monday, saying that China will never give up on major principles. It also states that the trade war has no winner. China does not want to fight, but it is not afraid of fighting.

Even if the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Sunday (12th), ... it is likely to meet with Trump at the G20 summit at the end of June.The momentum of momentum seems to indicate a long -lasting, more and more tariff war, it is not impossible to happen.

The question is: Does Trump really have the capital to fight this tariff war?

Tariffs to China are the American salary reduction

Although Trump has repeatedly stated that the tariff itself has been beneficial to the United States, Kudelo acknowledged that the new tariffs would be paid by US companies on Sunday (12th), pointing out that both parties must pay and bluntly that both parties will be damaged.

In fact, Trump himself knows this: he first opened twice to China last year, and a total of 25%additional tariffs involving a total of $ 50 billion in imports of goods were avoided.In the case, the impact on most American people is reduced to avoid losing support.

Later, 10%additional tariffs also avoided consumer products such as most clothes, but it could not help but affect electronic products, power and equipment, furniture, etc., involving a total value of nearly $ 10 billion in the total value of imported goods in China.

In addition, according to the recent (2014) global systematic research, about 25%of the imports of imports from China are intermediate products, which are used as the final production process for American manufacturers.The increase in these tariffs will increase the cost of American products, and finally pass it to consumers.

Under the gradual emergence of the tariff effect, the price of major domestic appliances in the United States has risen by nearly 9%since early 2018.

In addition to raising the original tariff at this moment, Trump seems to be imposed by 25%of the additional tariffs on all Chinese goods in the short term. In the case where American companies cannot adjust the supply chain in the short term, American consumers will bear high pricesIn disguise, it is the American salary reduction.

For Trump with tax cuts as its maximum substantial achievements, how to reduce the impact of tariff wars on US consumer goods prices will be a major challenge.

Tough diplomatic push high oil prices difficult to hide tariffs

However, the Trump administration's tough foreign policy made it more difficult for him to deal with this challenge.

The United States has recently put pressure on Iran and Venezuela's two large oil production powers to sanction and pressure, which will pressure the United States to further pressure the United States.

Venezuela's opposition Interim President Juan Guaido has now announced a meeting to communicate directly with the United States to discuss the possibility of military cooperation and make the Venezuela situation even more unstable.

In Iran, the situation is even more nervous.The United States officially revoked the exemption of multinational sanctions on Iraqi oil earlier this month, and sent the Lincoln aircraft carrier in the district; the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also visited Iraq, which has a close relationship with Iran.

The United States' local friendly countries have also reported news that is not good for Iran.The Arab Emirates (UAE) refers to the STRAIT of Hormuz that 4 merchant ships have threatened to block in the Persian Gulf Hormuz in Iran on Sunday.It is possible to start with strong start and attack Israel; Saudi Arabia also stated on Monday that two tankers were destroyed.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard distributed a hard word, saying that American aircraft carriers were not threatened, but to attack the target.

In addition to the Iranian oil export problem, the district is an international sea transportation for oil, accounting for more than 30 % of the global proportion. If the situation is tense, oil prices will rise sharply.

The development of these international situations will be pushed up to the US price level of almost one car and the cost of enterprises, making Trump more difficult to hide the economic impact of the Sino -US tariff war.

The next wave of federal fiscal crisis is killed within the month

In addition to the blow to ordinary US voters, the next crisis of the US federal government's finance has quietly arrived.This is the next round of federal budget disputes that must be resolved before September 30.

I still remember that the federal government stopped at the beginning of the year at the beginning of the year, causing the United States to lose at least $ 11 billion.The impact of a new round of budget disputes will be even more serious.If the budget is not approved by the Congress before the period, the federal government will immediately reduce the $ 100 billion expenditure in October, and all expenses except social security and medical expenses will be affected.

What's more serious, the US federal government's upper limit of US $ 22 trillion in Treasury bonds was exhausted as early as March. At presentThe savings saved will be exhausted at the end of September. If the budget is not approved, the federal government will even have the risk of debt defaults, causing economic recession and a global financial crisis.

Moreover, the impact of the upper limit of the Treasury bonds has emerged one after another: the short -term government bond issuance of the second quarter of this year has gradually decreased; the Ministry of Finance also announced earlier this month that the Ministry of Finance may be forced to stop issuing bonds from July to December this year.

Trump is currently in a state of stalemate with the Democratic Party on the construction of a new round of border wall funds and disaster relief expenses.Moreover, although the fiscal crisis is approaching, Washington politics focuses on all the energy on the political struggle MDash; MDash; when Trump comprehensively prevents anyone from cooperating with Congress with administrative privileges, the Democratic House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam (AdamSchiff accused Trump of forcing the Democratic Party to launch an impeachment case that did not support the majority of the people in order to obtain political interests.

According to this situation, this round of Congress fiscal warfare will become another tough battle.Therefore, unless Trump is disregarding the economic downturn, it must alleviate the Sino -US tariff war in the next few months to cope with the next battle of domestic politics.

Trade conflict outside China

In addition to unfavorable factors such as the US economy, diplomacy, and domestic political situation, Trump not only dealt with Chinese countries on foreign trade disputes.At the end of last year, he seemed to have died in the hands of Congress with the US -Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA) reached at the end of last year.During the month, it was decided whether to issue a 25%car tariff on the European and Japanese parties.

Due to its large market, the threat of tariffs is indeed quite powerful.However, to start a trade war to the world, it is self -destruction.The European Central Bank issued a report at the end of last month that the United States was simulated by economic models to impose 10%tariffs to the world, and countries around the world have adopted the corresponding tariffs: the first year of the United States will decrease by about 2.2%. Instead, China will beBenefiting from tariffs on the United States, 0.6%increased by 0.6%.

If Trump will continue to put pressure on trade outside China to obtain better trade conditions, he seems to have to let the Sino -US tariff war be relieved first.

Opening Trump 32 years ago, the art that invited the shot of the shot to publish a masterpiece (The Art of the DEAL), many people think that Trump's tough practices currently impose tariffs on China and CanadaOptions), the negotiation skills of the use chip (user your level)Just.

However, Trump's domestic and foreign fronts are too large and too wide, and the development of the current situation may force him to use another move: Deliver the Goods mdash; mdash;Especially the situation of his agricultural state supporters) laid a strong needle.

Trump himself wrote in his masterpiece: You can do a lot of publicity, attract media reports, and pet publicity, but if you do not distribute some benefits, people will always understand.

In the case of adhering to its principled position in China, Trump seems to only end the Sino -US tariff war as soon as possible, win victory for himself, distribute benefits to the people, to prepare to welcome all kinds of challenges at home and abroad.There is also a re -election in 2020.