Author: Huang Renwei

Different differences: The coexistence of traditional and emerging powers today may not be war

The important characteristic of the current relations of great powers is that traditional and emerging powers coexist, and there has always been such a phenomenon in history.The new boss coexist and accommodates each other's precedent, which is often resolved through war, so the concept of Xunxidide trap has been produced.But today's background is different, so the ending will be very different.

As a new boss, China and the United States have multiple attributes, so there will be cooperation, conflict, and compromise

Similarly, when the new boss's coexistence in the world in history, the relationship between each other even determines the fate and history of the world.During the disintegration of ancient Greece, the Roman Empire, and the two modern world wars, such cases had occurred.The relationship between the Great Power between China and the United States today also has this effect.

But the difference is that today's great powers are multiple.As a traditional Western country, the United States is no longer a single nature of the past country MDash; MDASH; such as fascist countries, colonialism, and British Empires.At the same time, the United States is also a superpower, and its military power far exceeds the sum of other countries.

China is also multi -characteristic as an emerging country.The first is a non -Western country.Most of the non -Western powers were colonies, semi -colonials, or countries that were controlled, invaded and occupied by the West.On the contrary, China is a socialist country, not a capitalist government.Followed by the rise of the rise, it is also a major development country. Its per capita GDP is close to 10,000 US dollars. Although it is ten times higher than the reform and opening up in 1979, it is only one -fifth of the United States.

Because both large powers have multiple properties, the contradictions between contemporary emerging powers and traditional powers are different from historical contradictions. There are conflicts, contradictions, and cooperation and compromise.

Is the US strategy offensive or retreat?It is difficult to define.But China becomes its number one strategic opponent

Specifically, because the nature of the big country is many, it is difficult to clearly define the strategic characteristics he adopted, often multiple and complicated.Is the global strategy of the United States now offensive or retreat?There are different opinions of the domestic academic circles.Obama's Asia -Pacific re -balance strategy, it seems largely retreat, but it also includes an attack on China, which is retreating; Trump is essentially retreating, but he adopts a comprehensive blow to a comprehensive blow.Advance to retreat.

The two US presidents have different strategies, and it is difficult to judge who is retreating.The nature of the United States is many, so the strategy is also multiple.Now the biggest change in the entire strategic goal is that China has become the number one strategic opponent in the United States.

Is China's strategy or endogenous type or endogenous?It is difficult to conclude.But the internal structure needs to be improved is the first

From a large country to the world's second largest economy, China has risen from the region in East Asia to the world's major powers, and is the strategy of choosing a extension of going out?Or adhere to the endogenous type mainly based on internal development and reform?It is also difficult to conclude.

Why do you need to promote the construction of the Belt and Road Belt and why do Chinese companies go out?Because domestic resources are not enough to support the growth rate of more than 6%of the year of GDP. By 2050, if the per capita GDP cannot reach 40,000 US dollars, China will not be able to achieve the goal of the world's middle -developed countries.China ’s current GDP is about $ 13 trillion. The United States is $ 19 trillion. Because of its large volume, China has far exceeded the United States.Therefore, it is inevitable to go global. Whether it is steel, food, or oil, it is difficult to sustain only 9.6 million square kilometers of support.

China's strategic transformation is based on economic development and is determined by economic scale.In the process of going out, we exposed problems such as lack of knowledge, insufficient ability, and corporate violations.This shows that without the fundamental improvement of the internal structure and governance, the strategy of extension will be very difficult and the problem will be full.

As a large country, the strength of the United States is very balanced. It is strong in all areas of military, politics, culture, and technology. It is also strong in different economies in cities and rural areas in different regions such as east and west coasts.However, it is difficult for China to achieve regional balance and consistent urban and rural areas.We claim to be developing countries in the final analysis depending on the uneven development, and there will be many inherent contradictions in the middle.When some of our companies must go out, many people in the country are still complaining about what to do in Africa. In fact, as a company with the number one profit attribute, the profit obtained from Africa is much higher than the Mainland.

China will swing in two strategies of extension and endogenous in the future, and the duality, unevenness and complexity will continue to exist for a long time.

China and the United States Strategy Phase: Use the hooks of China and the United States and states to resolve the theory of deep and dark decisions

The multiple nature of the two major powers of China and the United States also brings strategic limitations, and the two sides will enter a considerable long strategic stalemate stage.

Limitations are prominently reflected in the gap between goals and means.Both sides have the phenomenon of insufficient heart and lack of power, thereby there, there are many contradictions in the diplomacy of large powers.Many of the advantages of the United States are basically shortcomings in China. For example, the United States ’scientific and technological advantages, cultural advantages, military advantages, and information advantages are not yet available and the gap between the United States is great.The current severe weaknesses in the United States, such as domineering, centrifugal, civil strife, hollow, huge debt, etc., are not too many in China, in turn, it is China's advantage.

