Ellissen: In history, many countries are in war due to the competition of Schina -style. The United States and China should use strategic imagination in avoiding falling into this trap.
On March 22, 2019, the Global Think Tank (CCG) held the 2019 Harvard China Alumni Public Policy Forum and CCG Roundtable Seminar at the Beijing Headquarters.Graham Allison, the founder of Harvard University's Kennedy Government College and the proposal of Xunxidde trap;The elites of the political and business community have deeply analyzed the global trade situation and Sino -US relations, and discussed the development of global economic and trade policies and foreign relations.
The following is the lecture record:
Thank you very much for giving me this opportunity.I will briefly explain the arguments in my book in half an hour.If you want a 14 -minute version, you can look at my TED speech, but I am more interested in dialogue.
It has been two years since I talked about publishing this book with publishers to find this book.So far I are still working hard, hoping to have more ideas.If you observe the changes in US -China relations in the past few years, you may be confused even if you don't observe it carefully.China has been regarded as friends in the United States for 25 years, and now Washington's attitude on China and China has changed 180 degrees.
After Obama's departure, China calls China a strategic partner country. President Bush has called to China. President Clinton said that China is a strategic opponent hell; hellip; Now the change of American attitude is not only the point of view of the Trump administration.The entire Washington Political Class view.At present, the US Democratic Party and Republican Party have a consistent attitude towards China; Mdash; MDASH; none of the scholars' two courts have publicly opposed the current Chinese policy direction. You can see this from the vote of Congress.To help us understand what is happening, I will put forward a grand idea, which is actually the idea of my book.I will tell you my current idea.But I am not satisfied with the results I have made, and I hope you have a better idea.
People who know the danger of Xunxidd's trap Mdash; mdash; Chinese President ...
At present, the person who knows the danger of Xunxidd's trap is the Chinese President ... As he often said, the method of dealing with challenges of China and China and the United States is to establish a new type of great power relationship.President Xi ’s concept of the relationship between the new type of great power and his expression of this proposal is the perfect mdash; mdash; he gave the guideline and hoped that the United States would work together, but the Obama government at the time did not participate in MDash; mdash; this was a mistake.decision.
In the history of several centuries, countless different countries have fallen into disaster conflict, and this is definitely not the direction of the development of Sino -US relations we want.Therefore, in order to prevent this situation, we need to have a new or positive relationship.
How many simple questions: Is China rising or has it rising?How does China's rise affect the international order that the United States has always dominated?Why is there a war, especially no one wants to happen?Is war between the United States and China inevitable?When will the people in the United States and China work work?Finally, how to get rid of these traps?
Why did Washington start to pay attention to such a theme today?After that, I would say a little more.It is dangerous for a rising power to replace the strong power of the rule.Is there a reason for China's rise?Yes, it has risen quickly, faster than any country in history, and continues to rise.What impact does this affect the United States when China realizes its dream?It inevitably approaches the position and privilege of the United States at the top of order.How can we lead to war in such a development?How did China and the United States fall in a state of war in 1950?This confrontation caused a kind of harm that is easy to be affected by extreme behaviors. These actions have nothing to do with the intention of third parties, but the intention of the main opponent. This is still another area that needs to be followed., Even a disaster conflict.Is war between China and the United States inevitable?No, let me say it three times immediately.No, it is not inevitable, not inevitable.This book does not say that war is inevitable.The purpose of this book is to prevent war, not to predict the war, nor does it think that war is a good idea.War is a crazy idea, a catastrophic idea.If such a situation occurs, politicians cannot blame certain history. This is their failed action. They can have taken measures to avoid a war.The purpose of this book is to inspire Chinese, Americans, and people in the world to think: What can we do to prevent war?
China's rise: What is the trap of Juxiedid?
If the Sudan people are watching Sino -US relations, he will think that this is the greatest rise force I have ever seen, and we have an unstoppable force and an constant goal.Isn't this a collision that people have been looking forward to seeing?I think he would say that too.Washington and Beijing should use strategic imagination in avoiding falling traps.
You are everywhere in WeChat and the circle of friends. He is a great thinker and historian.The trap of Xunxidd is said to be the history of the Peninsula War. It is about the war between Athens and Sparta. This war destroyed two major cities in classic Greece.The Xiu Xidded trap is a term quoted 16 years ago.My point is that when a rising strong country threatened to replace a strong country, its result was often war.I sorted out the history that happened in Greece 2500 years ago in research.At that time, the rise of Athens was amazing, and its impact on other countries was terrible; the Spartan had ruled Greece for 100 years at the time, and eventually, they broke out.That's right, maybe history works like this, maybe not.But you should really understand that history.
