＂Come to the mainland with a bowl＂, what does South Korea want to order?

Author: Yan Mo

From March 22 to 28, 2018, South Korea ’s Yu will visit the four cities of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Macau, Shenzhen, and Xiamen. Although the purpose is the economic and cultural exchanges between cities, because South Korea is currently very popular on the island, there are even voices that they believe thatHe is likely to become a leader in Taiwan, so visiting Lu and the United States have received great attention, and the eyes of all parties have opened a lot.

According to reports, some mainland netizens believe that Han is holding a bowl. Of course, the mayor who is carrying heavy debt, holding a bowl to bow everywhere to ask for an order, is the responsibility, and it is natural to go to the mainland.Being over for the people is a heroic act, there is no shame.

In fact, people have not yet gone, Kaohsiung has received a large number of orders, namely Chaozhou, Guangdong, Liandu Trading Company 1 billion yuan (NT $), Jiangsu Wenfeng Group 500 million orders in one year, and in office for more than 80 days in Han.After becoming the first and second place in the top three orders.In the past few days, there are also Macao private enterprises purchased by 66 million flowers for flowers, including 51 suppliers in Macau in one year.

The bowl of Korean Yu is now full of tangible or intangible gifts. The scenery is Kaohsiung, and Chen Ju, who owed high debts, and let the county heads have to hold the bowls and bend over.The Democratic Progressive Party authorities are full of ridicule, suppression, and everywhere.

However, compared to 300 billion debt, these gifts are still a lot of money. Kaohsiung, and even the entire Taiwan, requires big business and great hope. South Korea ’s Yu can only do it with the status of the mayor of the district.With the mayor of Kaohsiung, it is too late to realize that Kaohsiung may not save Kaohsiung.

Let's calculate the account first, how many bottoms do there be in Taiwan?

Korean Yu wants to put seeds in the bowl

The so -called home base is the bottom of the foreign exchange deposit and the gold reserves.Taiwan's gold reserves are about 324 metric tons, about NT $ 388.8 billion, and about 460 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange deposits. About 92%of foreign capital holding [Note 1] is 36.8 billion U.S. dollars, about NT $ 114 (trillion).The two are about 1.52 trillion, and the total budget of the central government is about 1.96 trillion each year.

In other words, Taiwan's family is not enough to support the total government budget for one year, while Kaohsiung liabilities account for 20 % of the family.

Furthermore, 80 % to 90 % of the foreign exchange deposits are in the hands of foreign investment, and most of the foreign capital is mainly based on the most liquid securities investment. If foreign capital is withdrawn in a short period of time, there are only half of Taiwan's immortality.This means that Taiwan must be bone for a foreign capital structure.

Taiwan's foreign -funded structure is FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investment) is far greater than FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), FDI (foreign direct investment) means that foreigners have remitted funds into Taiwan for long -term investment and plant construction.FPI refers to the investment portfolio, and funds are imported into Taiwan.

In terms of vernacular, FDI is an investment cost that foreigners are more willing to bear risk. FPI is a gambling book that foreigners saw that the situation in Taiwan was good. When it was not good, they immediately withdrew.In other words, Taiwan's foreign capital structure is mostly gamblers, but there are very few operators.

There are about $ 1.5 trillion funds in the world, and Hong Kong can often grab a share of nearly 100 billion yuan, and Taiwan rarely exceeds 10 billion.The FDI is less than 10 billion, but the FPI is as high as $ 200 billion. Everyone is here to bet, which is Taiwan's deep economic problem.In other words, Taiwan should need to greatly improve the FDI. From the Nine -in -one election, the DPP candidate Chen Qimai and South Korea Yu shouted to attract investment to obtain proof.

Taiwan's FDI accounts for only 1.1%of GDP, which is quite weak.It is true that the amount of FDI amount is not necessarily positive with economic growth. Some economies such as Singapore and Hong Kong account for 20%and nearly 40%of GDP, and South Korea is only 0.7%.In the region, the FDI in the Netherlands accounts for 30 % of GDP, but the economy has long been low for a long time.

Showing whether the FDI is the main source of growth of the economy, the orientation of the economy pays more attention to the development of local industries, or uses foreign capital as the driving force for economic growth.Star Horse obviously belongs to the latter, and Taiwan and the mainland are more inclined to the former.

The focus is that Taiwan's main industries and exports are facing bottlenecks, and foreign FDIs need to inject live water into the driving force for economic structural adjustment.This is why South Korea ’s Yu’ s Re -Malaysia -Malaysia period has recently remembered the Freedom Economic Demonstration Zone (Intrillery Zone) plan. The plan is actually the policy of focusing on FDI to say goodbye to the economic conservative policy.accomplish.

Therefore, South Korean Yu visited four cities in the mainland and wanted to put it in the bowl back to Taiwan. It is the two seeds of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative.It can be used for Taiwan's economy and can also deepen cross -strait economic and trade and cultural exchanges.The remaining orders or pandas are just small gifts that are highly promoted.(Of course, Kaohsiung can afford panda, and most of the companies will adopt it. This problem should be from the perspective of panda conservation, not financial burden.)

The economic strategies of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative should be very familiar with mainland China, but few people in Taiwan know that the value of South Korea ’s Yu is to transform it into the language of the people and eliminate obstacles on the road.

