Ye Shengzhou: Neither China and the United States have lost their rationality. Trump suddenly changes his face and will not bring changes in the direction and rhythm of negotiations, but the details of the negotiations must be affected.
The dawn of the Sino -US trade war was looking at, and the twists and turns were born again.On May 6, US President Trump suddenly announced on Twitter that the tariffs levied by US $ 200 billion in goods from May 10 have increased from 10%to 25%, and threatenedA 25%tariff for 100 million US dollars of Chinese goods.This extreme voltage pushed up thousands of waves. The global market regretted panic, and the Asia -Pacific stock market fell in an all -round way. In particular, the Chinese stock market was full of sorrows, and the black Monday, which encountered thousands of stocks.
The cause of changing face: The bottom line of the two sides is too optimistic about the status quo
These three days are heartbroken, the news is full of sky, true and false, false and real.In fact, the sky did not collapse, but it was the darkness before dawn, and the sprint before the end of the line.May wish to peel the cocoon and draw on, focus on analyzing the official voice of China and the United States, there may be five basic judgments:
── The tenth round of consultation ended smoothly.American trade representative Littichzer and Minister of Finance Mnuchin visited China from April 30th to May 1st to conduct the tenth round of trade negotiations. After talking with Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, Mnuchin affirmed this round on TwitterFull of results.Obviously reported Trump as soon as possible, so he told reporters optimistically in the White House on May 3 that Sino -US trade negotiations were progressing very well.
──In the Chinese side test the bottom line of the United States to make concessions.On May 6, Mnuchin revealed that about 90%of the agreement was determined, and the United States originally hoped to reach an agreement this week (press: refer to Liu He's 11th round of consultations in the United States).However, the US weekend (prescription: on the evening of May 3) received a new draft agreement from China. It has withdrawn the statements that have been negotiated before on some issues, which may significantly change the two parties (press: reached).protocol.People familiar with the matter specifically disclosed to Bloomberg that the United States companies that China wants to share in China to share patent technology and other intellectual property rights in China have previously agreed to modify some of the laws as the agreement;Agreement, and administrative regulations.This is angry with the United States.
── The United States toughly counterattack the Chinese bottom line.According to Bloomberg, Littich believes that China is out of the way of revising legal issues and discard part of the commitment in the negotiation process. He was angry and reported to Trump.Trump changed his face, and asked the reader to pay attention not to turn his face. The reason given in the tweet was that the progress was slow. They (pressed: China) tried to re -negotiate.The probability is to play the problem, and bite another bite and bite it.
Some Singapore and Chinese scholars are analyzed in an interview with the Singapore United Morning Post respectively. This is a very typical conflict between the legal culture and methods of legal culture and behavior of the two countries. The administrative supervision instructions are actually more useful and efficient than modifying the law.Sincerity.The author does not agree.The common sense of law is the superior law than the lower law. The administrative order or administrative regulations issued by the State Council must obey the law passed by the National People's Congress and its Standing Committee, and change the law with administrative means.
──China defaults to a new position.At a regular press conference on the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 7, the reporter asked US officials (prescribed: Refers to Littichizer) criticizing China ’s stance in some substantial commitments. What do you comment on this?A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs replied: The negotiation itself is the process of discussion, and the difference between the two parties is normal.Trying to lightly describe the changes in China's position, limited to discussions and tentatives, and did not put it into action, implying that the United States did a lot.
── Both sides are too optimistic about the status quo.China dares to test the U.S. bottom line first, and the United States dares to counterattack China to testify and tentatively test the Chinese bottom line. The important reason is that the economy in the first quarter is significantly better than expected, and it is considered to have a better foundation.Trump dares to change his face. The main reason is that the initial value of GDP growth in the first quarter announced by the US Department of Commerce on April 26 was 3.2%, which was significantly higher than the market expectations of 2.5%.He occupies an absolute advantage.
China dares to test it first, but also thinks that the most difficult bottom valley has passed.On April 17, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced preliminary accounting, and GDP increased by 6.4%year -on -year in the first quarter. On April 19, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held that the economic operation in the first quarter was generally stable, better than expected, and good start.Six -stable policy, instead mentioning structural deleveraging, insisting on the positioning of the house for living, not used to speculate.
Agreement goals: The direction of the direction is unchanged, and the details must change
The United States wants to get more oily. If China wants to bleed less, it is unique to trying to maximize their own interests.Fortunately, the two parties did not lose their rationality, and both showed the sincerity and flexibility of reaching an agreement.Trump suddenly changes his face and will not bring changes in the direction and rhythm of negotiations, but the details of the negotiations must be affected.
