The long -term observer of the People's Bank of China generally feels this way: this is a central bank that does not want to communicate with the market too much.This image of the People's Bank of China has long been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. For such a cold image of the Central Bank of China, the market has long been explained that the central bank lacks the independence of monetary policy.He), so the People's Bank of China cannot speak on behalf of monetary policy.
Such a long -term image of the People's Bank of China has changed in the past few quarters.Macro analysts should have such a feeling. Whenever a data is introduced, the central bank is like the angle of your possibilities through various explanations like the tapeworm in your belly.What analysts can do are either follow the central bank's ideas (lack of added value) or deliberately facing the central bank to dry (may make directional errors).
For the market, the importance of analyzing monetary policy is self -evident, and the market analysts who have long immersed in the research of Chinese monetary policy for a long time have long established a series of analysis frameworks based on their own director. This is also an analyst.We depend on the rice bowl of the village.And now, the central bank's interpretation of the ocean has allowed macro analysts who have long been consistently visible to find out all discussions or even arguments about monetary policy within the central bank.Instead, they will laugh and laugh.
Of course, analysts can still analyze monetary policy based on their own positions and experiences. In fact, to some extent provide monetary policy feedback to the central bank.It is only compared with the past, and the federation from the central bank will come more quickly. Sometimes, although the feedback from the central bank cannot say a face, the 揶揄 in the text will not be absent.
In the recent monetary policy feedback incident, there are two interesting rounds. If you look back carefully, we will feel the central bank's humor. If we can understand such humor, macro analysts should also smile.
The first thing is the debate about bill financing.After the credit set in January, some market analysis pointed out that the increase in bill financing may mean the rise of arbitrage activities. A few days later, this topic was moved to the executive meeting of the State Council.The meaning of financing.The central bank immediately stated that the intention was that the bill financing may have arbitrage behavior, but the overall trend is good and supports the real economy.
The background of this controversy is actually the memory and concerns of the market for shadow banking activities.Silver ticket is a financial tool for banks to act as a credit intermediary role. In theory, company A and company B do business, but company B is not trusting company A, but company B trust bank A's bill issued, at the same time bank A trust companyA, willing to bear its credit risk to help them issue the bills. After the company B was received by the bill, it found the appropriate discounted interest rate (such as in bank B) for discounting and obtaining funds. This is the normal circulation process of a bill.
The bills are used for arbitrage, and it starts to rise after 2008 in China. A more important measurement indicator is the stock of not discounting notes in the market.How to understand this problem?As mentioned above, if the company B is discounted by the bank A's bill, it will become a short -term interbank loan of Bank B. Bank B undertakes bank A credit. After the bills expire, bank A pays bank B, and company A towards it.Bank A pays, so two silver goods.Therefore, under a normal financial system, the bills are relatively short in the short term. Everyone just uses the bills to conduct credit conduction.
However, if someone with the intention uses such a financial instrument to arbitrage, it will derive the situation of a sharp rise in unscaurned bills.There are several factors behind this worth mentioning. First, Bank A will obtain a deposit deposit (usually 50%of the value of the bill) from the company A when invoicing. The deposit scale of bank A has expanded.Second, after the company A is invoiced, you can actually choose a bank to discount and obtain more cash (about twice its deposit deposit).Third, the company A uses this cash to deposit the deposit to issue a larger amount of bills.Fourth, the company A handed the bill to the company B to pay the payment. In this way, the company A can use a relatively small amount to leverage the larger funds.
But behind such a process, there is a mystery that cannot let the bill disappear, because once the bill cannot be opened, then it is necessary to repay, so such a leverage game cannot continue.If you trace the history, we can clearly see such a process of credit crazy expansion and overdrawn. Before 2008, the unprecedented stock notes in the banking system were about 1 trillion yuan, but in 2013-1 In 2014, this scale rose rapidly to the magnitude of RMB 8 trillion.It seems that the increase in bill financing is closely related to the financial empty turntable.
So, does the increase in bills in January this year mean reappearing yesterday?From a static and historical perspective, we cannot rule out such possibilities.However, if you observe the data of the stock notes, we can get a slightly different conclusion that the stock notes will be about 4.19 trillion yuan at the end of January this year, and it will drop to 3.87 trillion in February.From this perspective, only monthly data, in fact, it is difficult to concludes the increase in arbitrage, but the market is often easy to believe in conspiracy theory.The central bank came out to explain, but I sincerely hope that the measures to stabilize economic growth will not be drowned and controversial.
