Author: Yin Yongkuan
South Korea's political turmoil in 2018 may be more than any country.In terms of democracy, the liberal government led by President Moon Jae -in, and as soon as he came to power, he started to deal with corruption that has been accumulated for a long time, and economically implemented a poverty alleviation policy of radical (and caused heated discussion), but these important reforms are all because ofDestroyer from overseas is ignored.
Few people expected that US President Trump will destroy the free international order after the war. South Korea has been based on economic and democratic development since the 1960s, but now it is threatened.Whether Pu is a temporary outsider, it will still bring permanent changes.
Trump threatened to end the terrible free trade agreement in April 2017. Until September last year signed the US -South -South Amendment of the trade agreement, many Koreans were relieved.However, the trade war between the Trump administration and China will inevitably hit South Korea economically.
A senior trading official warned: If a comprehensive trade war broke out, South Korea will be one of the deepest economies in the world, which happens to happen when the domestic economy slows down.If Wen Zaiyin cannot solve the problem of reduced work age and increase in social inequality, South Korea may eventually appear people like Trump.
Fortunately, the doubts of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula have been alleviated, and both the United States and South Korea are committed to finding a feasible nuclearization plan with North Korea to achieve permanent peace.From this point of view, 2018 is a very critical year. North Korean leader Kim Jong -un has responded to Wen Zaiyin's proposal and opened the road of turning from crisis to diplomatic.Political wrist.
Since taking office, Wen Zaiyin has been open -minded with Dominee's dialogue, which eventually promotes the dialogue between the two Koreas. For the first time, Kim Jong -un revealed to South Korea's special envoy, hoping to meet Trump for discussion.After that, Kim Jong -un also revealed that he was willing to give up nuclear weapons and the economy to enter the route, and focused on economic development.
After three rounds of the two Korean summits, Wen and Jin signed a joint declaration of Pyongyang on September 19 last year, promising to make the Korean Peninsula a peaceful place without nuclear weapons and nuclear threats. North Korea promised to demolish the missile testing field and launch platformThe two sides also agreed to expand military hostility in conflict areas.This joint declaration is a major progress that reduces the possibility of conventional military conflicts, and this conflict is actually more likely to explode than nuclear war.
On the other hand, after the historic Special Championship on June 12 last year, the United States and North Korea reached a four -point agreement to show the people's desire for peace and prosperity.Although this statement symbolizes the major shift of US diplomacy, it is criticized for lack of time schedule and details of non -nuclearization.In order to solve these problems, US Secretary of State Pompeo continued to meet North Korean officials and visited Pyongyang four times within a year.However, because North Korea has never had specific actions and turned into empty talks, many experts and observers have skepticized the progress of Pompeo.
No one is not sure about the next development.Looking forward to 2019, many things depend on the willingness of the US government to treat the Golden regime pragmatic.The threat of North Korea, which resolves nuclear, depends on both deterrence and Huairou.An isolated small country that has been served by the powers and has a lot of economy will have a sense of insecurity anyway.
Therefore, Kim Jong -un must be willing to abandon nuclear weapons without confirming that there is no nuclear weapon.Although the U.S. government knows this heart, it has no practical actions, and whether the Trump administration can get enough support to promote procedures in Congress needs to be observed.
For example, the United States may consider the declaration of peace and end the Korean Peninsula war.In addition, the United States may also set up a liaison office in Pyongyang or continue to provide humanitarian assistance (outside the scope of economic sanctions).The United States may also invite North Korean athletes, musicians, etc. to conduct cultural exchanges, allow Korean students to study in the West and allow them to accept free democracy and free economic environment.These countermeasures will not affect economic sanctions on North Korea, and can continue the Golden regime while de -checking.
Kim Jong -un has allowed Wen Zaiyin to speak to the 150,000 Korean people and decide to visit Shouho unprecedentedly, and invite the pope to Pyongyang.This shows that he may want to be a North Korean Deng Xiaoping.
The reason why Deng Xiaoping can focus on developing the economy is because the US diplomacy has created a favorable external environment for China.If Kim Jong -un really intends to let North Korea develop into a normal country and the 21st century economy, even if he wants to be slim, the international community should not hinder him to walk towards this way.This is really the case.2019 will be a year for the Korean Peninsula to be nuclear and peaceful.
(Author Yin Yongkuan is former South Korean Foreign Minister, Project Syndicate columnist/compilation Yu Xiaohui)