I made this short and vivid introduction to TED, but in fact it is another version of an article I wrote for China Daily.It raised a problem. What happened to you in the forty years since the reform and opening up in 1978, what happened to China?At the beginning of reform and opening up, how many Chinese people could not rely on two dollars to struggle to survive every day?This is the extreme poverty level of the World Bank.Guess?How much is the Chinese with less than two dollars a day?99%.If you have two dollars a day, then you spend most of your day looking for enough food for you and your family, just to barely maintain your livelihood.Today, 40 years later, 99%became 1%.99%of the living standards of Chinese people have been raised to this level, which has never been used in history.
The passage project between Kennedy College and the Business School has begun to be the dean of Kennedy College.This project began in 2012 and is expected to be completed in 2014, but it is still not completed in 2014. It was not officially completed until 2017, which was doubled than expected.When I came to Beijing in 2016, the Beijing Municipal Government decided to upgrade the Sanyuan Bridge with two lanes. How long did it take?Let's guess first, how long will it take?The answer is 43 hours.I told the deputy mayor of Beijing at the time that if he could come to Harvard to complete the construction of the project, I would make a little contribution.
How does China affect the interests of the United States in all aspects?Please watch this animation. I made this animation in 2015 so that people can better understand the background of the Obama administration's rebalancing strategy for Asia.I drew a seesaw, each of which represents the GDP of the two countries.In 2004, China was about half of the United States; in 2014, China was slightly larger than the United States. By 2024, China will twice as high as the United States in the current trend.When the United States discusses the so -called re -balance, it is to reduce the weight of our left and fight in the Middle East to add more weight to the right side of Asia, but the seesaw has always left the ground.of.This is the structure of power and the power structure when GDP is transferred.What does this mean?The answer is to have a great impact on all fields.An example is trade. The United States was once the main trading partner of Asian countries, and now China has become the leader.With the rise of China, it inevitably replaces the dominant position of the United States until the American friendly partners are used to this phenomenon.
In the current debate, is China a partner or opponent?What does this mean in a world that China is a major trading partner?This is a small test I gave my Harvard students. When will China become the first place? Students need to fill in the column on the right. I actually have 46 indicators.These are just a short version.They wrote 2020, 2030, my life time, etc., and the answers were different.Then I showed them this slide, which said that these things had happened.China is the largest manufacturing country. China already has the largest middle class and has the largest billionaire.Measured by purchasing power parity, China already has the largest GDP.
Former Singapore Prime Minister Li Guangyao was my mentor in China. I was lucky to know him. In decades, we spent a lot of time on Chinese issues.Both Chinese and American leaders hope to communicate and discuss with Lee Kuan Yew. The reason why they do so is that Lee Kuan Yew has a great strategic thinking, and he knows very deeply about China and the United States today.And he can control the future situation.In fact, I also wrote a book about him, you can take a look.There is such a question in the book. In the foreseeable future, do the current leaders of China seriously consider to replace the leading force of the United States to become Asia?The Chinese usually feel uncomfortable about this problem, Lee Kuan Yew said, of course.why not?Can anyone think so?How can China not want to become the world's first?
In my book, I reviewed the history of the past five hundred years.Sixteen cases were related to the threat of the rising power of the rising power.There were 12 of these cases ending in war, and there were no violent conflicts in the four.If you log in to a website about Xiu Xidid's trap, you will see these cases and data information, and you will also argue about them.Interestingly, every situation is different, but in general, the rise of Athens, or the rise of Germany a hundred years ago, or the rise of China, and trying to replace or disrupt the current power MDASH; mdash; Sparta, Britain, Britain, Britain, The United States, the result is often violent conflict.But there was no war in the four cases.So what happened in this?This is very complicated, every situation is different, but they can basically be divided into three levels.The first layer is material, objective conditions; the second layer is perception, emotion, and psychology, that is, Marx's energy; the third layer is politics, and the government internally governments fight for power.When China realizes its great dream, the great Chinese people can realize the great rejuvenation, reduce China's poor population, and make them live a well -off life. Therefore, the desire of the Chinese to get rich is noble, reasonable, and understandable.However, the United States is used to the highest position in each transaction: becoming the largest trading partner, the most billionaire with the most artificial intelligence, and artificial intelligence.The same is true in Britain.In this sense, there should be real objective conditions.Secondly, the objective conditions are processed by perception, emotion and psychology, which often cause illusion.In the trap of Xiu Xidid, the key factor is Spartan's fear.
