Author: Yu Huiru
Two years ago, I informed that in the Shenzhen area after ten years, it will surpass the Silicon Valley of the United States.Although China's economy is not good at present, I still think that this inference does not need to be changed in eight years.On April 20, at the Future Summit Forum of the Greater Bay Area and Shenzhen, Zhang Wuchang, an internationally renowned economist, mentioned in a speech.
On the same day, Zhang Wu often, known as the analysis of the Chinese economic system, published it in Cantonese, which is a phenomenon entitled Shenzhen?Speech.In the nearly one -hour speech, he reviewed the development of Shenzhen in the past forty years of reform and opening up, Shenzhen's future development, important roles played by Dongguan in Shenzhen's development, zero tariffs and other related issues.
At the end of the speech, Zhang Wuchang asked himself and answered himself: Is Shenzhen a phenomenon?should be.If Qianhai can successfully launch the RMB internationally, no matter which method is used, it must be.
Shenzhen will become the economic center of the entire earth
In the nearly one -hour speech, Zhang Wuchang's white -haired Zhang Wuchang did not hide his confidence in Shenzhen's future development: Shenzhen will become the economic center of the entire earth.
In the speech, Zhang Wuchang recalled a meeting with some old colleagues and students in the United States two years ago on his doctoral dissertation theory on the theoretical of his doctoral dissertation.During the period, he led his friends to take a walk by the sea and predicting the future of Shenzhen: ten years later, Shenzhen will surpass Silicon Valley in the United States.
I said at the time: Remember what I said, the land standing at this moment is that this is not bad, and one day will become the economic center of the entire earth.Is it exaggerated?of course.Will it be light?This kind of inferred that the elderly are rarely wrong.Thirty years ago, I inferred that Shanghai's economy would surpass Hong Kong; today I infer that Shenzhen will surpass Shanghai.Difficulty, but fake time, I should be right.
Zhang Wuchang said that it is not difficult to make this inference.The center of international economic development has always relying on a bay area.Of course, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao are also a bay area, but deep characters are not within it.There is no doubt that Shenzhen, which can not be hit in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, will be the leader of this Bay Area.The economy of Shenzhen, which is still developing today, has not only surpassed Hong Kong, but also surpassed the entire Taiwan.
The existence of Dongguan is decisive to Shenzhen
Zhang Wuchang believes that an important reason for Shenzhen's rapid development is its geographical advantage.Another important factor is the Dongguan next door.
Zhang Wuchang said that Dongguan is not an ordinary industrial zone. Unlike Wenzhou specializes in small commodities, unlike the famous brand of Suzhou Industrial Park, unlike Yangjiang, it is specialized in one or two industries.Dongguan (to be counted as Huizhou next door to Shenzhen) can be manufactured by countless products, and cities that are good, fast, and cheap.
I know a lot of friends who set up factories in Dongguan. A very familiar toy, a mold -making, a tableware, and one exhibited.They did hard, but I knew from them that in Dongguan, the factories between the factory and the factory, the convenience between the factory and the cottage was that I saw it in my life.When it comes to the convenience of the industry's diversification and the convenience of work, Dongguan should have no doubts on the earth.Zhang Wuchang said.
Zhang Wuchang said that he must infer the reason why Shenzhen will surpass Silicon Valley, mainly because Silicon Valley does not have an industrial area like Dongguan level.Not only not today, there will never be.Today, the minimum packets of professional employees in a factory in Dongguan are about one -third of the unsuccessful boarding and accommodation of the west coast of the United States.; mdash; more than double.This is a matter of geography.
Zero tariffs to increase the procedures is zero
On the issue involving tariffs, Zhang Wuchang suggested starting from the United Kingdom. He believes that zero tariffs between China and Britain are good for Britain.
Britain has always been nearly zero tariffs, and China and Britain have zero tariffs. Of course, Britain will laugh with a happy laugh, not to mention the Brexit dilemma they currently encounter. China and Britain implementing zero tariffs will solve all the problems of this dilemma. This is a charcoal in the snow.EssenceNot only this, if Beijing said to the advanced state of Europe that everyone has zero tariffs together, and they also ask them to take a British zero tariff, they will accept it.Zhang Wu often thinks.
Zhang Wuchang emphasized that zero tariffs imported in China are zero.Import and export procedures should learn from Hong Kong and simplify as much as possible.
China's zero tariffs will shock the world.Although China is not a rich country, the market is bizarre.If we do not count on high -tech products with high value, just look at daily necessities, the Chinese market accounts for about half of the earth.Of course, there is such an advantage.Zhang Wuchang mentioned.
Zhang Wuchang recognizes that if China and Western advanced state have proposed zero tariffs on each other, the problem of trade friction between China and the United States will be easily solved.Because the United States does not have brand -name consumer products like French perfume or Rolex watch.They have aircraft, agricultural products, advanced medical drugs, and college education much better than China.Isn't it all happy for the United States to make money by selling knowledge?
Lift the existence tube is the future of Qianhai
When talking about the future development of Qianhai, Zhang Wuchang said: The establishment of Qianhai is to engage in an international financial center to launch the RMB to the international.It is not so easy to launch the RMB internationally, because any currency must replace the US dollar internationally against the United States.
Zhang Wuchang believes that the launch of the RMB will definitely replace the US dollar to some extent.In this way, there will be conflicts of interest between China and the United States.You sell peanuts in the market, and I am also selling peanuts in the same market. How can everyone not conflict?
If you want to launch the RMB internationally, it is necessary to relieve all foreign exchange control.We must also note that there is no foreign exchange reserve in the United States because the US dollar accepts the US dollar, and they do not need foreign exchange reserves.I saw the information not long ago that the international US dollar reserves were about 62 %, and RMB was only about two %.Such a large separation is not good for China's foreign trade development.Zhang Wuchang said that as early as 1988, Friedman mentioned that China wanted to dismiss all foreign exchange controls and let the renminbi introduce international views.
Zhang Wuchang analyzed the economic logic of the RMB to introduce RMB: the RMB to be launched internationally, and it is necessary to fully relieve foreign exchange control. In the early stage of the termination of exchange management, the central bank's foreign exchange reserves would be lost; foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will rise to rise.; A method for adjusting the import and export of the RMB and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves is to adjust the exchange rate of RMB foreign currency.
Because of the above reasons, the renminbi is far from the general acceptance of the dollar, so the RMB will be the next anchor first.I thought about the important topic of the anchor under the RMB for many years, and finally came up with the method of using the price index of a basket of items as the anchor.Zhang Wuchang said.
