Society: Taiwan may fall into economic recession earlier than the world

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Society

Since the middle of last year, a number of economic indicators in Taiwan have obviously deteriorated, reflecting the fact that the weak expansion momentum and the signal that the release of the prosperity will continue to cool down, prompting the general plan to gradually reduce the economic growth forecast of 2019 to 2.27%, which is the most after 2016.Difference.In January this year, the location of the Taiwan economic test clock map announced by the German research institution IFO has fallen into the third quadrant that represents the decline of the prosperity for the second consecutive quarter.Entering the recession, the economic fragility is significantly greater than that of most countries.

It is true that the global rising section of the global dynamic cycle has led to slowing the growth of global trade volume, which will naturally affect the Taiwan economy that depends on export kinetic energy.But does the question stop there?of course not.

The three major growth engines exporting, consumption and investment are suffering from structural problems.The substantial salary growth alone is significantly lower than the labor productivity, which exacerbates the uneven distribution of Taiwan's income and the degree of social M, which can make civilian consumer momentum and weakness.The structural sinking of low -end and long -term outsourcing production to make manufacturers compete for investment abroad, which is enough to make the growth rate of private investment in low falling.As for the challenges and threats facing exports, Taiwan can hardly breathe.

As we all know, the United States and mainland China are the important trade between Taiwan and China, and because manufacturers have adopted the business model of Taiwan receiving orders and overseas production (the main bases in China and Hong Kong) for many years, there is a close triangle trade relationship in the United States and China.The problem is that in recent years, the United States has promoted the small results of manufacturing backflow, and the manufacturing industry in mainland China has been carried out vertically. The construction of the value chain has become increasingly complete., All let the Taiwan economic abdomen that depends on the country's economic abdomen to receive the enemy.Now, coupled with the start of the US -China trade war, it is difficult for Taiwan to be involved in the muddy mud that is struggling to fight.After the trade war started, the economic growth of Guangdong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, which has a high degree of trade dependence, has a significant decline in economic growth, which is empirical.

Some people may say that how much the government's southern direction policy should alleviate the harm of the US -China trade war.Indeed, in recent years, wages in mainland China have risen, environmental protection requirements have been improved, and stronger political pressure on Taiwan, as well as high tariffs between the United States and China, have greatly affected the operation of the company, which has made mainland Taiwanese businessmen tired.It is planned to re -adjust the global layout.As the second largest export market in Taiwan, with more than 5%of economic growth, low laborers, the number of trade agreements signed, the number of trade agreements is large, and the geographical location is close to Taiwan.

Unfortunately, strengthening the south -facing trade cannot be effective in the short term, and ASEAN is also quite dependent on the United States and China in trade that is difficult to escape the trade war.At the same time, the gap between the economic development and business conditions of the ASEAN countries is very large, and each has its own structural problems that need to be solved. For example, there are many countries with a large population.There are challenges such as aging population and gap between labor productivity, which makes the risk of manufacturers invest.

What's more, even if the current US -China trade war ceased fire and actively negotiated, Taiwan was breathing a little.However, the reason why US President Trump completely ignored the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute resolution mechanism and made a big deal of trade war.Modify his self -considers of self -interesting economic and trade rules, until the two parties to the transaction are fair.

After Trump's re -interpretation of fairness, the trend will subvert the existing global economic and trade order.If the time order is increasingly approaching the 2020 U.S. presidential election, whether Trump will once again use the US -China trade issues to create the atmosphere of voters and enemies, with a view to winning the risk of re -election, which means that the US -China trade dispute is difficult to use the current negotiation agreement between the two parties.Really solve the alarm that makes the Taiwan economy unable to terminate the US -China trade war.

To put it, since the first quarter of 2012, Taiwan's economic growth rate has been circling in low -grade. It has not been in the past in the past, and there are obvious peaks.The power of hair (GDP) is greater.However, the government is only busy boosting the short -term economy, leading to an intensified economic vulnerability in Taiwan today. It is a serious lack of the ability to enter the recession and the impact of foreign impact. It is an inevitable result.