Establishing from the Economic Zone and docking with the Special Economic and Trade Zone of the Mainland can solve the problem of being marginalized by Taiwan's signing of FTA's backwardness. Of course, political opponents will also make accusations in the same cage.Taiwan joined CPTPP and RCEP, and the hope of signing FTA with the United States is also very slim, and there is no cage at all.

Therefore, after South Korea Yu returned to Taiwan with seeds, he would immediately enter the political civil war.

In 2020, the bandit is winning

After Lai Qingde announced the election, the DPP immediately fell into a civil war, but the difference between Cai Lai was only the independence of 85 degrees C and the independence of 100 degrees C.Winning.Even if it is defeated, the DPP will be able to retract the East Mountains of 40 degrees C.

Therefore, this year's blue -green winning is the duel of the economic card and the crisis. The main axis of the election campaign in the blue camp will undoubtedly apply the economic proposition layout of South Korea ’s Yu, no matter who the candidate is.

Nowadays, the green camp voters are anxious that they should be a little far or closer to the middle route, because Cai Lai has divergent.The blue camp voters are anxious that the push lamb has no chance of winning, and the bandit lacks legitimacy.

Lamb, the traditional elites of the Kuomintang, Ma, Wang, Zhu, Wu, such, are conservative and unprepared.Bandit, South Korea Yu also, grounded, dare to break through, and have high war and high war.After 20 years of supporters, the Lan Camp supporters only appeared in a bandit leader to fight the Green Army, letting those with high combat power trapped a city, and used the lamb as a striker. The anxiety was normal.

In fact, of course, South Korean Yu's election can be legitimate, and it is very simple. You only need to put the campaign's main axis in making Kaohsiung a Taiwan economic center. It is also necessary to become a political center.What is the mayor?Taking the end of the first -level political senior management, and Kaohsiung is indeed ill, and it is difficult to cure the medicine.

Kaohsiung is indeed conditions to become the island economic center, but it is by no means a mayor -level level.

The Kuomintang legislators and 15 counties and cities have pushed the economy from the Economic Zone. Although the direction is correct, the practice lacks strategies.The reason why this policy was promoted during the Malaysian period was because of the original intention of abandoning Kaohsiung as the starting point, renovating the free economic island of Taiwan, and planning Liuhai and one air (six seaports and an airport, plus Pingtung Shengsheng.Technical Park) Expansion architecture.

Due to the different backgrounds of each city, the problems encountered are also different, and the self -regional plan is originally an experimental plan. From the perspective of Taiwan’s political environment, it should beSmall and larger, starting with a single city, gradually expand to other counties and cities in the process of constantly adjusting and correction to effectively avoid the destruction of the previous planning.

The reason for failure is that except the Green Camp's Ge Ge, in the final analysis, the blue committee does not unite, not united, because of the contradictions of the interests of various regions, and the knowledge is obviously insufficient.

For a big plan, there must be a resolutely determined helm, but the horse king's problem often makes the Kuomintang govern often present a double -headed carriage, and sometimes even the carriage collision. This is the illness of the blue camp.The main reason.If you do n’t see it, the DPP is completely in power. What the bill is pushed? What kind of case is the case?This cannot be pushed to the seat without enough, but that the Blue Camp has never been caused by an absolute leader in the inner fight.

Therefore, South Korea ’s Yu should remember the previous lessons. While the 2020 elections, the time of the legislators needed the time to integrate a team of regional legislators to promote the adult zone to form a bandit combat power to enforcementIn response to the threat tactics of the green camp.

Long -term benefits are more important than short -term rescue

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce of the Mainland, if the total amount of Taiwanese business investments in the mainland, if the third place is invested, the actual use of Taiwanese capital is about 130 billion U.S. dollars.Each year, the amount of investment from Taiwan is either the first place or the second place. When Hong Kong is the first place, Hong Kong capital also includes many Taiwanese capital investments in the mainland in the name of Hong Kong businessmen.

On the other hand, the amount of investment in Taiwan has set up layers of restrictions on Taiwan, so since the opening of land capital in 2009, it has only a total of nearly $ 2.2 billion.

For Taiwan, one of the significance of the Special Economic and Trade Zone is actually loosening in regulations to attract land and talents to settle in and allow cross -strait economic and trade exchanges to develop in the direction of mutual benefit and mutual dependence.

I have always disagreed with political benefits. I believe that South Korea ’s Yu will not think that this is the right way. The mutually beneficial benefits of economic and trade under the large structure can obtain tangible and intangible benefits, which is much higher than the temporary concession.Therefore, when Xie Longjie frequently emphasized the mainland orders in Tainan, I think he might underestimate the peasants. In the short -term rescue and long -term interests, farmers and fishermen can actually see clearly.To explain more about the economic and trade exchanges of large structures, which can produce more conducive to the production and sales structure of farmers and fishermen is the correct direction of policy publicity.

The docking of the Special Economic and Trade Zone of the Cross -Strait has been promoted. No one is a bandit. The bandits in cross -strait relations are the commercial Taiwan independence that personally said no, and secretly fishing for money on the mainland.

As for whether South Korean Yu can play a promoted role in cross -strait political consultations?It was another important issue. The focus of observation is what kind of interaction between the Kuomintang's economic cards to play the cross -strait economic cards, which can analyze the special articles in time.

[Note 1] Foreign capital holding the proportion of foreign exchange deposits in Taiwan, often swimming between 85%-95%.