──The two sides did not talk about collapse and even unwilling to talk about collapse.On May 6th, Trump announced the addition of tariffs on tariffs. It clearly stated that trade negotiations with China were continuing. There was no radical statement interruption of negotiations and turning away. Instead, he complained that progress was slow.On the same day, the two countries' trade negotiations will continue to be carried out on the same day, and the Chinese delegation will visit Washington on Thursday and Friday.China and the United States have a trade war, and China will inevitably lose more losses, but China has more patience and longer; Trump must be re -elected, and must have beautiful achievements and economic data on voters.
China expresses sincerity.At the regular press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 6th, 7th, and 8th, the spokesman's response was mild restraint, and there was no condemnation to the United States' sudden change of face.Work together and do each other. The Chinese team is preparing to go to the United States for consultation. The Chinese side does not avoid contradictions, has sincerity in continuing to consult, and strives to reach a mutually beneficial and win -win agreement.It is all the positions and languages of fire -fighting and fire extinguishing, and the possibility that China has not ruled out that China has reached an agreement, restores the original commitment, and re -concessions.
At 14:05 on May 7th, the official website of the Ministry of Commerce of China released heavy news: At the invitation of the US trade representative Littichzer and the Minister of Finance Mnuchin (pressed: This sentence was a typical set of words in the past, but at this moment clearly indicates that the United States wants to wantContinue to negotiate), Liu He will visit the United States from May 9th to 10th in accordance with the original plan to conduct the eleventh round of consultations with the United States on economic and trade issues (press: clearly indicate that China also wants to continue negotiations).The titled spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce should inquire about the conversation, but there are no silver in the place without silver, and deliberately showing his reserved calm to the outside world.After 21 minutes, the Xinhua News Agency issued a draft, but it was more simply and more accurate, and Liu He directly went to the United States to negotiate.Whether Liu He's visit to the group will be extended after two days after the visits will be extended for two days, it is an important observation indicator to determine that this round of negotiations reached the final agreement.
──The international community has both appeals and pressure.As far as economic strength is concerned, although the United States and China are the boss and the second child, it is impossible to fully be willful in the global village, and one after another caused public anger.The great powers must have the spirit and responsibility of a large country, otherwise it is difficult to convince the crowd and it is difficult to become a leader.The world despises Trump, jealous of China, and longing for China and the United States, and there are many prosperity of China and the United States (including Russia, North Korea, Vietnam, etc.).The problem is that the boss and the second child are comprehensively confronting, and it is bound to affect the pond fish. Everyone thinks about a good life.Therefore, the mentality of various countries is contradictory. Even if the American allies are persuaded, they will not choose the border easily, but keep a neutral balance.On May 7, Ragard, President of the International Monetary Fund, said: The tension between the United States and China threatens the global economy;The upgrade of tensions in trade is upgraded to keep the global economy on the track of growth.
── The most appropriate agreement signing is Osaka instead of Washington.Foreign media reported that China had proposed that Trump held a summit in Hainan, Hainan, China in Hanoi, Vietnam, and signed an agreement in Hainan, China, and was rejected by the United States.Trump once said that he will receive the Chinese Heads of state (press: implying an agreement in the White House) in the White House, and the probability will be rejected by the Chinese side.
According to the existing strength of China and the United States, China makes a greater concession and more normal. Especially after the United States imposed tariffs, probablyRate will force the Chinese side to make new concessions.It can be asserted that the Sino -US trade agreement will not be completely equal. China can safeguard national dignity and sovereignty, core interests (such as Taiwan) and long -term interests (such as AI, 5G).For example, the Chinese head of state went to the White House, and there was the suspect of signing the league under the muzzle, which harmed the dignity and national emotions of the country.It is inevitable that a series of treaties signed with Western powers in modern Chinese history, the Chinese have painful and angry memories of this.
Japan will hold the G20 summit on June 28. China and the United States will sign an agreement during this period, and both parties can be accepted.China has to make more concessions on the content of the agreement. Choosing to sign this occasion is not only responding to the concerns of the international community, but also advocating multilateralism. There are also the remaining 18 leaders of the United Nations, WTO, IMF, World Bank and other international organizations.In the hidden guarantee, if the United States will tear the agreement in the future, the cost of dishonesty needs to be weighed.
