Society: The progress of the Sino -US trade war and the impact on Taiwans econom

Source: Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times

Since the start of the Sino -US trade war in 2018, it has been described as two elephant fights. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, the economic scale of China and the United States will reach 21.4 trillion and $ 14.2 trillion in 2019.That is to say, since the US economy surpassed the EU and Canada GDP in 2015, this year it will further wider the gap, which is more than $ 2.7 trillion than the EU with a economic scale of 18.7 trillion -about a British or French economic scale, and ChinaThe economy will exceed the total GDP of US $ 13.6 trillion in the euro zone this year.

China and the United States are concerned about each other's body and continuous disputes. If the contradictions between the two countries continue to expand, it is difficult to guarantee that it will not fall into the so -called Xiu Daxide trap.Related discussions refer to a newly rising country to challenge the existing power, and the existing power will inevitably respond to this threat, making the war unavoidable.However, President Trump's start of a trade war is that he does not want to fall into the trap of the golden Delberg. In this regard, it is believed that in the process of global power transfer.Ordering will cause chaos and order of the global economy. Therefore, the United States will make China a responsible big country through the trade war.

In addition, the collision of the reform agenda between China and the United States is also the cause of disputes.The US economic model has always been overseas foundry, and then imported the final finished product for its domestic consumption.The top three products imported from China from China are computers, smartphones and clothing products, and these three major products are mostly American brands, so Chinese companies are only responsible for processing and assembly of downstream supply chain.When Trump was running for the president in 2016, he took the banner of bringing jobs from China to the United States. After being elected, Trump began to tax on overseas foundry and imported products. The ultimate goal isIn the United States, the reform agenda that means the US economy is from a world market to try to retrieve the spirit of the world's factories.

China's economic model is exactly the opposite of the United States. Most Chinese companies are the part of the Asian multinational supply chain. The purpose is to supply the demand for the US market.During the global financial crisis in 2009, in order to maintain more than 9%of economic growth and a 5%export decline, China sacrificed up to 4 trillion yuan stimulus schemes, and it took 24%of the fixed investment of the year.As a result of excessive investment, the economy suffers from internal injuries -overcapacity, and the Chinese economy must try to de -capacity, deleveraging, and regulating structure, that is, promoting blood circulation and removing blood stasis, actively boosting domestic demand and trying to reduce the foreign demand market.Therefore, the reform agenda of China's economy is transformed from a world factory to the future world market.

Although the reform agenda of China and the United States, although the goals are the opposite, they must not be resolved in a conflict.The source of the Sino -US trade war comes from Article 301 under the 1974 trade law of the United States. This clause claims that the US trade opponent's policy or behavior violates the obligations to the economic and trade agreement with the US;Authorization can increase the country's tariffs, claim compensation, or ask for a bilateral agreement with the United States.It is worth noting that this bilateral protocol can go to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA).In December 2018, the Sino-US negotiations since the G-20 Xichuan Association, basically both parties will negotiate in the direction of settlement. In the future, the upcoming bilateral agreement will regulate the six major issues: technical transfer, smart property rights, non-tariffs, non-tariffsObstacles, service industries, agriculture and exchange rates.From the perspective of topics, except for state -owned business subsidies and tariff declines, it has almost reached the structure of bilateral free trade agreements.

Therefore, if Beijing proposes to sign a bilateral free trade agreement with Washington, it will help implement the reform agenda of both China and the United States.Then the free trade agreement has always had the effect of accelerating reforms. In fact, China can effectively introduce the pressure of the United States to eliminate the internal opposition to reform forces.However, the Free Trade Agreement will definitely involve state -owned enterprise reform. However, state -owned enterprises are the most unable to compromise and concessions in Beijing. Therefore, although there are agreements in China and the United States in the future, they emphasize that state -owned enterprises need to be stronger, superior, and bigger ...The government is unlikely to sacrifice the reform of state -owned enterprises and increase the future agreement to the specifications of the free trade agreement.

The Sino -US trade war has allowed many Taiwanese businessmen to invest and operate in China to return to their hometowns.strict.According to the information announced by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwanese businessmen will invest more than 200 billion Taiwan dollars.If Taiwan's GDP in 2019, that is, Taiwanese businessmen's backlifting effect on economic growth is at least 1.1 percentage points.

In the upcoming Sino -US agreement, China will purchase US energy, agricultural products and industrial products within 6 years, with a total value of 1.2 trillion dollars and $ 200 billion per year.This procurement will inevitably lead to the effect of trade transfer. Although the export structure of the United States and Taiwan in the Chinese market is not high, there is still a certain degree of overlapping for automotive components, machinery and equipment, chemical products, etc.Barclays Bank is estimated to derive a 19.9 billion US dollar impact on Taiwan, and the negative impact on Taiwan's GDP growth is about 0.5 percentage points each year.In the first year, the benefit was greater than the disadvantages, that is, the return investment of the return investment is greater than the trade transfer damage. However, in the next 5 years, the Taiwan economy must still propose a valid response.