Ming Pao Author: Liu Lanchang

Earlier the end of the Golden Council, it was surprising that there was no agreement to reach, but it only said that there was progress.This is rare in international diplomacy, indicating that there is still a long way to go to the Korean Peninsula.The author believes that the key is not the DPRK, but the United States, and the United States has made a choice of its long -term interests.

Trump needs North Korea to abandon nuclear as a service

Trump needs North Korea to abandon the nuclear as a re -service.Therefore, the Second Time Club he needs to wear his head aura without being attacked by the American internal opposition.Therefore, the international community saw that before the Second Special Government, Trump revealed at a press conference on February 15 that he had won the Nobel Peace Prize nomination recommendation from the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.Obviously, Trump wants this Nobel Peace Prize, which can compare his personal historical status with the Democratic President Barack Obama. In front of it, this award is undoubtedly endless for him to fight for reelection.Everyone knows whether Trump can get this award. The most important thing is the progress of no nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.Previously, he dared to break through the rules of many former presidents in the United States, broke the ice -breaking talks with the leader of the evil kingdom, re -opened the door to solve the problem of the North Korean nuclear, and obtained the affirmation of Asian countries including China and the world.Before the Second Summit, the DPRK -US talks seemed to be smooth. I believe that this is the phase and action of the DPRK to be accepted by the United States.The large -scale joint military exercises in South Korea and the United States, and some sanctions involved in humanity and people's livelihood.

But Trump arrived in Hanoi, and there was a huge variable, that is, his past private lawyer Kon made a dedication to him on the Tong Russia issue. In addition, the Democratic Party also rejected his emergency order in the House of Representatives.I believe that in this harsh political environment, Trump needs to make new judgments on his political future on the Hanoi declaration, which was talked about with the DPRK.After weighing the advantages and disadvantages with his think tanks, the Trump team's choice was to increase the North Korean, as if the DPRK did not agree, he pulled down.Because the original Hanoi Declaration will be articles by the opposition. If the extreme pressure of overturning is successful, Kim Jong -un bowed his head, and Trump can return to the United States with a victor and reverse the unfavorable situation in China.

So what code is added?That is, to close one nuclear facilities more in the DPRK.Some media said that during the talks, the secret nuclear facilities of the DPRK were proposed by Trump, and Kim Jong -un was stunned, and he couldn't think of the United States.It is unknown whether this is the case, but it means that North Korea also has nuclear facilities, and the US media have been reported.Just after the first Special Championship, the United States Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) quoted intelligence assessment and official news, saying that North Korea increased nuclear fuel production at multiple secret locations.It is reported that five unknown US officials quoted the intelligence department report that when the US and North Korea made diplomatic mediation, North Korea secretly increased the production of concentrated uranium.The latest intelligence assessment revealed that different from the outside world, North Korea has more secret nuclear facilities.Regarding this report, the US CIA refused to comment, while the US State Department said that it was impossible to comment on intelligence matters and could not confirm the report.The White House did not respond to reports.I believe that Kim Jong -un also knows these reports of the United States.

Cohen for disruption Trump Ruyi abacus

Then, the author judges that the US -DPRK consultation before the second summit will definitely mention the specific situation of the North Korean nuclear facilities.It was first closed the Ningbian reactor to discharge some sanctions, and Trump also agreed to make progress.In fact, Trump's Twitter (Twitter) and public remarks have expressed this meaning, so the two sides will draft Hanoi declarations, while Kim Jong -un did not fear the boat and car to Layton to Hanoi for more than 60 hours.To Vietnam.

However, Cohen's confession disrupted Trump's wishful thinking.He must increase the increase and force Kim Jong -un to promise to close all the reactors before the sanctions are lifted.I believe that at this time, the two parties have actually talked about collapse, but the North Korean party may also have a valuation of Trump to revoke all sanctions and gave Trump a sip.

It is worth mentioning that before Kim Jong -un and Trump are unhappy and wandering, they can still control their emotions and say that they can also talk about it.Why?Because both need face.But who believes that there is a third special gold meeting?The author believes that there will be no before Trump's re -election project; and if he can re -election, he still needs to talk to Jin?As for Trump's unable to re -election, the new US president will come up, and the North Korean nuclear issue will repeat the mistakes of the DPRK and the United States about the abandoned nuclear framework in the 1990s.Reshuffle.It is worth celebrating that the key decisions of the large -scale joint military exercise in the United States and South Korea and the eagle are still suspended, but Trump values too much money.

The contradiction between Trump's interests and US strategic interests

In fact, the author has always been nuclear to Trump's decisions of the Korean Peninsula, which is pessimistic, because the American elite has considered the core interests of the United States on this issue.Without the nuclearization of the Peninsula, it may promote the U.S. military withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula and even a sharp contraction in Asia, causing the original global strategic collapse of the United States.On February 12, before the Second Special Championship, Robert Alberams, Commander of the Commander of the South Korea and the United States and the U.S. Army in Korea, attended the hearing of the US Senate Military Commission.After the conventional military threats, whether the U.S. military needs to continue to be stationed in South Korea. He warns that the negotiations of North Korea and the United States have brought a change, but it does not mean that North Korea's military situation has changed substantially.Symmetric combat forces have almost no change; in addition to the full deterrent of North Korea in South Korea, the U.S. military in Korea also play a role in blocking China's influence expansion on the protection wall of China's influence expansion for South Korea, Japan, and other partners in the region.These words have shown that the North Korean nuclear issue has been hooked with the US military in South Korea and even in Japan and in Asia.The more you talk deeply, the more involved the major strategic interests of the United States in Asia and the world, and the more exposed to dealing with the Nuclear Nuclear issue, Trump's personal interests and the strategic interests of the United States are more difficult to show the difficulty of the North Korean nuclear issue.In fact, it is not in the United States.On the surface, the US military has increased the burden, but this is the pillar of its global strategic interests.In fact, the Nuclear Domino card of the US strategic family is the most worried about the Nuclear Domino card: the Korean Peninsula has no denuclearization, the peace mechanism is realized, and the U.S. military has no reason to stay, and then Japan will also ask the U.S. military to leave.Although Abe and Wen Zaiyin are willing to give the Trump Peace Prize, Koreans and Japanese have always believed that the US military stays, and their country is not a normal country.In the 1990s, North Korea and the United States reached a nuclear framework agreement. At that time, North Korea did not have nuclear weapons or nuclear tests, but the agreement was torn by the United States as an excuse.

Today, the Twenty -Twenty -Temple will break, and the Nuclear issue is still.The most headache is South Korea, followed by China.

The author is a senior media person