Author: Luo Zhiqiang
As a result of this legislator, in terms of face, the Kuomintang is a small defeat. For Lizi, the Kuomintang is a victory.
The voting rate of legislators has not been high, and the existing voters' structure will be higher.The aura effect with the high -profile person is relatively weak.The addition of the two makes it easier to form the effect of maintaining the status quo, that is, the winning rate of the original party is relatively high.
From this basis, the face and lizi will be clearer.In terms of face, the original distribution of the 4 seats of the legislators was two Kuomintang (Golden Gate, Changhua) and the DPP (New Taipei and Tainan).Two seats (New Taipei and Tainan), the Kuomintang is one less than the original. The DPP maintains a flat disk. From the face, the total number of KMT seats has decreased.
In Lizi, the analysis is relatively complicated.First of all, although the Kuomintang lost the Golden Gate's seat, it did not affect the result of blue and green. Chen Yuzhen, who had no party membership, was originally the Kuomintang, but was dissatisfied with the Kuomintang's call for other people to run.In essence, this seat is still the Blue Army.
The Kuomintang's holding of Changhua is a flat.However, the New Taipei and Tainan legislators have two sides of the election.In Tainan, Huang Weizhe, who was elected in the last 2016 legislature election, won 76.46%of the super high votes in the constituency.Although the Democratic Progressive Party won this time, Guo Guowen's vote rate dropped steadily to 47.05%, Xie Longjie rose to 44.31%, and the votes were less than 3%.In fact, although it is defeated.
In New Taipei, the DPP Gao Zhipeng won 54.54%in 2016, and the KMT chose the voting rate was 35.43%, which lost nearly 20%.Although Yu Tian won this time, the gap between the voting rate was less than 10%.The Kuomintang and Zheng Shiwei can also be said to have gains. On the contrary, the two dark green legislators of Tainan and New Taipei are re -elected. The DPP can only win tragically.
As for the impact on the overall constituency of the 2020 presidential election.I think there are three.First, the Kuomintang's defeat in Kinmen is not a change in the blue -green structure, but a fair controversy from the primary election. Fairness is the legitimate foundation of nomination.At this point, the Kuomintang Central Committee's nomination in the future must be regarded as a warning, and must pay more attention to the fairness of the primary election.
Second, the DPP has maintained a flat disk on the face and kept the trend on the face, but on the inside, it is true that the support of great loss.
Third, because of this, the DPP does not need to proudly interpret the Korean flow, because from the two dark green constituencies in Tainan and New Taipei, the Kuomintang's defeat in 2016 quickly rose, and even approached the flat plate.Power is still an important factor, but it cannot be denied that the Kuomintang's hope of returning to governing all the hopes of returning to governing is a lazy mentality.The Kuomintang must create more supporting energy outside the Korean stream, and in 2020 to return to the biggest chance of returning to governing.
(The author is Taipei City Councilor)
