After the announcement of a series of industrial output, investment and retail data, analysts are pessimistic about the short -term prospects of China's economy.This article summarizes the preliminary feedback from analysts.
After a series of industrial output, investment and retail data were announced, analysts still have a pessimistic attitude towards the short -term prospects of China's economy.
According to data released on Thursday, the production growth of the factory was the lowest level in 17 years, and as an indicator for measuring household consumption, the growth of retail sales remained stable.The investment in fixed assets of infrastructure and machine expenditure increased by 6.1%, slightly higher than expected.
The following summarizes the preliminary feedback from analysts:
Capital Economics predicts that at least in the middle of this year, the growth of the world's second largest economy will continue to bear pressure.Senior Chinese economist Julian Bull;
In a good direction, the latest data will alleviate people's concerns about the rapid slowdown in the economy at the beginning of the year.But the prospects are still dim in the near future.In particular, the decline of the construction volume of the new house confirmed the signs of earlier, that is, developers have become more cautious, and the slowdown in housing construction is likely to drag the economic growth of the next few months.At the same time, the decline of infrastructure investment seems to show that fiscal relaxation is still difficult to form momentum.
Betty Wang, a senior economist of ANZ (ANZ), also agreed that it was unlikely a rebound in the short term, and emphasized that the credit risk brought by recent real estate investment.She said:
Despite the deterioration of the financing status of local developers, China's real estate investment has increased significantly.Therefore, we are still vigilant about the industry's short -term credit risks, but we are comfortable to the prospects of real estate investment throughout the year.
Analysts of HSBC (HSBC) said that the recent stimulus measures issued by the Chinese government should gradually work in the next few quarters:
In order to increase the directional easing policy of credit distribution of private sector, further reduce the deposit reserve ratio, strengthen infrastructure investment, and tax reduction policy, it should help promote investment in private sector and maintain economic recovery.We expect that the GDP growth rate will bottom out in the first quarter of 2019 and will rise in the next few quarters.
Investors will closely pay attention to the press conference held by Premier Li Keqiang on March 15th to seek further clarification of support measures that the government plans to take in the next few months.
Translator/He Li
