Shen Jianguang: In the future, China's economic stability will be supported, the economic inflection point has emerged, and it is not necessary to increase stimuli. In view of the outstanding structural and institutional issues, the loose policy has ended.
Last week, China's economic data over the first quarter, and the growth rate of GDP reached 6.4%, which was the same as the fourth quarter of last year, which reversed pessimistic expectations of economic downturn.At the same time, on April 19, the Politburo meeting's statement on economic operation trends and policies had transformed significantly.Given that the Politburo Conference will no longer mention six stability, emphasizing the except cycle factor that drags the growth of growth,
It is more structural and institutional factors. Combined with resolutely fighting the three major attacks and insisting on structural deleveraging, the Politburo Conference conveyed the change of the policy focus, and the loose policy has ended.Of course, there are many different views in the market so far. There are in favor, and it is not uncommon for questioning.Does the inflection point of China's economy and policy appear?
March's inflection point appeared first
In the context of macro -cycle policy and Sino -US trade risk slow release, Chinese economic data ushered in a strong rebound in March.Reflected in:
First, consumption performance is good and is the main driving force for economic growth.The total retail sales of social consumer goods in March increased by 8.7%year -on -year, a new growth rate since September 2018, and optional consumption has also increased significantly.Consumption recovery is closely linked to the initial income from the initial tax and the growth rate of residents' income.According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, residents' income increased by 8.7%year -on -year in the first quarter, and the actual increase of 6.8%, which was 0.2 percentage points accelerated from the same period last year. In March of this year, personal tax revenue decreased by 48.4%year -on -year, reflecting the result of low tax adjustment.
Second, industrial production data is strong.In March, industrial added value increased by 8.5%year -on -year, a new high of more than four and a half years.Of course, the sharp rebound of industrial growth is related to the expectations of the adjustment of the value -added tax rate, that is, the April VAT is reduced, and many manufacturers have increased the motivation of stock preparation, accelerating production, and obtaining higher deductions in advance.However, in terms of data such as excavators production and sales, PMI, and blast furnaces, industrial stability can be supported.For example, as a barometer of the active operation of engineering, the current excavator sales have reversed the downward trend of last year, and the year -on -year growth rate of production rose rapidly to 52.3%in March.
In addition, the year -on -year growth rate of cement and crude steel production has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Among them, the year -on -year growth rate of cement was 22.2%year -on -year, a new high in two years.
Third, real estate investment continues to be strong, and infrastructure investment has stabilized.In the first quarter, fixed asset investment increased by 6.3%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.Among them, infrastructure investment rebounded slightly, which was related to the acceleration of the early infrastructure approval and the amount of local debt quota was issued in advance.In addition, the growth rate of real estate investment has maintained a high level of 11.8%, or after the real estate enterprise has been available for land and start the pre -sale certificate and the sales repayment last year, the subsequent construction will be gradually carried out, or it will promote Jian'an investment to drive real estate investmentBack.At the same time, real estate sales data also stabilized.
Fourth, exports are significantly better than expected.The performance of export data in March was extremely bright, with a year -on -year growth rate of 14.2%in the US dollar.From the perspective of division, in March, China's exports to major trading partners have improved significantly. The exports to the United States, Europe, and Japan increased by 3.7%, 23.7%, and 9.6%year-on-year.%, -9.5%.
Different from domestic demand generally, the import data in March is not good, a year -on -year decrease of 7.6%. In my opinion, the short -term factors may lead to the deviation of imported data in March: First, the Sino -US trade agreement may be achieved quickly, and enterprises may be reached quickly.Actively delayed imports; second, the adjustment of import value -added tax rates on April 1 can reduce the operating cost of imported middlemen, so it may push the import plan back.
Of course, the current manufacturing investment is still weak, and it is different from the strong trend of industrial production.In the author's opinion, manufacturing investment depends on the expectations of longer economic growth. Enterprises expect long -term good to expand production capacity and update equipment.Therefore, the current growth rate of investment in manufacturing may mean that enterprises have not improved significantly in future demand expectations, or it is still not related to the decline in profitability of industrial enterprises, and entrepreneurs are still not related to long -term economic growth.In my opinion, with the implementation of the April VAT and the implementation of social security reductions in May, active finances are expected to help improve corporate profits and stabilize economy.
