Author: Cai Yuming
India and Pakistan have recently closed military conflicts, and each closed their lead and airports.This incident has become the most serious conflict between the two countries since 1971.Although the crisis of the two sides will not evolve into a nuclear war, it is enough to affect the future political situation in South Asia.
India and Pakistan signed a suspension agreement in 2003, and also signed a memorandum of understanding in 2018.Both the agreement and the memorandum mentioned that if any conflict between the two countries has arranged, they will take restrictions and authorize local commanders to use the existing hotline mechanisms and conferences to solve problems.However, the political dialogue between the two countries has stagnated, so that the two countries have not truly implemented the suspension agreement, and they also lack mechanisms such as resolving conflict specifications and procedures, non -military districts, neutral military observers and joint committees to reduce the one -sided violation of the ceasefire agreement.The possibility of possibilities is that in many conflicts, it can only depend on political will to reconcile, and political will often be difficult to stop the high nationalist emotions in China.
Kissinger mentioned in the book of nuclear weapons and foreign policies that there are basic rules for limited wars to set the relationship between military goals and political goals.In terms of theory, the political leadership needs to set the scope of a limited war. After the military air strikes and border artillery were conducted, India did not have follow -up military operations.The Indian Modern government should not want to worsen the situation to no rooms except the war.Therefore, after India implemented military air strikes, the best choice was to turn to Pakistan from diplomatic and economic.
Just after the terrorist attack, India immediately canceled the most beneficial treatment for the Pakistani country, and the tariffs from Pakistana increased to 200%, which also meant that India would stop any transaction behavior with Pakistan.Furthermore, India requested the Temporary List of Pakistan in the Special Financial Action Team to make it difficult for Pakistani to obtain international loans.
In order to fight against the compulsory policy from India, Pakistan chose international alliance methods to resolve conflicts.However, this international isolation policy is still limited. China uses the China -Pakistan Economic Cooperation Corridor to consolidate all -weather strategic partnerships. Pakistan also launched the Pakistani version of the Pakistani version of the Pakistani version of the Pakistani version of the Pakistani.The Prime Minister Emran Khan also sought assistance from Turkish President Aldo An. The United States needs to help from Pakistan because of the issue of peace talks with the Taliban, so that Washington is unwilling to make the situation in South Asia further in the case of no solution with North Korea.deterioration.
Emran Khan and his Pakistani Justice Movement (PTI) were supported by the military prime minister last year, and many of the Congress elections entered the parliament in the Congress election last year, which means that it is difficult for the Pakistani countryThe relationship, and PTI is unlikely to retreat from the Kashmir problem.However, the Pakistani government is also unwilling to increase the crisis. This situation will affect the promise commitment of Emran Khan to promote economic development.Imlan Khan actively returned the pilot captured by the Pakistani military and opened the airspace to try to change the international image to resolve the crisis. You can see that the Pakistani government formulated a corresponding strategy of active and depending on the opponent's response to the opponent's responseEssence
Nevertheless, it should not be ignored that South Asia's possible possible results should be.If the purpose of India is to cut off the close relationship between terrorist organizations in the terrorist organizations in the terrorist organizations in the country of Pakistan, it is unlikely to achieve this strategic goal by relying on air strikes.The support of the terrorist organization has always ignored the pressure from the international community and even the United States, and rarely responds to such condemnation. Instead, it will increase the internal anti -Indian emotions of Pakistan, or exacerbate terrorist attacks in India.
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