Source: Liberty Times
The US President Trump, a businessman, has always been proud of transaction. Therefore, since he was in office, the outside world has been worried that he will give up or sacrifice the established position of US diplomacy and economic and trade policies in order to reach a transaction.But the two important negotiations he recently participated in, but the previous impression was amended.For example, he held the second meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong -un in Hanoi, Vietnam at the end of February. Most observations and judgments may have obtained local progress in North Korea's de -nuclear agenda.As a result, it was surprisingly ended with breaking the game.Although the two parties have not been talking about and retain room for continuing to negotiate in the future, Trump leaves a classic famous sentence:
If it wasn't for a good agreement, he would not accept it, so he would leave directly!
Similarly, the US -China trade negotiations, which are in full swing, was originally completed before March 1st, but Trump decided to extend the period and also hinted that he would have a SIGNING SUMMIT with China.As a result, not only did the date extended from the end of March to April, Trump's latest statement was that he was not in a hurry to sign a trade agreement with China, and the agreement was not good.
A few days ago, after seeing that the Kyoto Society of Kawaikawa broke the situation, I was worried that if Trump had a home advantage, the Florida Haihu Manor was also beaten, and his face would not be able to hang up.Similarly, Kim Jong -un was shocked by seeing Trump's unhappy negotiation behavior. The North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Guaguan revealed that Kim Jong -un was puzzled by this.
In the real negotiation scene, it is a means to make mystery, black face and white face, and retreat. Once hosted the TV reality show who is the successor Trump, the most famous bridge section is to use "you are fired" to the sceneFry the unqualified contestants.After becoming the president, he seemed to have brought this set of negotiating strategies that have accumulated in the mall for many years to the international political stage.
It is said that a team uses big data to collect Trump's negotiating model on various occasions since the debut of Trump, with in -depth analysis of his speeches on trade issues, and the works published by people as a reference with Trump.EssenceKim Jong -un has obviously studied Trump's negotiation skills.However, Xi and Jin obviously have not seized the essence and underestimated Trump's ability.
Exploring Trump's two lessons to the two opponents of Jin and Xi, in fact, Trump himself also has the director.As the most powerful leader in the world, he has the huge and professional staff of the staff to provide negotiating related emotion and suggestions.Although Trump's most criticism is that at the beginning of the ruling, he despised the love analysis and policy suggestions of professional civilians to a certain extent. He did not like to spend too much time to read the Guoan Briefing, but the novice president finally realized that he was realized.Non -universal, especially at the same time, will have two negotiations with the death of North Korea and China at the same time. No matter how clever he is, he has to rely on the opinions of professional staff.
Because Xi and Jin also saw Trump's decision -making weaknesses, they tried to deal directly negotiating with him, and tried to prevent Trump from being influenced by the professional staff team.For example, for more than three months in Trump, he boldly went to Haihu Manor to contact Trump for his first contact with Trump. He also used a long history of US -China relations to give Trump class.Beijing also tried to open up the pipeline of Trump's son -in -law and daughter through non -diplomatic channels.All these diplomatic shops wanted to borrow Trustpy as soon as possible. While the White House was still in a mess, it affected Trump's thinking about China.
Kim Jong -un took the same strategy. At the historic Sichuan Gold Association last year, Kim Jong -un and Trump only took the interpreter to eliminate the core staff and gave one to one meeting first.In the traditional foreign negotiation rules, this is actually a taboo for soldiers.Because of this major negotiations, it is usually necessary to negotiate with the staff level many times to form a consensus, and finally the leaders of the two sides will come on to reach an agreement symbolically.
But apparently Kim Jong -un has smelled Trump's favorite habits and believes that he can deal with Trump directly, and he can get the Shangfang sword without being intervened by technical bureaucrats.Of course, the top -down negotiation model will of course make the staff level tense.
But Xi and Jin obviously misjudged Trump.After all, Trump has also accumulated more than two years of presidential experience. In the past, other countries wanted to go to the door of the door to go straight to the heavenly listening strategy, which also alert Trump and the White House staff.Compared with the chaos in the early days and no order, Trump's decision -making model has improved a lot.Although Trump himself still has domestic political considerations for re -election, he also shows full team self -confidence in listening and receiving professional staff suggestions.
Therefore, when Kim Jong -un thought he could use the abolition of the Ningbian nuclear test site to exchange the trading conditions for the lifting of international sanctions, Trump was immediately rejected.Trump's staff had already taken a prevention needle beforehand, so that Trump's conditional trading was not proportional.And Trump also understands that North Korea really abandon nuclear weapons, and Pyongyang has also had a record of multiple votes in the past. Therefore, it must not be too wishful in lift the international sanctions.In addition, the game between the Korean Peninsula is not only related to the United States and North Korea, but also involves the respective calculations of China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and other countries.
In particular, the relationship between China and North Korea is close. Even if Kim Jong -un took office until last year, he only visited last year, but whether he had a tacit understanding between him, trying to weaken the influence of the United States on the Korean Peninsula, it was always the United States.
In January of this year, after Kim Jong -un published the New Year's conversation, he visited Beijing again.Subsequently, China hoped that after the end of February, the Golden Council of Hanoi, then arranged Trump to conduct a Sichuan Xi conference in Hainan Island to discuss the US -China trade agreement.This is obviously the bottom line of Beijing's desire to use North Korean issues to influence Trump's trade negotiations on China.
Trump is also a non -fuel -saving lamp. He knows that he is conducting two unique, difficult, and long -term negotiations, and his two negotiated opponents also join forces in private. This pair of TrumpFor speaking, of course, you cannot easily score.In particular, the US direction has proposed a action to clarify structural reforms, otherwise Trump is still likely to increase taxes of 10%of Chinese products to US products to 25%.Just as North Korea's de -nuclearization is a time -consuming project, it is not easy to make a clear concession in issues such as forcing foreign business transfer, improper posting state -owned enterprises, and stealing smart property rights.
In this case, for Trump, the preferred choice is to cut the two difficult negotiations.The second is to have more patience and not have to reach an agreement easily to reach an agreement, because neither China and North Korea are not the objects that can be fully trusted.Of course, Trump must also make the worst plan, that is, if Kim Jong -un decided to suspend the negotiations and return to the provocation of nuclear weapons test explosion and missile testing, the United States must continue to overtake the strategy.Or Beijing has no intention of abandoning the bottom line of its trade negotiations, and Trump must also propose a more effective strategy.