Politburo meeting announced the approaching policy of policy
Based on the active changes in economic fundamentals, at the Politburo meeting on April 19, the decision -making level has changed significantly for the policy statement.For example, no longer emphasize six stability, but instead thinks that the except cyclical factors that drag the growth are more structural and institutional factors, and at the same time make three major attacks, adhere to the structural deleveraging, stable monetary policy policyIn terms of policy statements such as moderation and re -residential housing, re -residential housing, in the author's opinion, the changes in the above word means that the policy focuses on the transfer of policies, and the loose policy may end.In my opinion, the change of decision -making layer may be considered as follows:
First of all, the effect of the previous counter -cyclical policy has achieved significant results.In the first quarter, economic data showed that the preliminary policy support has actually reversed the rapid decline in economic decline. As mentioned above, most of the economic data in March mostly rebounded, achieving the phased role of macro policies, and the need for further relaxation.Reduction.
Secondly, the requirements for preventing financial risks have improved, and the policy portfolio has changed.In terms of policies, the Politburo meeting mentioned that continuing to implement positive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies, but active fiscal policies must take efficiency and stable monetary policy.The author's opinion may mean that tax cuts and fees will still be advanced in the future, but monetary policy may face marginal tightening.
It can be seen that in the first quarter of this year, social financing was 8.18 trillion yuan and RMB loans increased by 5.81 trillion, all of which hit a record high in a single quarter.The looseness of the funding surface caused the worry of excessive water release. This is not only reflected in the political bureau's meeting that emphasizes that the monetary policy is tight and moderate, but at the regular meeting of the central bank's monetary policy in the first quarter of the day, it has re -controlled the total gate of the currency supply, and it is not big.Water drilling, conveying signals for policy adjustments.
At the same time, combined with the upsurge of short -term inflation pressure, concerns about asset bubbles, and debt concerns increased. In April, monetary policy operations have been adjusted, that is, more public market operations can be used to relieve short -term liquidity pressure, not referenced standards.2. Comprehensive and loose signals such as interest rate cuts.
Then, avoid repeating the same thing as the real estate bubble.The timely adjustment of the current policy portfolio is also considered to prevent re -real estate roads.With the decline in the interest rate of mortgage loans in the early stage and the relaxation of the administrative regulation of different cities, real estate sales data in March generally turn well, and optimism of real estate has risen, but this is exactly what the decision -making layer is unwilling to see.
The Politburo meeting once again deployed the real estate market again, emphasizing that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning of the house for living, not for speculation, and implement the long -term regulation mechanism of one city and one strategy, the city's policy, and the main responsibility of the city government.Essence
It shows that under the background of the downward pressure on the economy, the decision -making layer will still prevent the accumulation of real estate bubbles in a very important position.
In addition, the meeting once again mentioned the long -term real estate mechanism. In my opinion, in the context of great efforts to reduce taxes and fees this year, it means that the real estate tax is expected to accelerate the launch.It is an important part of promoting the reform of fiscal and taxation and long -term mechanisms. In the context of large -scale tax cuts, it will not increase the question of increased overall tax burden, and the point of implementation is more appropriate.
Finally, institutional reforms were given priority.At the Politburo meeting, the political issue and institutional issues were more important. At the fourth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee on April 22, ... the General Secretary also emphasized the deepening of supply -side structural reforms and make good use of high levels of high levels.Open up to deepen the direction of structural reforms such as reform.This shows that when facing the downward pressure on the economy, it is not just relying on the macro -cyclical policy alone. On the contrary, in the context of short -term pressure slow release, it will rely on further reform and opening up to release dividends in the future.
In terms of specific measures, the Politburo meeting mentionedTo promote the healthy development of the capital market with key system innovation, the science and technology board must truly implement the securities issuance registration system with information disclosure as the core, emphasizing that it is necessary to promote deep -level reforms at high levels, expand the foreign market access, and implement national treatment.The signal of accelerated openness was further released.Earlier, the Development and Reform Commission issued a key task of new urbanization construction in 2019. From the perspective of content, future household registration reform, fiscal and tax reform, land reform, and public service equalization will accelerate.
In summary, the author believes that the economic data in the first quarter is significantly improved, which is related to the favorable policy and the reduction of external risks.With the April value -added tax reduction, social security reduction in May has entered a period of centralized efforts, and the final reaching of the Sino -US trade agreement, it is expected that the Chinese economy will be further supported in the future, and the economic inflection point has emerged.Based on this, it is not necessary to further increase policy stimulus. On the contrary, in view of the outstanding structural and institutional issues, the loose policy has ended, and the future policy focus will pay more attention to deepening reforms and expanding opening up.
These long -term system construction will undoubtedly help improve the long -term profitability of enterprises, continue to reverse the long -term expectations of enterprises, and help the sustainable growth of China's economy.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
