Liu Yuanju: When China changes from socks and shirts to selling machines, trade will fall into suspicion.This dilemma will exist in all high -tech products and services with black boxes in China.
At present, many countries' allegations against Huawei have become a major issue in international trade.Objectively speaking, there is indeed a lot of concern for Huawei's allegations.
First of all, the research and development of Huawei 5G can be done in the small black room.Huawei itself is already an international company. The founder of Huawei's 5G technology is the father of the 5G polarization code (Polar code) and Professor Alucca, Turk.Huawei 5G technology itself is the result of the cooperation of engineers of different nationalities in the world. Huawei has invested more than 500 million US dollars in the R & D of Canada in the past 10 years.Such a large -scale project involved in countless people during the conspiracy theory is as difficult as a conspiracy to hide the Chinese in the genetically modified gene.
Secondly, 5G technology is not completely irreversible.Just as the current chips can be worn layer by layer, and then reverse engineering under the microscope, 5G technology can be understood and monitored.Because of this, in fact, some foreign government's attitude towards Huawei 5G is not resolute.
Ciaran Martin, director of the National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) under the National Cyber Security Center (NCSC), said that although American intelligence agencies have proposed concerns about espionage and disturbHe believes that strict control and supervision can offset risks. He is confident that if ministerial officials have decided to let Huawei participate in the future 5G network, the British network security department can control any risk composed of this Chinese telecommunications equipment manufacturer.Essence
As the initiator of Huawei, the attitude of the United States is also changing.Recently, Trump issued a post in Twitter, calling on the US telecommunications industry to accelerate the development of 5G technology or even 6G, hoping to win through competition, rather than prevent more advanced technology.This statement was interpreted by the industry as the intention to let Huawei and Meng Wanzhou intend to release Huawei and Meng Wanzhou.Analysis of the British Financial Times pointed out that Trump seems to want to change the tough policy of blocking Huawei as a bargaining chip with China to increase the opportunity to reach a wide range of trade agreements between China and the United States.
But it is necessary to say that foreign government's doubts about Huawei 5G are understandable.
Android and Apple
Let's talk about the situation of Android in China.Due to its openness, the APP can read files and steal privacy. There is no technical obstacle.From an institutional point of view, Google Play has a review mechanism, but it cannot be used in Google Play in China. Other APP distributing stores are reviewed in shape, or there is no at all, and the Android APP can be downloaded from various channels.The vast power of various APPs in Android is essentially derived from the imperfect laws and law enforcement in China, and even from the Chinese people do not care about privacy mdash; mdash; although it will directly recruit severe criticism.Therefore, in China, there is almost no technical and institutional protection mechanism for Android machines.
In contrast, Apple is much better.First of all, there is a security system in the iOS system-sandbox mechanism. Each iOS application is isolated. Each app is an independent file system, and it can only be operated in its own file system.If you get the files under other applications, if you want to share the document between the apps, you need to use some systems provided by some systems.Second, the system of Apple mobile phones has always been known for being closed. Generally speaking, it can download the app from the Apple Store. Apple has strict reviews of each app that was launched in the Apple Store.
These technical thresholds and audit standards originated from consumers 'attention to privacy and the protection of consumers' privacy.It is equivalent to such a seal on Apple mobile phones. As long as you buy an Apple phone, you can get the protection of institutional seal.
System seal
In fact, Chinese consumers have long purchased this system seal.
The Chinese believe in domestic milk powder, and even imported milk powder encapsulated in China.For pure foreign milk powder, or go to foreign supermarkets to buy, or find purchasing, or buy milk powder packaged abroad in the supermarket.In fact, to some extent, what people want is the seal on the last milk powder packaging.This seal means that these milk powder is produced under strict laws and rigorous contract consciousness, which means seal of law, customs, and culture.Go to Hong Kong to buy milk powder, go to Denmark to buy milk powder, and buy milk powder in Germany, but you are buying a local food safety system.
Countless consumers voting with banknotes also forced enterprises to vote with their feet and accelerate overseas layout milk sources.In 2014, major infant milk powder manufacturers in China have gone abroad and built factories abroad.The reason why China's milk industry invests abroad, in addition to being close to raw materials and seeking high -quality milk sources, another motivation is to put capital under the stricter food safety system to obtain more trust in consumers, thereby gaining greater greater greater greater greater trustMarket and higher profits.
Another example is insurance.Insurance involves countless complicated and complicated laws, and requires a complete rule of law as a backing. At the same time, the rule of law also guarantees fair competition in the market and brings the best service to consumers.In this sense, insurance is also an institutional dense product.Numerous individuals in the market are always the most keen. Although they do not care about the system behind the product, they can quickly rush to high -quality products.Therefore, many mainland residents voted with their feet and went to Hong Kong to buy insurance.
Regardless of whether they buy foreign milk powder, insurance, or mobile phones, they buy the legal system behind them. All the institutional seals are bought and a series of institutional support behind them.
Black box products need institutional seal
Communication -related products also need this system seal.This is because communication products are like a black box.The so -called black box, to simply speaking, for example, the current machine learning, it is difficult for humans to trace the machine in the logic why the machine does so. The engineer can no longer open the black box and answer why Alpha Dog has played this step.Of course, the 5G system is understandable, traceable, and reverse engineering, but based on cost, there is still a certain black box.
