Yu Zeyuan: Sino -US trade disputes enter the new stage

Ji Yan Chunqiu

After 11 rounds of economic and trade consultations, the Sino -US trade war has been upgraded.The scene here is somewhat similar to the Korean battlefield in the early 1950s.

After the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950, the Chinese Volunteer Army crossed the Yalu River in October of the same year.Since July 1951, the Chinese and North Korea -headed UN troops led by the United States have entered a situation and talked about. On the one hand, the two sides repeatedly competed near the 38th line. On the other hand, they bargained on the negotiating table.In July 1953, the two sides signed a suspension agreement at the Banmen Store and ended the Korean War.

Decades later, China and the United States have launched an unprecedented trade war.After more than a year of negotiations, the two sides still did not negotiate.The United States announced that it will impose tariffs on more Chinese products from May 10, and China has also stated that it will take necessary countermeasures, and the Sino -US trade war will continue to upgrade.

However, while the United States and China upgrade the trade war, they also emphasize to continue to negotiate.Like the Korean battlefield of that year, neither side did not quickly defeat the opponent's grasp. On the one hand, they could feel the pain by letting each other, on the one hand, to maximize their own interests.

For China, which is relatively weak and in the rise, it is the top choice to resolve the Sino -US trade war as soon as possible, so China ’s expectations for trade negotiations are even more urgent.However, if the negotiation must be premised on the premise of major principles, China can only choose to fight.

What is the major principles that China is unwilling to give in?Chinese Vice Premier Liu He gave a clear statement the day before yesterday, that is, the three core concerns of China: First, all the additional tariffs were canceled.Tariffs are the starting point of the trade dispute between the two parties. If an agreement is to be reached, the tariffs imposed must be canceled.The second is that the number of trade procurement must be in line with reality. The two parties have consensus on trade procurement figures in Argentina and should not be changed at will.The third is to improve the balance of text. Any country has its own dignity. The text of the agreement must be balanced. At present, there are still some key issues to be discussed.

To put it bluntly, China clearly requires the United States to cancel all tariffs, requiring trade procurement figures to not exceed the consensus reached during the first meeting between the US dollar at the Argentine meeting.Essence

The United States had previously accused China of the aggressiveness of the agreement and demanded to be re -negotiated. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to use tariff sticks to force China to obey their commitments.But the differences between the two sides disclosed by China are obviously more different and larger than the United States said.With the strong style of the Trump administration, the core concern of China to get a positive response from the United States, I am afraid it is not easy.

In this way, the Sino -US economic and trade negotiations to reach a satisfactory agreement between both parties within one or two will be a difficult task.The two sides can only fight the trade war first to continue to test the opponent and their tolerance.

In fact, the Sino -US trade war began for nearly a year, and the losses of the two sides were not as great as the outside world began to imagine.Especially in the Chinese economy, not only did there not be a significant decline in some people's predictions, but the momentum of rebounding in the first quarter of this year.Chinese society and online public opinion responded to the US tariffs to increase tariffs much more calm than last year.

Of course, this is not to say that the trade war is good for China's economy and society, but China's huge market, sound industrial category, and the ruling party's ability to regulate the economy and society, which has underestimated the toughness of the Chinese side to bear the impact of the trade war.

Perhaps it is precisely because China's economy and society have endured the impact of the trade war for nearly a year. China has more confidence to deal with the United States. It is better to talk to the other party and do not conclude the alliance.It is not difficult to imagine that if China accepted the other party's demands in order to get rid of the U.S. extreme pressure, China will not only be taken out of the other party on the economic and trade issues, but the political risks may also be put on the stage.This is of course not the result of the ruling party's willingness to see.

At the same time, in the face of the aggressive high -pressure means of the United States, the Chinese official did not have a big counterattack, but focused on promoting the stability of the Chinese economy and consumption, optimistic in the prospects, and repeatedly shouted to the United States, calling on the two parties to go each other, in equal negotiation, in equal negotiationSolving problems and win -win cooperation.This low posture is obviously more valuable than faster.

The United States' comprehensive upgrade of the trade in China marks a new stage of bilateral economic and trade relations.Even in the future, China and the United States have reached relevant agreements, and the two parties may not have an endless skin on economic and trade issues.However, it is certain that the Sino -US comprehensive trade war is not good for the two sides and the world economy. Even if it is difficult, negotiations are an inevitable choice for both parties.