Author: Wang Jiahao, Luo Jinyi
As expected to be a victory in the presidential election of Ukraine, amateur politics adds another example.In 2004, Ukraine experienced the Orange Revolution. After 10 years, there was an independent square revolution, but it has never been able to establish democracy and the rule of law.The election campaign in Hong Kong also occasionally seemed to be a political figure. In recent years, there are many. Perhaps Ukrainian experience can bring us a little association and reflection.
National sense of politics and weakness.
Since the Ukrainian crisis broke out in 2013, the country's economy has been weak and the people's living standards have not improved.The Ukraine economy is monopolized by oligopoly businessmen, and nearly 60 % of the activities are carried out in non -competitive forms.The current President Poroshenko has launched various trade preferential benefits, but there is no reform of the economic structure and the business environment (such as the judicial system, tax system, antitrust law, etc.). Overseas investment has never been attracted.To get the ideal treatment.
The people are eager to create hope for new faces outside the formulation. This idea is based on the public's sense of political power, and hopes that political amateur will break the dull situation.There are 44 candidates for the presidential election of Ukraine, which is the crown of previous sessions; followed by only 24 in 2004.The number of candidates has a record high, reflecting that the public has lost confidence in political institutions and governance Mdash; Mdash; Poroshenko's opposition rate is as high as 70%, and the degree of dislocation of parliament and cabinet members is 80%and 74%, respectively.In fact, foreigners have successfully involved in election politics. In recent years, it is not uncommon in the international community.
Zelei has no political experience, and only play the presidential role in the TV series people's public servants.Instead, he boldly take the lack of experience in politics, clear concepts or political platform as a selling point, and threatened to choose a political amateur to join the governance team.He abandoned the traditional campaign project, rarely held a general conference and interviews with the media, but made good use of new media for publicity and announced political platforms in social media.These techniques have been supported by young voters. In the first round of the first round of voting, voters who support his voters are 18 to 39 years old.
During the campaign, the former Prime Minister Jimo Sumko said that after being elected, he would raise the salary of workers and reduce the public business expenditure (as a result, she failed to rank among the decision); Poroshenko also threatened to retake the Crimea that Russia's annexed.Different from the populist politicians to issue a political check at will, Zeelianzki's campaign slogan is not promised, and it will not be disappointing.It means that he will return politics to the people, and let the people vote for issues such as Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.The referendum seems to be able to make up for the defects of democratic democracy, but it is often contrary to their desires in practice, which may bring the disadvantages of excessive simplification of issues, intensifying social opposition, and low voting rates.The Brexit referendum a few years ago has been nearly very close to the end, exposing the defects of direct democracy.
In terms of economic affairs, Zelei Sky can only play the role of an initiator.Ukrainian Parliament-Presidential System. According to the new constitution of 2004, the president decided to defense and diplomacy, and the economic policy was chaired by the Prime Minister; how to reform a weak economy depends more on the parliamentary elections held at the end of the year.It is expected that the new council will be divided from 8 to 10 political parties, and the joint government is likely to occur.
Ukraine's priority should be separated from political and business separation to prevent oligarchs from manipulating politics.Ukraine's greedy wind rampant should also be attributed to members of Members to enjoy judicial exemption mdash; mdash; many wealthy merchants run for elections, and even buy seats with money to avoid criminal responsibilities, seizure and arrests; they are willing to deal with the government in exchange for personal interests, and at the same timeObstructing economic reform.Zelei Sky said that he would seize the judicial exemption of the president, parliamentarians and judges, and see if his new government really gave up privileges and practice his bold initiative.You must know that Zellezki seems to be closely related to the oligopoly businessman, and there is doubts about the determination to promote reform.IHOR KOLOMOISKY, a wealthy Ukrainian merchant in Israel, is a bank tycoon and is also involved in oil, steel, aviation and media industry.He has already predicted that Zellennki will run for president, and his think tanks have also participated in the election project of Zellennki.Although the two denied any political connection, the outside world questioned that Zernezki would become a puppet of Kolomoiski and assisted him to listen to politics.
Is it possible for pro -Europe to not fight against Russia?
Similar to other candidates, Zeleiski advocates maintaining a integration with the West.The Ukrainian crisis is returned, and most people tend to the West. Last year, they would join the EU and NATO to write to the Constitution.In the past, candidates for pro -Russia and European European candidates could not be held. However, in recent years, the people's conditions have changed, breaking the traditional things in the past.In this election, Russia's endorsement became the kiss of demons. The receiving Russian candidate Yuriy Boyko's voting rate in the first round of voting was only fourth.
Different from the tough anti -Russian stance of Poroshenko, Zelezki tends to talk to Moscow in order to talk to Moscow.Two months ago, the polls of the Institute of International Scholars in the Institute of International Scholars found that nearly 60 % of the respondents were positive for Russia.Since the anti -Russian mood softened by the people, Zelei Sky advocating to deal with Russia with mild means, which is obviously more popular.He will speak Russian, and performing arts is mainly Russian; he has criticized the Poroshenke government to suppress Russian, which will only exacerbate social differentiation.The Russian population of Ukraine is concentrated in the eastern and southern regions. They are politically anti -Russia, but at the same time they resist the national construction project led by Ukraine.
For Zessaki's victory, the Russian folk response was positive, while the official was watching.According to the polls of the Russian Public Opinion Center (VTSIOM), more than 30%of the Russians support Zellennki to be elected, and only 1%of Polscako supports Parapho.They expect that the new president can inject new elements into Ukrainian politics and improve relations between the two countries.The Kremlin has clearly stated that he is unwilling to deal with the tough anti -Russian Poroshenko, and Zelei Sky may bring a transfer to the normalization of the Russian -Ukraine relationship.Many comments say that Zerrenki lacks diplomatic experience, and Russia will take advantage of the opportunity.However, French President Macron and Trump are newcomers in politics, but France -Russia and the United States and Russia have not seen a turn.
Prospects: The power of people's conditions is unpredictable
Former President VIKTOR Yushchenko was in the orange revolution, but the anti -corruption movement only hit the flies and did not fight tigers, and rarely touched corrupt officials.Even corruption scandals.How can Zeelianzki's words shake the oligopoly, how can he not make life?His pro -Western positions are at best the publicity of the people today. The integration of Ukraine and the West must have a substantial breakthrough. It is easy to talk about MDash; MDash; Ukrainian economy is still a distance from the EU standards.Frozen Conflict also hinders it to become a member of NATO.More importantly, traditional European powers such as Germany and France are unwilling to further evil with Russia, and they have reservations about the European Union and NATO in Ukraine.At that time, Boroshenko came to play, why wasn't it a pro -European anti -Russian trend of the independent square revolution (especially young people)?Today, I also lost the defeat today.
Some experts expect Moscow to extend olive branches to Zelleiski, and the hostile relationship between the two sides may be eased in the short term.However, 3 days before the decision, Moscow announced the implementation of energy ban on Ukraine without warning. The start date is the two days before the new president of Ukraine.?In fact, under the constraint of domestic pro -Western public opinion, Ukraine will reconnect the intimate relationship with Russia in the past, is it difficult to speak optimistically?
Author Wang Jiahao is an assistant to the Department of Social Sciences of the Hong Kong Education University. Luo Jinyi is an associate professor at the Department of Social Sciences of Hong Kong Education University
