Horizontal World
The author recently visited the United States and conducted a wide range of exchanges with scholars in the United States International Strategy Research and Chinese Studies.Everyone generally has strong concerns about the future of Sino -US relations. However, it is interesting that it seems that the U.S. intellectual elites' concerns about the uncertainty of domestic politics in the United States are not less than Sino -US relations.
The author believes that the competition between China and the United States in the field of trade, high -tech, and geopolitics does face unprecedented challenges. However, it must also be realized that these are also reflected in the uncertainty caused by strategic uneasiness in the reorganization of the domestic political order in the United States.Essence
The first is the division of the two major parties in the United States.During the author's visit to the United States, the former President Bush's wife, President Bush's mother Babara Bush's lifetime interview and publishing was published, which caused some shocks in the United States.The book was written on the last six months of the last six months of Barbara Bush's life, and was written on the basis of authorizing reading.As a woman who has built two Republican Presidents, she has always been considered a supporter of the Republican hardcore.
However, in February 2018 after Trump's ruling, she was asked if she was still a Republican, and she answered that she was not. This was a true portrayal of the Republican division in itself.The situation of the Democratic Party is almost the same. Although the US Presidential Election Democratic Vice President Biden was the most popular in 2020, the big government, free university, and mass medical treatment proposed by another candidate Sanders have not been considered the mainstreamThe claim is becoming the mainstream.
According to reports, there are 73 million younger generations of younger generations from 18 to 29 years old, and more than half may be cast to the Democratic Party, but they support Sanders' big government claims and re -distribution of wealth.Both Trump and Sanders's populist claims have a mass foundation. Trump's support layers are mainly strong in the central and western regions.
The Democratic Party focused on Russia's try to impeach Trump's unsuccessful way, and the political polarization of the two parties further intensified.
During the author's visit to the United States, another thing was in the report issued by the US Minister of Justice on March 24. In the 2016 Presidential Election, Trump and Russia were not identified as a conclusion that Trump and Russia made insufficient evidence of Trump's interference investigation.The Democratic Party demands all the reports that may conduct further investigations in Parliament, but the report has determined that Russia interfere with the US presidential election.The focus of investigation by the Mueller Special Prosecutor in May 2017 was the presidential crime, which became the biggest uncertainties for the US domestic affairs bureau after almost Trump's election.
The Director -General of the Trump camp and the original lawyer were sued at the same time as the investigation, and confessed to the behavior of the president at the time, which has always had an impact on Trump's image.However, this result made the Democratic Party trying to declare failure through systemic demonization Trump to overthrow the Republican party.This also means that the Democratic Party must change its strategy in the future and change the dynasty through policy competition.However, this process will also mean that there may be political claims of both parties, and the danger of further polarization will be further polarized with the election campaign.
Not only for China
Diplomacy is the derivation of internal affairs. At present, the huge uncertainty of Sino -US relations has international structures and strength comparison. At the same time, it is also a counter -photo of the above -mentioned US domestic political uncertainty.The deepening of US politics and social division means reorganization of internal order.In this process, there will be no small fluctuations in foreign relations, and the phenomenon of diplomacy in this internal affairs is not completely targeted at China.
The author believes that the nervousness of Sino -US relations must be comprehensive, balanced, and calmly. On the one hand, challenges and even danger are indeed increasing, and this new normal may continue to be continued for a long time, but at the same timeThe one -side adjustment side is not over -reaction to some words and deeds in the United States. This is not to show weakness to the United States, but strategic determination.Many analysis and research now believe that the United States has increased its strategic pressure on China after Trump's administration. It seems to suppress China everywhere, and even think that the strategic focus of the United States has shifted to China eastward.But in fact, the Trump administration's words and deeds may not be in line with routine or even radical, but its cognitive foundation has a long history.
First of all, the United States has taken root during Obama's ruling, and Trump just shows more directly in the operation.In terms of alliance relations, Gates, who served as Minister of Defense during the Obama administration, would bluntly criticize NATO member states every year when he participated in the NATO Summit. He did not pay the defense cost that he should bear.Trump continues the above cognitive basis, which is also an important reason for the current discord of US -Europe relations.
In the field of international military control, although Obama proposed the concept of a nuclear -free world to win the Nobel Peace Prize, US -Russian relations were nervous because of the Crimean issue, and domestic politics in the United States believed that Russia did not seriously implement their commitments in the military control field, resulting in new new commitments, leading to new new commitments, leading to new new committees, leading to new new committees, leading to new in the military control field, leading to newThe strategic nuclear weapon reduction treaty negotiations have stagnated.Trump also continued the above understanding and recently decided to withdraw from the medium -range missile treaty (INF).
