Author: Huang Jiezheng
From Lee Teng -hui to Tsai Ing -wen's last 4th Taiwan presidential term, cross -strait relations have begun to start with expectations and goodwill, and then turn to the inflection point of disappointment and opposition.Strictly speaking, the real inflection point of cross -strait relations occurs at the last (2nd) term of the three presidents, while the turning point of the cross -strait relations under President Tsai has arrived in advance.
Cross -strait relations are intricate and complicated. For example, international power changes to bureaus, regional situation changes, cross -strait exchanges hot and cold, respectively internal political calculations, and even the beliefs and personality of the leaders of both parties have formed different levels and influence on the ups and downs of cross -strait relations.EssenceThe analysis of the situation of the Taiwan Strait and the goodness of cross -strait relations can be complicated to comprehensively study, and it can also be blamed for a special position. Naturally, it can also be observed from the perspective of the past.
President Lee Teng -hui succeeds because of the death of Mr. Jingguo. He ended up the hostile status from both sides of the strait, and China will be unified and established in the new Central Plains.At the end of the term of 12 years, the establishment of the National Security Council instructed the establishment of a group of the State status of the Republic of China's sovereignty.
President Chen Shui -bian, who has created the first party rotation, has not started with four different. Although he has talked about the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and one country, it has signed a peaceful and stable interactive architecture agreement from the cross -strait coast of the MAC to Chen Shui -bianBefore re -election, the mainland issued a May 17th statement of the Communist Party of the Communist Party of China and the framework of peaceful development of cross -strait relations.However, as the mainland visited the country through anti -split national law and the Kuomintang, the Civil Democratic Party, and the new party chairman, the normalization of cross -strait relations of Chen Shui -bian became hopeless, and at the end of the term of office, the referendum that was opposed by the United States and China was selected.
President Ma Ying -jeou's unification or uniqueness, diplomatic offer, and 1992 consensus, one of the one -China table, enabled the cross -strait to restart the negotiation channels of negotiations, signed more than 20 agreements, and achieved relatively harmonious cross -strait relations in the past 30 years.However, the mainland created the requirements for peeling onion -style on the cross -strait leaders' meeting. He talked with President Ma in the National Day in 2014. It publicly supports Hong Kong's occupation of the Democratic Movement of the Democratic Democratic Movement of the Chief Executive. It cannot be said to have nothing to do.
As for the Singapore Malaysia Council at the end of 2015, on the one hand, the status of the leaders of the two sides in the history of cross -strait relations in the history of cross -strait relations was created.After that, the mainland's relations with cross -strait relations have changed unilaterally and one -sided actions, replacing the trend of negotiating negotiation agreements between the two parties.
The current President Tsai Ing -wen and the policies of the mainland of the mainland for more than 20 years. Before the election, it was called to maintain the status quo.It can stabilize the stagnation relationship between the two sides without being evil.However, due to the lack of mutual trust on both sides of the strait, the US -China strategy confrontation gradually became, and the voices of the United States were raised. The political considerations of the three parties in the United States, China, and Taiwan were staggered.
In the past three years, the Cai government has lost five diplomatic relations in the past three years, and Beijing's interpretation of the interpretation of the 1992 consensus is elastic.In the past, how to evolve in the next few years, suspense is big.
Since the nine -in -one local elections last year, after the Kuomintang won major gains, the atmosphere of the Presidential and legislators elections in 2020 has come.The problem of localities will be released in less than next year's election, and the debate may continue.
On July 9, 1999, President Li Denghui accepted an exclusive interview with the Voice of Germany and described cross -strait relations as a special state and state relations. It has happened to date for 20 years.At that time, the Kuomintang had been in power for a long time, the political parties never rotated, the national unified program was not abolished, and the comparison of cross -strait strength was still not huge. It still caused almost interruption of cross -strait pipelines, and the tension of solidification of the Taiwan Strait was solidified.
Today, mainland China strives to approach the center of the world stage. The PLA Sea, Air Force Forces Longhai Long Airlines training is normalized, and there are major political agenda for the establishment of the country 70, comprehensively building a well -off society, a party 100, and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.Essence
This year's cross -strait relations have entered 70 years, from war killing, zero -sum of diplomatic, to economic links, negotiations between the two sessions, to the situation of communication and tense confrontation.How to break away from the continuous turning point on both sides of the strait is actually a major event when the domestic ornamental is traded.
(The author is an associate professor at the Institute of Strategy at Tamkang University in Taiwan)
