Shen Jianguang: Reaching an agreement is only the first step in the Sino -US trade dispute, and the subsequent commitment is still very important; the more warning, the more you need to cherish it to avoid misjudgment.
After the two sessions each year, China's development of high -level forums (hereinafter referred to as high -level forums) will discuss the current important topics of global and Chinese economy.This year, the theme of high -level forums adhere to the expansion of opening up and promoting win -win cooperation. It is in line with the background of the surging trend of globalization in recent years and the intensified Sino -US trade friction.Many discussions at the meeting provide useful references to thinking about the evolution and future of Sino -US relations, and how to conform to the profound changes in the global and China's economic and political environment.
Sino -US relations in the change
The author has participated in the high -level forum for many years. Although the Sino -US trade issue has only been intensified last year and upgraded to the Sino -US trade war, it has repeatedly mentioned the changes in Sino -US relations in recent years.As early as 2015, when the author participated in the high -level forum, many speeches of the forum had mentioned the reality of China -US wrestling, which actually laid a foreshadowing for the later appearance of the trade war.
For example, in the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Rubin before 2015, a new phenomenon was mentioned, that is, when China and the United States discussed bilateral relations, they often started from criticizing each other: the United States complained that the RMB exchange rate was intervened, the government's government, and the government.Enterprises, land and other aspects of inexplicable subsidies, as well as China ’s poor protection of intellectual property rights; while China is dissatisfied with the US’ s control of high -tech products exports to China and restrictions on the implementation of Chinese enterprises in the United States.At the same time, not only did politicians publicly publish a speech concerned about Sino -US relations, and the gap between the forums, the author also heard the words of American companies complaining about Chinese companies.
Former US Secretary of State Dr. Kissinger Kissinger even described the essence behind China and the United States friction as a traditional conflict between the rise of China and the United States in the 2015 forum speech.The author also published a column of China's new economic normal and very good diplomacy on the FT Chinese website in 2015. In fact, Sino -US relations have actually entered a very state. China's rise will have an impact on existing international order and US hegemony.It means that the friction between China and the United States in the economy, politics, and diplomatic fields in the future will continue to exacerbate, and Sino -US relations may have entered a very state of mutual testing, adjustment, and reshaping.
Compared with the forum this year, although the current Sino -US trade negotiations are still continuing, there are still differences between China and the United States around state -owned enterprise subsidies and the implementation of an open mechanism. However, at the forum this year, foreign representatives have rarely involved these parts in their speeches.Most speeches look respectful and etiquette.The leaders of the US business financial community Dario, Cook, etc. are optimistic about the prospects of Sino -US economic and trade prospects, and some American representatives mentioned the community of human destiny, which is very in line with the Chinese tone. Relatively speaking, the warning and constructive opinions are very goodlimited.
But in fact, the more warning, the more you need to cherish it. Only when you see the problems in time, and ask the problem, can you do a good job in advance, so as not to misjudge the situation and increase the pressure on the operation of the internal and external economic operations.In my opinion, although the current Sino -US trade negotiation agreement reaching an agreement is a high probability event, and the negotiations between China and the United States have also made important progress in technical transfer, intellectual property protection, non -tariff barriers, service industries, agriculture, and exchange rates. HoweverIn terms of competitive neutrality and state -owned enterprise positioning, there are still differences in China and the United States that need to be resolved.What must be seen is that the reaching agreement is only the first step to solve the Sino -US trade dispute. The subsequent trade commitment execution mechanism is still very important. It is inevitable that there will be more twists and turns in the process of implementing the implementation of the agreement.
Expand openness and response external pressure
Of course, after 40 years of reform and opening up, it has been used as a mouth to cope with external risks. At present, the information conveyed by Chinese high -level officials is already clear: it is about to open up to a higher stage.For example, at this forum, the speech of China's decision -making layer conveys clear open signals.For example, Han Zheng, deputy prime minister of the State Council, emphasized that China will unswervingly expand the opening up, not only in the financial field, but also allows more than the implementation of foreign -owned foreign capital and accelerate the opening of the open process of telecommunications, education, medical care, and health.Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Finance and Economics Committee, said that it will seriously implement the foreign investment law, implement the management system of national treatment plus negative list before admission, and stipulate that forbidden to transfer coercive technology and follow the road of open cooperation.
Yi Gang, president of the central bank, said that the financial reform and opening up were further promoted, the reform of the financial regulatory system was promoted, and interest rates, exchange rates, and market -oriented formation mechanisms were improved.Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, also said that the opening of capital projects will focus on promoting the opening of a small number of unable to convertible projects and increasing the degree of convenience of exchangeables.Wang Zhaoxing, Vice Chairman of the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, proposed that the next step of financial opening and areas includes further relaxation of market access conditions, canceling or relaxing the number of foreign financial institutions entering the domestic market in terms of scale, years, shareholder type and shareholding ratio.Restrictions, as well as widening the business scope of foreign financial institutions.
In my opinion, the determination of China to resolve the Sino -US trade dispute is already clear, and a series of measures and expressions of expanding openness are relatively positive, which is worthy of recognition.In fact, China's reform and opening up space is huge. Although facing the external uncertainty of the Sino -US trade disputes, since the Boao Forum announced a number of open measures after last year, Tesla has announced that it has invested 5 billion US dollars in Shanghai to build a plant.At the same time, BASF and Mobil have also launched a 10 billion US dollar project in China.In terms of Belt and Road Interest, China has not only signed cooperation documents for the Belt and Road Initiative with more than 140 countries and international organizations. Recently, it has also signed the Belt and Road Cooperation Agreement with Italy. Italy has become the first G7 country to join the China Belt and Road Initiative.
From this perspective, if the expansion of opening up can continue to advance, it is not only the need for slow -release external pressure, but also provides important opportunities for the transformation and development of the Chinese economy. It is the best policy choice under balanced internal and external pressure.Of course, there are still many uncertainty in the process of promoting a new round of opening in the future.For example, how to reaching an agreement with the United States to open up with the United States and the supervision mechanism to reduce external pressure still needs to be finalized.It is not easy for how to truly implement the principles of competitive neutrality, cancel subsidies for state -owned enterprises, and cancel various invisible restrictions on foreign capital. It is not easy. How to implement it is still a focus on the focus.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