At the two sessions, the President of the Central Bank of China Yi Gang further clarified this topic again.At the same time, Vice Pan Gongsheng added that among the numbers released in January, the number of bill financing has increased, mainly to support the real economy, especially SMEs, which has significantly reduced the cost through bill financing.Because the term of bill financing is relatively short, it is characterized by short term, high convenience, and strong liquidity, so it is generally an important financing channel for SMEs.Some time ago, the continued downward decline of bills and discounted interest rates, companies have increased their willingness to financing through bills.The question that this reporter just mentioned, we also did a wide range of investigations and full analysis. Regarding whether there is arbitrage behavior between bill financing and structural deposits, as President Yi just said, it may be just individual behavior, structured structure, structureThe space for sex deposit interest rates and bill financing interest rates is also very limited. It is not a common phenomenon, nor is it the main reason for the increase in bill financing.
This actually mentioned another question, that is, how SMEs obtain bank credit.Let's first consider the policy intention. China's current policy hopes to support more efforts to private and SMEs, but in the process of economic downside, commercial banks have not enough their willingness to issue loans for SMEs.Through bank bills, small and medium -sized enterprises may get short -term funds, which is in line with the risk preferences of commercial banks.At the same time, as mentioned above, due to the existence of long -term business relationships, the company A may be more trusted by Bank A, then it is possible for company A to get credit support from certain banks.Payment of payment, company B can be produced or purchased accordingly. In this process, the company A did not actually pay the funds. Instead, the credit guarantee of the bank A.Getting a certain degree of support is the true meaning of finance.
After talking about the above incident, let's take a look at another incident, that is, the topic of the RMB exchange rate in the Sino -US trade negotiations.Almost at the end of February, some international financial media reports say that China and the United States are drafting six related documents related to trade negotiations, one of which is about the exchange rate. Relevant reports say that China agrees to maintain the exchange rate stability.This report has attracted widespread attention, because the so -called stability and the background of China -US negotiations have made the market tend to think that China will be forced to appreciate the yuan to promote the achievement of trade agreements.What's more, the discussion on the reaching another square agreement between China and the United States has also begun to heat up.
This mentality of the market has brought the rapid appreciation of the renminbi. At the same time, the US dollar is also rapidly strengthening.At a critical moment of negotiations between China and the United States, Chinese officials seem to be unwilling (or not convenient) rightThis topic made a direct statement, which instead made the market feel that there was no silver here.As a result, making more RMB seems to be the best choice for the market.
However, the Central Bank of China cleverly chose a press conference during the two sessions to express this topic. President Yi Gang explained this issue in the questions of several reporters. First of all, he said that such a discussion did exist. This does exist. This does exist. This does exist. This does exist. This does exist. This does exist.It is indicated that the relevant reports are not groundless, but he also consciously proposed that the so -called stability is based on a multilateral cooperation framework. China can promise not to conduct competitive depreciation, but in addition, China still emphasizes the autonomy of monetary policy and the autonomy of monetary policy and the autonomy of monetary policy and the autonomy of monetary policy and the autonomy of monetary policy andPromote the market -oriented reform of exchange rate policies.
Observer who has been paying attention to the People's Bank of China for a long time should know that President Yi Gang's statement does not have much nutrition, which basically maintains his previous position.When the factors are intertwined, the renminbi has indeed been under pressure to depreciate in the past four years.In the author's impression, this is the pressure of depreciation of the RMB that the People's Bank of China rarely recognizes the existence of the RMB. He also said that the pressure on the depreciation of this depreciation of the Chinese currency is still tried to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.For this reason, in this process, Chinese foreign exchange reserves decreased by $ 1 trillion, that is to say, this effort can be seen very clearly all over the world. In the process of consulting with major trading partners, we also discussed by experts.There is obvious to this problem.
This statement actually shows such an attitude: China has the ability to maintain the basic stability of the exchange rate, but at the same time, under the current situation of depreciation of the RMB, if China needs to avoid the exchange rate depreciation, it will inevitably consume its own foreign exchange reserves.On the other hand, the market and the United States are also very clear. Most of the US dollar assets in China's foreign exchange reserves are invested in the US financial market. China consumes foreign reserves to defend the exchange rate, which is also a double -edged sword for the United States.From this perspective, the RMB exchange rate is a bilateral and multilateral topic, which is meaningless to discuss stability from China.Take a step back, even if the so -called agreement has been reached, from the perspective of the United States only requires stability rather than appreciating RMB, the market has risks in the unilateral perspective of the RMB.
The above two cases and discourse analysis, the central bank has explained the changes in monetary policy and operating logic to the market through more channels. Of course, the market has freedom to take criticism or catering to look at these expressions.But what is obviously different from the past is that the People's Bank of China has become more and more active. The stereotype of the market in the past is time to make some changes to the times.
Note: This article only represents the author's views