In the economic field, the United States believes that it has provided the largest open market for the world economy, but other major economies have not opened their markets in equal place, which leads to the asymmetry of the market's entry, which will cause trade deficit, government subsidies, and technological losswait.Similarly, this has performed obviously after Obama's administration. In this regard, China has been under great pressure, but it is not the only object.Trump also imposed punitive tariffs on Japanese steel and other products, and was very dissatisfied with the EU's subsidies in Airbus.
Second, the United States has also appeared in the Obama period.The United States believes that in the past spending too much financial resources and resources in the Middle East, Obama made it clear that the United States would no longer be a world police officer, but from international affairs, first starting from the Middle East.A material foundation that supports the United States from getting off from the Middle East is the great changes in the energy structure of the United States.During Obama's administration, the world's first oil production in the United States in 45 years in 2018, exports will exceed Saudi Arabia in the next five years to become the number one in the world.This will cause pro -Israeli and impact on Iranian sanctions, which will have an impact on Saudi Arabia relying on oil and Russia.
According to a report released by the National Energy Information Bureau on March 26, the output of crude oil in 2018 increased by 17%in 17 years, and Nissan crude oil was 10.95 million barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia.Shale gas technology revolution.In the future, Nissan rock oil predictions will reach 14 million barrels.
Two paradox tendencies exist at the same time
Because of this, the Trump administration seems to have become very naughty in the Middle East policy. First, it was announced that the Iranian nuclear issue framework agreement that had not been able to achieve was announced, and then relocated to the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.The Gelan heights of the Syrian territory recognized by the US government have attributed the sovereignty of Israel. These are the peace processes that shake the Middle East from the foundation of international law and international consensus.If the strategic interests of oil in the United States in the Middle East and other regions in the past can make it more seriously thinking about peace issues, this motivation is now significantly declined.
Faced with the uncertainties presented by the United States, the response of the international community is to leave the United States to a certain extent, but on the other hand, they hope to tie the United States with two paradox tendencies at the same time.
On the surface, the European Union is close to the United States' tough policies to China, and it is also expressed concerns that the US investment in the United States may bring national security hazards.These all show that Europe to maintain Atlantic relations and the needs of the United States.However, on the other hand, Europe needs China in many places, such as Iran, trade, climate change, etc. in many places abandoned by the United States.
In the face of the United States demanded that it exclude Chinese companies such as Huawei to participate in 5G projects, the European Union expressed an agreement to agree that the United States believes that national security is important.But on the other hand, various countries have judged by themselves, showing that there is some differences with the United States.The United States threatens if Chinese technology is adopted, in the futureIntelligence cooperation should be re -considered, but Germany believes that it cannot be eliminated by specific enterprises, and Portugal and Italy are positive.
In the Middle East, whether it is an American allies or an enemy, although it still puts first place in US diplomacy, it is already actively expanding new strategic space.Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has recently visited China, and the Speaker of Iran also visited China in February. These all show that the Middle East has passed signals to the United States. Don't take it for granted, I have other options.Similarly in Asia, Japan actively improves relations with China on the one hand, reflects a certain degree of departure to the United States, and on the other hand, the cross -Pacific partnership agreement (TPP) negotiations are also to prepare for the United States to return to multilateralism in the future.
Some people think of the current Sino -US relations as a new cold war, and the author thinks it is too simple.The United States requires fundamental changes, and many requirements are directly involved in China's domestic governance structure. China does need to further reform and open, but many things must be slowly.At the same time, the United States also needs to carry out structural reforms. It is impossible for only China or other countries to reform, and the United States has remained motionless, so that the reorganization of international order cannot be carried out smoothly.
In fact, the negotiations on bilateral investment treaties held during Obama during the governance of Obama were an important step for Sino -US joint evolution to promote reform and adjustment. However, this process was unfortunately interrupted after Trump's administration.For China, in the face of a possible re -election, while paying attention to negotiation with the United States, it is necessary to adjust the US center thinking appropriately to leave the United States and strengthen the relationship with the world outside the United States.Rebeling the international order.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan
Region of Beijing Foreign Language University, China
Senior researcher with Global Governance Higher Research Institute
The United States has taken root during Obama's governance, and Trump just shows more directly in the operation.In the alliance relations, when the Obama administration served as the Minister of Defense, Gates, when he participated in the NATO Summit every year, he bluntly criticized NATO member states that he did not pay the defense costs that he should bear, and it was also very small in Japan, the Asian allies.Trump continues the above cognitive basis, which is also an important reason for the current discord of US -Europe relations.
