In recent years, the US National Security Report has publicly listed China as the main opponent of the United States.(Photo file)
After World War II, the United States has always been the most powerful country in the world.In recent decades, with the rise of China, the United States is full of crisis theory of various American decline and China challenging the United States.But is there a crisis in the United States?In fact, the United States can be said to be the least crisis than countries around the world.Economically, the United States still has the world's largest market, the most advanced technology and its largest technological innovation capabilities.In addition, the United States still has an unparalleled US dollar hegemony.Because of these, few developed economies can leave the US economy.
In terms of military, the United States is still the first, and no country's military strength can compete with the United States.It is very clear to see the annual military budget of the United States every year.Politically, the United States has indeed encountered great difficulties over the years. It is mainly the political division of the party. The opposition party opposes it in order to oppose it. The two parties veto each other, which greatly affects the efficiency of the government's operation.However, Americans should be fortunate because the US political system is still sound.President Trump is so destructive, and he is paired everywhere, but the result is not the case.To a large extent, the United States has a powerful society, and society can still operate on its own without the government's inaction.Tocoville has fully seen this phenomenon in American democracy, and today the situation of a strong society is still the same.
But on the other hand, since it is involved in world affairs and becomes the unique leader of the world, the United States has been full of sense of crisis.After World War II, the United States and the Soviet Group struggle, no matter what the name is, including ideology, political system, military expansion, etc., I have always regarded the Soviet Union as the biggest threat of the United States.The threat (enemy) struggle won.
However, the threat of the United States is obviously not limited to a country that publicly claims to be the enemy of the United States, as well as the United States allies.After the 1980s, with the rise of Germany and Japan, the United States felt that the manufacturing industry in Germany and Japan threatened the United States and did not hesitate to trade with Germany and Japan.Although these two countries are allies in the United States, the United States fights with them and is merciless, and can be used in any way.In the end, the United States also won in this struggle with the allies.
Now the United States has turned to China.In recent years, the US National Security Report has publicly listed China and Russia as the main opponents of the United States.However, for Americans, Russia at best is just a troublemaker, because Russia today is no longer the Soviet and Soviet groups in the past, and Russia's total economy is only Guangdong Province.Therefore, the real threat comes from China.Over the years, the prevailing trap in the United States mainly refers to Sino -US relations. The discussion of various Sino -US war is full of the American discourse market.
But has China really pose a threat to the United States?Obviously not.Economically, although China's total economy is very large (and it will catch up with or even surpass the United States for a long time), as far as the per capita national income, China is less than one -fifth of the United States.Comparing the various economic data of China and the United States, in most aspects, there is no evidence that China has pose a threat to the United States.The economic competitiveness of the United States is not only compared with China, but also the United States is also leading the United States worldwide.
Don't say anything else here, just take the economic competitiveness enough to explain the problem.According to the recent reports of the Nikkei News, about 40%of the global net profit in 2018 was created by American companies, while US companies' net profit increased to 3.8 times during 10 years.The sales of global companies in 2018 were $ 35 trillion, an increase of 19%over 10 years ago, and net profit increased by 2.5 times to $ 2.8 trillion.
From the perspective of net profit, American companies have performed the best. 10 years ago, the United States' global share accounted for 25%, and now it has increased significantly to 39%.Today, the industry that supports the growth of the United States has converted from physical industries such as manufacturing and retail to transform into knowledge -intensive industries.This can be seen by investigating the assets held by American companies that intangible assets such as patents and trademark rights representing technical strength and brand influence reached $ 4.4 trillion, which was more than twice that of more than 10 years ago.
In the past few decades of globalization, the United States has been the country with the greatest benefit.The problem of the United States is not a problem of interests, but the problem of internal interest distribution; that is, the benefits obtained worldwide have not solved the distribution between the internal social classes.The prevailing economic nationalism and trade protectionism in the United States today is just that the US government has transformed internal problems into an external crisis.
As far as political systems are concerned, China has indeed developed its own institutional system.Past experience shows that this system has huge changes to adapt to the new environment without changes in the direction that the United States wants.Because of the success of all aspects, especially economic success, this system has attracted and influence on some developing countries, but it has no impact on the US and Western systems.In addition, China does not sell its own political model like the former Soviet Union, not only emphasizing the input mode that is not simple, but also emphasizing not to simply output mode.The United States says that China's political system poses a threat to the world, obviously exaggerating its words.
Even in terms of security, the Pentagon has continuously exaggerated the so -called Chinese military threat for selfish interests to make a larger national defense budget.Although both China and the United States continue to develop military for their own security, it is difficult to imagine the hot war between China and the United States in this era of deterrent nuclear weapons.Even within the United States, military research experts are aware of the huge gap between the military modernization of China and the United States.
Where is the sense of crisis come from
Why does the United States have such a strong sense of crisis?In other words, where is the sense of crisis?At least the following aspects can be discussed.
