One of the main reasons for the second US -North Korea summit is that one of the main reasons is difficult to reconcile whether the two sides have relaxed the differences in Korean economic sanctions.
After the unsuccessful summit ended, the atmosphere of Washington made the Trump administration's position on the North Korean nuclear issue more flexible than before, but may be more tough.Recently, even in the past, the United States, which had a relatively mild speech in the past, specially represented the policy of North Korea, and publicly stated that the United States will not accept North Korea's stages without nuclearization.
At present, it is difficult for the United States to agree with any aspects (whether North Korea, South Korea, China, or Russia) proposes to relax the economic sanctions on North Korea.It believes that economic sanctions are playing effects, and it is the main means for North Korea to move towards unparalleledization.The lack of persuasiveness to encourage North Korea's abandonment of nuclear abandonment, especially when there is no sufficient evidence that Kim Jong -un has sincerity to abandon nuclear.
It should also be pointed out that under the premise of not relaxing economic sanctions on the DPRK, there are actually two choices in the United States: one is to maintain the existing economic sanctions on the DPRK; the other is to continue to strengthen the economic sanctions against the DPRK.If you want to evaluate the good or bad, you need to consider the following issues: How much is the current economic sanctions on the North Korean economy?Some people think that sanctions will be really effective within one or two years. However, is such views a bit optimistic?
Existing economic sanctions can prevent North Korea's economy development, increase its financial difficulties, and make Kim Jong -un's new strategic route mdash; mdash; to concentrate all forces to make socialist economic construction difficult to achieve success.However, it is unlikely that the North Korean economy has collapsed in a short period of time.Although the North Korean economy is facing heavy problems, it can be maintained at least within a certain period of time.In this way, the Kim Jong -un regime has its economic foundation. At present, it will not be unbearable due to economic pressure, but is forced to make a decisive concession on the issue of non -nuclearization.
To make international sanctions have a greater impact on North Korea, and put economic cooperation with North Korea or assist it in some aspects of sanctions, it is necessary to strengthen sanctions in the United States. It is not enough to maintain existing sanctions.It may have the following consequences on strengthening economic sanctions: North Korea's economy and even politics, society and other aspects will be more negative, and Kim Jong -un's new strategic route is more difficult to succeed, which is more or less conducive to his continued consolidation in China to consolidateIts dominance is authoritative.
In addition, the United States can have more chips in the future negotiations of the DPRK, and the newly launched economic sanctions may be used as a consideration in exchange for North Korea in exchange for North Korea.In addition, if the United States strengthens economic sanctions, it will also have an impact on China -DPRK relations and South Korea -DPRK relations.The Chinese government will secretly relax the economic sanctions on the North Korea, and the Wen Zaiyin government's attitude towards the restarting Kaicheng Industrial Park and the Jinshan Tourism Project will be more realistic.In this way, the further improvement of the relationship between China and the North Korea and North Korea should be restricted to some extent.
At present, in addition to strengthening the implementation of existing sanctions resolutions, the United States is still difficult to promote the UN Security Council to pass the new sanctions on North Korea, especially when North Korea has not conducted new nuclear tests or missile testing.However, the U.S. Congress can pass the additional sanctions against the DPRK, which will have many significance of economic and psychological warfare.Added sanctions is not the goal. The purpose is to promote the decisive steps by increasing pressure to promote the decisive steps, and this is very important for establishing a stable and peaceful peace on the Korean Peninsula.
It should also be pointed out that if strengthening economic sanctions cooperate with military pressure, better results should be achieved.According to South Korean media reports, two B-52 strategic bomber flying over the Korean Peninsula on the 19th of the US Air Force on the 19th.In the future, if the United States has taken more action against North Korea in terms of military and diplomacy, it will not surprise people.
The United States has previously emphasized the greatest pressure on North Korea, forcing it to abandon the nuclear.But in fact, the United States has not really done this. At present, the pressure on North Korea has not yet reached its maximum, but there is room for further strengthening.
Since 2018, with the ease of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the screws on sanctions on North Korea may be loosened by lack of alertness in the international community.As for whether the United States will achieve its maximum pressure on the sanctions and other means in the future, it depends on its specific actions and the degree of cooperation of other countries.
The author is a scholar, a doctor of history