── The agreement should not include secret clauses.At a regular press conference on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 7, a reporter verified a sensitive issue: the economic and trade agreement reached by China and the United States will include the secret clauses of China's commitment to reduce the import of oil from Iran.A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: I don't know where you got the news, I didn't hear it.This is neither acknowledged nor denying it.There are not unusual secret clauses in the international treaty. However, since the Ten rounds of trade between China and the United States, Trump has continued to actively put on the media for the media.If the secret clauses that are beneficial and disadvantaged in the agreement, Trump, a strong and strong mouth, may be leaked on Twitter someday; or senior American officials deliberately leaked to the American media based on political considerations,The rapid spread to China has brought great passiveness to the Chinese government.Chinese public opinion and emotions must be a major factors that China needs to consider when negotiating.If you have to sign a secret clause, in order to achieve the balance of peering, you should seek the essence of the United States on the core interests of China.
China Yingying: The accumulation becomes qualitative, changing space in time
The Sino -US trade negotiations have talked about ten rounds at the level of the Deputy Prime Minister alone, and they are very clear with each other.The elite duel of the two big powers, there are countless teams, resource support, and countless simulation exercises behind them. It is almost impossible to make low -level errors.The change of Trump's face this time will promote the Chinese side to more accurately judge the American strategic intention, to be more soberly to understand his gap, and more resolutely practicing internal skills.
── The only certainty is Trump's uncertainty.The art of Trump is good at trading. He moved the moves in business negotiations directly to the country's negotiations, and blessed with the strength of the only superpowers.His virtue is not equipped, but he may not be able to match. He is ruthless and cunning.In June 2018, China and the United States reached a framework framework. Because the sincerity of the Chinese side expressed the signing agreement was too eager, it was regarded by the United States as a ransure to concession.Trump’s credit records are so bad that the left and right wing forces in the United States have reached a tough consensus on China. Even if the trade agreement is signed, it is temporarily retained.Geopolitics, network security and other issues are provoking again.
──The gap between China and the United States is obvious.China is the second economy, and its comprehensive national strength has made significant progress. However, in the fields of finance, technology, military, politics, culture, and systems, there is a clear gap with the boss. There is no hard work for 30 or 50 years.The publicity of my country is very good, and it is easy to mislead the people and internationals.On May 6, Trump tweeted, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a limit of thousands of shares, and the image of online buzzwords was described as weak and indifferent. This is a true comparison of the existing strength of China and the United States.On the same day, the People's Bank of China decided to implement a lower deposit reserve ratio of small and medium -sized banks from May 15, 2019, releasing the long -term funds of about 280 billion yuan.This decision -making decision is not unusual, obviously prepared, but the announcement time is very strange. It is no longer the previous Friday, but 09:29:27 on Monday, which is only earlier than the opening time of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities 09:30.After 33 seconds, it seems to have obvious intention to boost market confidence and hedge the risk of external risks.Unfortunately, this good news has little effect. On the day, the Shanghai Index, Shenzhen Index, and the GEM finger fell 5.58%, 7.56%, and 7.94%, respectively.
──Mind the guidelines for the highest strategic guidance of the beauty.The United States has positioned China as a strategic competitor, amendments to the country, and economic aggressors. It is aggressive and tight, and the Chinese side gritted the teeth.For example, the frequency of navigation freedom of the US military in the South China Sea and Taiwan has recently increased significantly; on May 2-3, 32 countries held a global 5G security conference in Prague to reject Huawei;Missile Treaty; in early June, the Indo -Pacific Strategic Report will be released at the Shangri -La Security Forum in Singapore.In January 1938, Bai Chongxi originally proposed at the Wuhan Military Conference to win the victory as a big victory, and changed the time to change the time to become the highest strategic guidance of the Anti -Japanese Japan.Today, China may wish to do it opposite, change the accumulation to qualitative change, and change the space with time as the highest strategic guidance policy.Try to drag as much as possible, which is the most beneficial to China.
──Overly plan to implement a series of national strategic plans.Modifying the law of the law to protect intellectual property rights is also the urgent needs of Chinese technology and enterprises.Before joining the WTO, there were thousands of laws and regulations that abolished, established, and modified in China.However, sovereignty cannot be concessions. For example, if the United States has imposed tariffs on China again, it cannot be required that China will not promise not to retaliate. China reserves the right to counterattack.Can't completely withdraw.
The blessing of the blessing, the blessing of the blessing.China should work hard to do its own business, adhere to the unwavering of reform and opening up, turn stress into motivation, change challenges into opportunities, practice internal skills, make less effort, slower power, and make standards.The development strategies such as revitalizing, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the Belt and Road Initiative have raised the Yellow River ecological belt as the national development strategy as soon as possible.Essence
(Note: The author is a researcher at the Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute of Renmin University of China, WeChat public account: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
