Expert: The US -China Dada Agreement still cannot prevent the global economy from slow

Economic Daily

The U.S. -China tariff war seems to be an agreement, but experts said that even so, the global economy that has been slowed down can not stop.

CNBC reported that US President Trump tweeted on the 24th that he would postpone the period for the tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1st. Previously, it would also sayThe manor and ... meet the agreement, the time point may be at the end of March.

The global stock market responded positively to Trump's remarks on the 25th, but experts pointed out that even if the tension of the top two economies in the world has slowed down, it still cannot stop the slowdown of the slowdown in the global economy.

Kateni, chief stock strategist of Yamato Securities, said: I think we need to take a step back to review the economic cycle.At present, it seems that the growth of the United States will slow down this year, and there may be a risk of recession as soon as 2020.

Kateni said that even if the US -China trade war and Brexit risks were solved, the global economy could not avoid decline.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is estimated that the global economy will grow by 3.5%this year in January, lower than 3.7%last year.

Collinwoyi, a global strategyist and research director of Jinying Securities, said that even if (the United States and China) reached a certain agreement, the global economic momentum may still deteriorate, at least before the next season.

Last year, the tariffs imposed by the United States and China have not been revoked. It is one of the reasons why strategists and analysts cannot express optimism to the latest positive development.The Chief Asian Economist at the Oxford Economic Research Institute pointed out in the report that there is no reason for excessive optimism, and we do not expect existing tariffs to be reduced in the short term.In addition, it is still unknown whether the United States' restrictions in the field of science and technology will be significantly reduced, and it is not clear whether it will change its position to Huawei.

Dutt, a professor of economics and political science at the School of European Business Administration, said the core of the United States and the key topic.The lack of progress means that global uncertainty will continue for a longer period of time. In the short term, it is basically China agreed to buy more (US) products, buy more big beans, and buy more natural gas.It is hoped that the United States can reduce some trade protection measures.

Dutt said that those really core and key issues, such as protecting the right to protect intelligence, the transfer of science and technology, and subsidies for the Chinese technology industry. This must be in mind.negotiation.