Therefore, the combination of perception, emotion and psychology often leads to misunderstanding or even misjudgment.Finally, in each government's competitive politics, no one wants to have any objections on national security issues, so everyone strives to be harder than his political opponents.In fact, in the current debate of Washington, you can see that the position of the Democratic parties is to oppose China from the right, which seems incredible, but this is a political way, especially the politics of national security issues.This brings a huge vulnerability. Under the stimulus of some extreme third -party behaviors, the possibility of war arises.There is a very interesting chapter in my book, the competition between Germany and Britain in 1914.In June 1914, a Grand Duke was assassinated in Sarajewo. He had nothing to do with Britain and Germany. However, the incident made the entire European state in a state of war within six weeks, and destroyed the dominance of the entire Europe and the world within four years.Therefore, the behavior and external behavior of third parties will affect, especially in the fragile and sensitive period.What I want to say is that when examining the current US -China relations, the most worrying thing now is the North Korean issue and the Taiwan issue. Both of them look dangerous.
Sino -US joint force: How to prevent Sino -US relations from falling into Xiu Xide's trap?
So far I have found the possibility of nine types that may avoid the trap of Xunlid.Let me mention two of them. This is to stimulate your imagination. I hope to hear the voices of others.
The first idea was to recognize, this was what a Chinese friend said.He said why we did not simply realize that the threat to us comes from this dynamics.We are all facing a condition. A structural condition that China is rising. China will continue to develop for its own interests, not for other countries.In the 70 years without war, the United States has worked hard to maintain leadership in international order, which is very good for the world.We realize that this competition has caused this vulnerability.Therefore, let's take this as a problem: how to manage this vulnerability in a new type of great power to prevent third -party actions from provoking and triggering war?First, recognize systemic threats.This is a systemic threat that comes from structural reality, not the intention of any party; second, to prevent crisis together.Joint operations should play a role in crisis prevention.What is the role of Taiwan in this issue?What can we do now to prevent this?How will the North Korean incident affect?What kind of work can I do?What can we do today to deal with this problem?Will the situation in the South China Sea lead the crisis upgrade?What can we do today to deal with this problem?What is fundamentally needed is crisis management and prepare for the crisis.But we know that although we do our best to prevent crises, the bad results will happen.Therefore, when things happen, we must also actively establish communication channels and need multiple levels of communication lines, such as frank conversations between the military and the military.
The second idea comes from a colleague from Shanghai, the combination of the ideas of China and the United States.The so -called competitive partnership is standing aside and cooperating with the other side.For example, Apple and Samsung are competitors selling smartphones. Samsung has led Apple in terms of smartphone sales, but Samsung is also Apple's largest supplier. Therefore, in a sense, Apple and Samsung are both partners.It's competitors again.In fact, this is no different from the ideas that Kennedy's Cuban missiles came up with.In the Cuban missile crisis, almost experienced a nuclear war that could have eliminated hundreds of millions of people. Kennedy believed that he had not succeeded.So he thought: we should not go through such an incident.Kennedy said to the Soviet Union after the Cuban missile crisis: We must create a safe world for diversity.Today I still agree with this statement that the United States must find a way to coexist with the Soviet Union.Therefore, can we adopt these two views today and combine them to propose a certain concept as a strategic foundation for Sino -US relations?
As for the positive forces between the West and China, it is very important for China and the United States to satisfy their ambitions. This cooperation effectively balances issues that may develop into conflict.
First of all, China and the United States should cooperate in necessary areas to cooperate with mdash; mdash; Mdash; prevent war and the path to war, and the fields that both parties are involved in MDash; mdash; joint military exercises may be the direction of progress.China and the United States should seek preventive measures on the Korean Peninsula issue and Taiwan issues.Secondly, climate cooperation is a key area for cooperation, which is essential for all parties.If China continues to discharge a large amount of greenhouse gases like it is now, if the United States in the next half a centuryTo persist in climate negotiation, the world will become worse.China and the United States should form a joint force to solve this problem, which is an important common interest.
If it was not a joint action between China and the United States, the financial crisis in 2008 would become a Great Depression, and these reactions were actually produced in a series of interaction and trust relationships formed in more than two years.If this happens today, why is there no confidence in how to solve it?
Suppose the financial crisis in 2008 has become a major decline or even another Great Depression.The last Great Depression, Fascism appeared in Europe.I can list some more examples, but I think I should pay attention to more positive and more important ideas.
Each of the nine possibilities I proposed is very attractive to me, so this is why I still continue to find the possibility, not just summarizing ideas.I hope to leave some good ideas.
Thanks!
Note: This article is authorized by the global think tank and does not represent the view of FT Chinese website.CCG, referred to as CCG, is the leading international think tank in China.CCG is committed to China's globalization strategy, internationalization and internationalization of corporate internationalization. At present, there are nearly 100 research think tank research and professionals in full -time think tanks.