The strategic advantages and disadvantages of the two major powers of China and the United States have made it difficult for a period of time. This is the stage of stalemate.This is the use of MDash; mdash; mdash; MDASH; China will not be able to win quickly, so the Anti -Japanese War must be a long -term war mdash;The phase -owned phase.Looking at Sino -US relations from this logic, the United States wants to curb China impossible, and China is impossible to superior to the United States.China will play the strategic advantages of the United States and China in the stalemate stage to avoid strengths and avoid weaknesses, and to win with virtue, showing China's strategic and cultural advantages.

The phase of China and the United States has just begun, but the decision -making circle, known as the Deep State of the United States; Mdash; although a few are the deepest part of the national machine Mdash; mdash;Describe.These decourse factions are determined to decide with China in several areas such as high -tech fields.At present, the global industrial chain, supply chain, and value chain have tightly tied China and the United States, and decoupling will be a huge disaster.It will become the Soviet Union in the Cold War, as the United States, becoming two groups, two camps, and then the New Cold War.However, it is not easy to be decoupled, which is equivalent to peeling the two largest economies in the world economy.Some time ago, the United States visited the Allies one after another to signal them to decide with China, but failed to work.

China's comprehensive national strength is rising, and now 5G technology is rapid, making the United States have to worry about its international status.In the case of Deep State in the United States, China must strengthen the core interests of the country with a firm back to ensure the national initiative, such as establishing deeper economic and trade relations with 50 states in the United States, and building China and the United States with deeper hooks to build China and the United StatesCommunity of interests.

New balance: In the future, the relationship between China and the United States leading the new power leaders lead the regional medium power

The current state of tension is a re -establishment of a balanced transition period. The difficult time for this period of stalemate will be about ten years. Since then, China and the United States will be established globally.

Reorganize China and the United States, the biggest advantages: the United States provides high -tech China, China provides a large US market

At present, some strategists in the United States have proposed to recognize and give new space in China because China's strength and the space they have obtained are not commensurate.

Just like Dean Jia just talked about why Britain and the United States did not have the struggle for new and old hegemony, because Britain has been giving a new space in the United States, and Britain and the United States are the same race, a culture and a system.The United States insists on curbing China, so it is necessaryGreat advantage re -combined.In fact, this time the Sino -US economic and trade consultation is to a large extent, which is a re -combination and re -balance of two advantages.If you understand the results of the consultation, many people may accept it.China ’s purchase of food and oil in the United States has increased the import of hundreds of billions of dollars, which is also the demand for the Chinese market itself.And China ’s trade surplus to the United States is more than 30 billion US dollars. If it is really reduced, the United States will supply enough chips and other high -tech products to China in order to achieve the annual deficit of 20%of the United States.EssenceIf China has enough markets to buy high -tech products in the United States, the US high -tech can have sufficient profits to support in -depth research and development, and support higher and more high -tech expansion. This is the re -balance of two major markets in China and the United States.

Other countries are looking for self -positioning in the China -US Re -balance system, and a group of medium -sized powers have emerged.

Other countries also try to find their own positioning in this process. All major powers in Sino -US relations are re -balanced, whether it is a country with a close relationship with the United States or a country where it is hostile.At the European Munich Security Conference held recently, the European Union and the United States publicly screamed; the current China -Russia strengthening cooperation is a checks and balance of the US hegemony; the East Asian economic cooperation based on China and Japan is continuously deepened;hellip; hellip; Since then, medium -sized power and regional strong powers will appear. At present, none of the major powers can contract all world affairs. Therefore, the new pattern will bring a division of labor.

In the future, one of the characteristics of the world's great powers is who provides more public products, such as: Belt and Road, anti -terrorism, climate governance, 5Ghellip; hellip;

In the phase of the future, the most important phenomenon is that the gap between the number of public products provided by the United States and the world needs is increasing. This part of the gap can be left to China to fill it.Based on the theory of hegemony in the United States, whoever provides more public products is the country of hegemony.In fact, the US retreat provided China with opportunities for peaceful rise.Belt and Road, climate governance, counter -terrorism and peacekeeping mechanism, network and artificial intelligence are new public products, and 5G is currently the largest public product.At present, China and the United States have presented two completely different ideas in the construction of world order: Trump advocates the United States first, and China advocates the community of human destiny.What is the future world order?We wait and see.

Therefore, I think that the relationship between new powers is direction, but the concept proposal does not mean that it can be realized immediately, it requires a longer construction time.The United States does not accept it, we can wait.According to the United States to reshape the world order first, he will eventually hit the wall everywhere.The key to the cooperation of great powers is that Sino -US cooperation. When the United States curbing China is too large and it is impossible to continue, he will choose to cooperate with China. After structural adjustment, the new large country balance will be established.