Author: Chen Guanan
The 2020 presidential election can be said to be the most strange election since the democratization of Taiwan. So far, the players have not yet been determined, and there are also variables that Ke Wenzhe will run.What's more interesting is that who will go out between blue and green and look at the candidates of the other two parties.It can be said that it is a spy and spy, and the master who launch the whole body has been tricked.
As far as the Green Camp is concerned, although the overlord clauses in the party's rules may be used to replace the preliminary nominee, or the preliminary election will be suspended at the Central Executive Council next worship.However, because the party chairman Zhuo Rongtai has threatened to happen during his tenure; and Lai Qingde stated on his Facebook that he would definitely complete the primaries.Therefore, if the British forces are still trying to use technical rules, even if they can be a black box for a while, they may cause the consequences of Tsai Ing -wen's avalanche.Therefore, the anti -dependence force will only coordinate the option of Cai Lai.
In response, the opposition camp also came out of Chen Jianren and Su Jiaquan to abandon the operation of re -elected vice president and legislator, respectively.Chen abandoned the space for the vice president, but for Lai, it has nothing to do with itching.So the really important thing is Su's chess.Because Su abandoned as the leader of parliament, he can first use this to exchange for the long -term support of Ke Jianming, who has long been dean; secondly, he can also sell the general call of the party and group with vacancies to make the anti -dependent power more consolidated.In the end, Cai Su is warning that Lai Ruo insisted on running, and in the end, he might be empty.However, from the personality of Lai and the signs of the primary election procedure, Cai Laibiao may be just the only floating wood in the Wangyang.
The key to the end of the election is its poll.Although the anti -Lai camp has repeatedly said that the gap between Cai Lai is not large, from the perspective of the polls of the Meilimao Electronics News, this gap is the key to the winning election of the three -legged election.
Ironically, Tsai Ing -wen, who advocated the maintenance of the status quo in the past, is almost the same as Lai's support from Lai Green recently.There are a lot of Yu Cai.It is such an advantage that Lai is not as good as Cai before facing Lan Bai's strong enemy.
Due to the structure of voters, Lai Qingde and South Korea ’s Yu, who are far from ideological spectrums, have become community of interests.Once Han does not qualify, Ke P will be unique, which will attack Lai's election legitimacy; on the other hand, if you do not live, the sense of crisis in the blue camp will be reduced, and Zhu Lilun also has the ability to resist Cai alone., Therefore, the legitimacy that damages the Korean election.From this point of view, it was not surprising that Lai Hanhui arched each other.
In terms of general land, Cai Lai may not have a lot of mission, because Lai's back has the mission of resisting South Korea; if Lai is qualified, Han will be more likely to be arched out of the blue camp's crisis.As for the most strategic and elastic Ke, although the most unwilling scene is to see the blue and green sent greatness, it is also Ke's existence that makes this election more variable.
Even if Han Lai comes out, Ke P, who has continued to decline in the momentum, and no longer the rescue of the Universiade, 2020 will be the moment when it is closest to the president.After all, there are 8 to 12 seats, as well as 600 million presidential and 4 -year party subsidy funds in total, it will become an important political capital to challenge 2024.From this point of view, Ke's election is imperative and will affect the layout of blue and green.
(The author is assistant researcher at the National Policy Foundation)