Black box nature means that it may be used and controlled.The most famous example in this regard is the virus of the shock net.The United States used the uranium concentration equipment of Iran to attack Iran. The centrifugal machine that was implanted with the shock net virus was not damaged, but the efficiency was reduced, and Iran's nuclear project was eventually delayed.It is said that Americans use a U disk to implant the virus into the PLC of the centrifuge. The PLC refers to the programmable logic controller and is used in large -scale automation systems. It can be said that it is the core component in the modern automation system.These industrial equipment are like a black box.
Therefore, all equipment with the characteristics of black box needs to be trustworthy. Without mutual trust, it will affect trade.Clothing, shoes, shirts, socks, free trade rules can be achieved.However, high -performance computers, chips, mobile phones, digital machine tools, and communication systems are not enough to rely on free trade, but also requires democratic trade.
Because these products are closer to the heavy industry, or the information industry, such as databases, involve the production, social operations of a country, and citizen privacy, so more systems need to ensure transparency and mutual trust.Germany and Japan were all enemy countries in the United States during World War II. Democratic transformation completed mutual trust.Therefore, the United States can rest assured that the F35 is sold to Germany or deployed to Japan, which is equivalent to the cat's belly to each other.
Therefore, when China is no longer selling socks, shirts, shoes, but machine tools, mobile phones, and communication equipment, that is, when it moves from free trade to democratic trade, trade will fall into a suspicion.This dilemma exists in all high -tech, IT, information, heavy industry and other products with black boxes in China.This is a dilemma that must be overcome, because this involves the market support required by Chinese innovation.
<<" The own market cannot support the innovation cycleNow emphasizing its own technology, of course, Chinese people can have their own technology, but they cannot rely on their own market.
The general model of enterprise innovation is to sell mdash; mdash; profit mdash; mdash; R & D investment investment mdash; mdash; new product mdash; mdash; sales.This model has two meanings. First, innovation must be supported by profits.Huawei's R & D investment also stems from its previous profits in the global market.Second, the market size determines the scale of profit, thereby determining the circulation speed of innovation.Assume that the cost of the new CPU is 1 billion yuan. If you earn $ 10 per piece, then you can develop the next -generation CPU by selling 100 million CPUs.Then, companies occupying a larger market have a faster innovation cycle.If the market size is small, the cycle will be slower.Increasing the price is invalid. Assuming that one piece earns $ 100, the sales of 10 million yuan can also get 1 billion yuan. However, the sales speed will be slower and the innovation cycle will become slower.
This is the relationship between population and innovation.In fact, it is more accurate, not the population, but the relationship between market size and innovation.
There are many people with a per capita income of only 1,000 US dollars, but there are many people, but the purchasing power is very weak, and the speed of renewal is slower.The per capita GDP and the total scale determine the market size, which affects the innovation speed of the enterprise.The overall GDP is about $ 5 trillion in the United States and major Western countries, as well as neighboring countries.China's GDP is US $ 10 trillion, and Russia has other countries, and the GDP scale is also at $ 10 trillion.The ratio of 5: 1: 1 is roughly, and now the two 1 is not enough in the market.If the previous 5 is lost, Huawei's innovation cycle will slow down, and it will be caught up in the next generation of technology.
Obviously, if Huawei wants to maintain high -speed innovation, it is inseparable from the international market.Therefore, the current high -tech enterprises in China can have its own technology, but supporting its own technology research and development. It only rely on its own market that it does not work. There must be a global market to innovate a virtuous circle.It is worth mentioning that its own technology often means opaque for other countries.Full -time technology means that it is difficult to be difficult in the international market.
The goal of the country is to help enterprises
Tencent has been committed to internationalization, and many advertisements have been implanted in Hollywood movies. There are QQ implants in Spider -Man and Independence Day 2.For another example, Douyin is relatively successful, but its Chinese color is very light. Users do not know that this is a Chinese product.What if their opponents are promoting this?Therefore, these Chinese products need more space to show their transparency, and as a image as a whole, it will inevitably involve the right space of the entire enterprise at home and abroad.
To some extent, Huawei's statement implies that Huawei has this space.Now, under the heavy pressure, although Chinese folk public opinion is constantly adding Huawei to the hat of nationalism, Huawei's current attitude is still commercial.
Just as Huawei 5G may be banned by Canada and Meng Wanzhou may be extradited to the United States, Huawei Chairman Liang Hua visited Canada for the first time, claiming that even if the Canadian government banned Huawei from participating in the construction of the Canadian 5G communication system, Huawei would not give up Canada.Consumers, telecommunications companies, and universities in the country will continue to strengthen their R & D investment in Canada.He further stated that this behavior itself is also based on commercial considerations, because Canada has the characteristics of freedom and tolerance, and has strong advantages in artificial intelligence, basic algorithms and fiber.
Liang Hua also said that no power forced the company to create the so -called backdoor in the network.Huawei has never received any such requirements. If such a request occurs, Huawei will refuse.In addition, Ren Zhengfei said that the strong statement of this company can explain the problem to a certain extent.
However, in order to obtain the market, Huawei may need more system seal, just like Apple manufacturing itself, it is also impossible to break through the security chip, using this seal to seal itself, so as to obtain the foreign market.
One of the tasks of modern countries is to develop the economy and help enterprises to develop the market, thereby enhancing the country's innovation.This help often involves reforms pointing to the country itself.In fact, WTO is a series of reforms that help companies go out and point to themselves.Today, Chinese products have changed from socks, shirts to mobile phone and 5G communication systems.The country's help and support for enterprises have become more important. This kind of help, the same, not only includes more space for enterprises, so that enterprises can show freedom and transparency, but also inevitably point to the country's own deepening reform.
(This article only represents the author's own point of view, responsible editor: Yan Man [email protected])
