Author: Chen Jianzhong
Although optimism is a positive attitude, if it becomes a projection based on the deviation of self -centered, refuses to accept objective adverse reality, and ignores the upcoming storm. Such deliberate blind optimism and risk aversion is far more terrible than ignorance.Unfortunately, the current Cai government is almost completely based on blind optimism whether it is operating the US -Taiwan relations or in response to the Taiwan Strait crisis.In order to strive for re -election, Tsai Ing -wen took a deliberate reason to transform US -Taiwan relations and cross -strait relations into campaign leverage, ignoring immediately hurting itself and Taiwan.
The pro -green media and polls have been continuously released polls for a long time, hoping to persuade the public with data: the CCP dare not commit force to commit to Taiwan because the United States will inevitably send troops to intervene.Last year, Xu Sijian, the Second Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced a poll that pointed out that if a war occurred on both sides of the strait, 7 major people were willing to fight for Taiwan.About 23%of Taiwanese people are willing to resist.The poll of the University of Duke also shows that if Taiwan announced independence, it will cause mainland China to attack Taiwan, in favor of less than 30 % of the independent.
At a seminar held by the Taipei Forum a few days ago, Brett Benson, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Van Derby University, warned that Taiwanese voters not only trusted U.S. military commitments too much, but also had blind optimism that may win in the Taiwan Strait War.Optimism may increase the possibility of cross -strait warfare.Wu Yushan, an academician of the Central Research Institute, was worried about the lack of elasticity in Taiwan's foreign relations. Not only did they not have risks, but even often showed the opposite diplomatic strategy as the neighboring countries, making Taiwan a group of departure from East Asia.Former Secretary -General of the National Security Council, Su Qi speculated that before the 2020 election, the situation in the Taiwan Strait would be particularly dangerous because the hostile cognition on both sides of the strait became more and more stiff and there were no signs of softening.
Danger comes from Xiaoying's excessive optimism of reality, but the more self -feelings, the greater the frustration of the external pressure and the deeper anxiety, it will take the unwise move that worsen the situation.In the face of the challenges of re -election, Tsai Ing -wen judged from the party in the early before, to thinking that Lai Qingde could be persuaded to accept Cai Lai Bing, but now he has transformed into the embarrassment of the primary election relying on the advantage of power.In the face of the continuous pressure on the mainland's diplomacy and security, Xiaoying can replace the status quo from self -confidence to replace the 1992 consensus, the US Congress Friendship Act, and the Trump administration's umbrella can be covered.American security commitment.However, the US ship has not rely on Taiwan and senior officials. Even the most confident procurement for U.S. military procurement has also reported that Trump will be put on hold for the smooth trade negotiations for the United States and China.
In the face of dark green pressure, Tsai Ing -wen chose to touch the crisis of the Taiwan Strait.Xiaoying's excessive optimism with the United States and Taiwan, seriously distorting real cognition of reality, and heavy dependence on anti -China operations, the risk of out of control of the Taiwan Strait has soared.
(The author is senior media person)
