Chinas economic slowdown is not just a Sino -US trade war

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

Since the start of the Sino -US trade war, some experts and scholars believe that China's economic situation will be greatly affected and attracted the attention of the media.As a result, when China officially announced the economic growth rate of 2018 to 6.6%at the end of January, after a new low since 1990, many experts and the media directly blamed the China -US trade war directly on the China -US trade war.Chinese exports have slowed down, corporate investment and consumer confidence weaken.After all, under the impact of only 1989 and then international sanctions in the past 30 years, the economic growth rate has fallen sharply (4.2%and 3.9%from 1989, 1990), and the average growth rate of more than 10%from 1990 to 2010, even if even 10%, evenDuring the financial tsunami from 2008 to 2009, the economic growth rate can also be supported at 9%.

However, it is not difficult to find that China ’s economic data is carefully examined carefully. It is too far -fetched to slow down China's economic growth in 2018.

First of all, in terms of exports, the US economy performed strongly in 2018, which greatly increased China's exports to the United States by 11.3%to $ 478.4 billion.The crown of the country, and has brushed a new high record for 2 consecutive years.Coupled with the expectations of tariffs, Chinese exporters are anxious to ship before the U.S. trade restrictions are taken into effect, and a large number of export orders are grabbed, which has also driven China's exports to the United States to increase greatly.Therefore, several people pointed out that the poor economic performance of China in 2018 was caused by the US tariff barriers, and it was not true.

Secondly, although the annual growth rate of China's fixed asset investment in 2018 fell to 5.9%, a new low since 2000, it was mainly affected by infrastructure investment from 19%in 2017 to 3.8%.The annual growth rate is still as high as 9.5%, which has reached a new high in the past three years. It is obvious that the trade war has led to the decline in confidence in Chinese enterprises and the sharp slowdown in investment, and there is not enough persuasiveness to impact the overall economy.

So, what is the main cause of China's economic performance in 2018?The aforementioned investment in infrastructure has fallen sharply, and the rapid decline in substantive consumption is actually the two key. It has not been related to supporting economic growth with China's long -term credit expansion in China in the past for a long time.

As we all know, after the outbreak of the financial tsunami in 2008, China launched a 4 trillion investment plan to rescue the market in November of that year, supporting the economic growth in 2009 to reach 9.1%again, and immediately became an important force that stabilized the global economy.Unexpectedly, the European debt crisis followed, causing the global economy, which is still fragile, and stagnation.The major central banks led by the United States have successively launched a quantitative easing policy, which has led to a large amount of hot money into China that has poured into the economy to maintain a high degree of economic growth, bringing a huge bitter fruit with economic structure distortion, large production capacity of manufacturing, and the rapid accumulation of debt leverage.

According to data from the International Clearance Bank (BIS), the total debt of China's non -financial system has climbed from 141.4%at the end of 2008 to 241.4%at the end of 2016.Although under the official deleveraging policy in 2017, the total debt has increased significantly to GDP compared to no longer, but because of the Chinese government's shots to combat private shadow banks such as online lending platforms (P2P), the total debt of non -financial systems to GDP is compared to 2018 to 2018.At the end of the second quarter, it rose to 253.1%again.At the same time, after 2008, China's family debt rose rapidly. By the end of the second quarter of 2018, it reached $ 6.58 trillion, a ratio of 50.3%to the GDP, much higher than 18.6%in 2008. The housing market foam expanded significantly.

In order to avoid the systematic debt crisis of China's explosion, ... After being re -elected as the President of the State and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, it also established the three major attacks of 2018 to 2020 (prevention and resolution of major risks, precision poverty alleviation, pollution prevention), and will be.Risk -proof and deleveraging are listed as the primary goal.Under this policy policy, in 2018, the Chinese Central Government has slowed the growth of infrastructure investment to 3.8%, which is a level with an average annual growth rate of 20.4%from 2014 to 2017.And the urgency of promoting deleveraging.

The problem is that for China, the housing market bubble and leverage can not be expanded, but it must avoid the collapse of housing prices to explode the Chinese version of the housing market storm and endanger social stability.The China City Family Wealth Health Report jointly released by Guangfa Bank and Southwest University of Finance and Economics in January this year shows that 77.7%of Chinese household asset allocation is concentrated in real estate, far higher than 34.6%of American families, representing the economic costs paid by the collapse of the Chinese housing market.It will be much higher than Western countries.Therefore, China does not stir -fry housing, and house prices do not rise as guidelines for the housing market regulation and control policy. Economic growth has slowed down. Excessive mortgage pressure will naturally have a crowded effect on private consumption.one.

In other words, China's economy has slowed significantly in 2018, which is not the accident of the Sino -US trade war, but the inevitable long -term credit expansion policy.What is even more troublesome is that the Sino -US trade negotiations that are currently undergoing are always posted on the financial market, but for the pragmatic America, it is easy to restrain China (tariffs), and the effect is effective, and the effect is effective.After it is quite good, how can I give up lightly?In the foreseeable future, the two sides can talk about a little consensus. At most, the United States has slightly reduced the tariff rate increased by last year as a dividend of negotiations, but it is unlikely to completely relieve the tariff shackles of China.The negative impact of the Sino -US trade war on the Chinese economy is afraid that it will not be reflected in 2019.In addition, the Chinese government continues to promote the three major attacks. Under the intended to dismantle the huge debt mines, consumption and investment will also slow down, leading to the shrinking profit of the enterprise and further lowering the willingness of private investment.It can be seen that in 2019, China faces internal and foreign and foreign -to -law's challenges, and all walks of life should pay close attention to the relevant situation development.