Author: Yi Xianrong
Before the opening of the Chinese stock market on May 6, the domestic WeChat group had boiled. Many people were exclaimed that the stock market would fall on that day.I did not expect that the US President Trump would suddenly turn his face about Sino -US trade negotiations at this time.Although I have been emphasizing that as long as the US President Trump is in office, he is the biggest uncertainty and risk of the global financial market.Because Trump may turn his face at any time.This irreplaceable and unpredictable uncertainty is of course the biggest risk of the global financial market.However, for most people, I did not expect that Trump would turn his face at this time, and to overthrow the 10th round of Sino -US trade negotiations.
Judging from the recent rounds of the atmosphere of Sino -US trade negotiations, Trump has maintained a very optimistic attitude towards these Sino -US trade negotiations.However, the face -changing king published an article on May 5th ’s social platform Twitter, threatening to increase the 10%tariffs currently imposed on US $ 200 billion in Chinese imported goods to 25%this Friday (May 10), andIt also threatened to impose 25%of punitive tariffs on another $ 325 billion in Chinese goods.Trump's remarks immediately triggered a shock in the global financial market.On May 6, the Chinese stock market and the Hong Kong stock market have plummeted, and the exchange rate of the RMB on the offshore market has plummeted.The Asian and European market stock market exchange markets are also difficult to be spared.
The reason why Trump does this is of course related to his nature.As the saying goes, rivers and mountains are easy to change, and the nature is difficult to move.Trump is 72 years old, and although he is not a good businessman, he will definitely make his life that he thinks the most in his life.According to the introduction of Trump's autobiography Trump: The Art of the Deal, Trump's usual negotiation method is the first to set the theme of negotiations to determine the worst results of the negotiation. On this basis, on the negotiations, on the negotiationsIn the final stage, do your best to make a bluffing momentum and make full use of the chips that are good for yourself, so that your opponent will be convinced in order to obtain the maximum benefits.Therefore, at the time of the Sino -US negotiations, Trump will also make this trick, hoping to use the U.S. tariff advantage to make himself the maximum benefits.Negotiation Agreement.However, Trump suddenly played so much this time, it is difficult to say how to end.
In addition, the Chinese government's overall performance should be decent on the sudden emergence of U.S. President Trump.For example, because of this unexpected thing (It is estimated that there is a lesson in the front car that Trump and Kim Jong -un suddenly turned around in Vietnam, China will also expect that Trump may come to this hand and considerIf the strategy of responding to this situation), in order to prevent the stock market from falling in control, China's stock market announced a targeted reduction before opening the market. Small and medium -sized banks will implement lower deposit reserves from next Wednesday to the market.Release 280 billion yuan of long -term funds.At the same time, it is reported that if the stock market risk increases, the national team is ready to enter the market at any time, and domestic banks will also set up restrictions on the decline in the RMB.
Regarding Trump's sudden turn, the Chinese government did not immediately respond. The domestic official media and online news did not mention Trump threatened to impose tariffs.Until the post -routine press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the afternoon of May 6, Geng Shuangcai, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the priority was to hope that the United States and China would reach a mutually beneficial and win -win agreement on the basis of mutual respect. The Chinese team is preparing to go to the United States for consultation.However, it was not disclosed whether it would depart on Wednesday as scheduled, nor did he answer whether it was still led by the Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council of China.
This time the Chinese government did not dance with the incident that Trump, but instead observed its changes. This can not only comprehensively stabilize market confidence, but also defeat Trump's most important tricks to create things.There is a word of words in Yitian Tu Longji very well.He crossed him and shined in the river.He came to himself, and I was so angry.This is the essence of Jiuyang Zhenjing.In other words, no matter how strong the other party, no matter how fierce the other party, no matter how sinister the other party, he can be the breeze and the moon. Although it can be added to me, it cannot have any damage to me.Therefore, for US President Trump, his biggest demand is to get more votes in what ways, and he is currently the purpose of various moves at home and abroad.And these moves will be almost the same.Therefore, China has to grasp Trump's moves, and let his ideas go four or two pounds, with small and big, based on its own.
In addition, China should formulate short -term and medium- and long -term response methods for the current Sino -US trade friction and Sino -US relations.Judging from the current situation, what China should do is to stabilize the footsteps and ensure that the domestic economic tone is not shaken.Recently, some policies adopted by the Chinese government are here.From the middle and long term, adhere to the spirit emphasized by the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee and the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and we must closely focus on the decisive role of the market in the resource allocation to deepen the reform of the economic system, and promote the economy to be more efficient, fair, and more accessible.Continuous development.This requires that China has not yet developed the economic system of the decisive allocation of resources in the market mechanism to conduct a comprehensive deepening reform, so that the law of the market that plays a decisive role in the allocation of the market has penetrated into every aspect and market of China's economic life.This is the most successful experience in China's economic reform and opening up in 40 years.At the same time, in response to the Sino -US trade conflict, the strategic choice should be: the ultimate goal of trade liberalization; the best tariff adjustment and strengthening intellectual property protection as a promotion method; by deepening the reform of the domestic economic system reformTarget.
(The author is a professor at the School of Economics of Qingdao University)