First, the sense of mission in the United States.Culturally, the United States is a country with a strong sense of mission. It is manifested in religious culture, but also in political value and ideology, and religion and political ideology are strengthened.Since the United States involved in world affairs, no country, like the United States, has spent such huge people who sell their politics, economy, society, culture, etc. to all parts of the world.Once you encounter external resistance, you will feel frustrated, which is also a sense of crisis.
Second, the sense of conquest in the United States.Instead of the sense of mission, the United States has become more and more conquerful after winning the victory of the independent war.The 1890s became the world's largest economy.Before that, it was a period of isolation in the United States.But isolation is a big misunderstanding, because the United States focused on expansion and conquest in the Americas before the 1890s, and Americans drove Europeans out of the Americas, claiming that America was the American America.This sense of conquest is also manifested in all aspects of internal aspects, including the development of the west and progressing society.During World War I, the United States began to be involved in world affairs, and then expanded its sphere of influence to the entire world by continuous conquest.
Third, hegemony itself has the sense of crisis.After the Cold War, the United States became the unique hegemony in the world.However, the sense of crisis of the hegemony will always feel that its own hegemony position will be replaced by other countries.Looking for this other country, it has become the focus of US foreign policy.Naturally, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China has become a definition of other countries in the United States.The above -mentioned trap of Xiu Xidid is not unreasonable in the United States in recent years.To put it bluntly, this is a manifestation of American crisis awareness. Fourth, maintain the sense of crisis brought by the highest end of the economic power.This is related to the above -mentioned US hegemony, but there is a difference.If the concerns of hegemony have more subjective components, the changes in economic power are real.The United States is the most global economy in the world, and its economic influence has penetrated into every corner of the world.In this process, the United States also knows the world's economic situation best.Once you discover which country's economic field constitutes competitiveness in the United States or is likely to constitute competitiveness, the United States will have a sense of crisis and will surpass or curb.This is the trade war to Germany, Japan and other countries.Today, the focus of the United States is to control the head of the world economy, that is, the knowledge and smart economy. It is not difficult to understand the core of this trade war with China, which is intellectual property rights and technology.
Fifth, effectively convert the sense of false threats into a sense of crisis.Generally speaking, it is difficult to have a sense of crisis from the outside world, but the United States is the exception.In terms of experience, the United States is very good at using external threats to transform external threats into its own sense of crisis.Since the Second World War, the United States and the Soviet Union have comprehensive competition, but the performance of the two countries is different. The Soviet Union has desperately exaggerated its achievements, while the United States has desperately exaggerated the threat it faces.Different performances are the inevitable products of the two political systems, because the Soviet Union must obtain political legitimacy by exaggerating achievements, and the American media is not in the hands of the government.Essence
Regardless of the exaggerated propaganda of the Soviet Union or the over -negative reports of the US media, they are in line with the interests of the US government and the vested interest groups.In fact, the effective use of the Soviet Union's exaggerated achievements not only caused a sense of unity between the social classes of the United States, but also consolidated the sense of unity between the United States and its allies.To a large extent, the relationship between China and the United States today is very similar to the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union.Obviously, although as mentioned above, all aspects of China have not threatened to the United States in all aspects, the United States has already effectively used excessive publicity in some aspects of China and transformed this into a sense of crisis in the United States itself.In recent years, the sense of threat and crisis from China has unprecedented sense of threats and crisis from China.
Crisis difference between China and the United States
If the United States is a society -driven society, then China can be said to be a crisis -driven society.The crisis difference between the two countries is huge.Compared with other countries, China may be the least crisis.Without a sense of crisis, there are many reasons.China is a secular culture. No matter at the national or social individual level, everyone is safe and the status quo. Many people have lived.Chinese culture only has the concept of changing, but has never had progress.The changes and progress are different. The former is adapted to the external environment, and the latter is to change the environment.For example, there are many technical inventions in Chinese history, but this invention does not pay attention to all parties.Furthermore, it is a invention that is valued, and Chinese society also uses this for life, not to make improvements in various aspects.
Therefore, gunpowder is used to put fireworks, and the compass is used to see Feng Shui.To a certain extent, this phenomenon still has no fundamental changes to a certain extent.For example, Americans use Internet technology to conquer space, and many people in China use the Internet for life (takeaway, online shopping, etc.).Furthermore, for most Chinese society, even at the level of life, as long as you live, there is no motivation to toss.
China's country is large and the ability to digest crisis is also strong. Generally, the small crisis cannot affect the entire country.Because the individual crisis does not affect the entire country, it will not be valued, and let it exist and develop until it evolves into a big crisis.
In addition, compared with the United States, China often does not have a mechanism to effectively express the sense of crisis.Americans are the most unbearable. Once they feel the crisis, they are expressed. It has become a true sense of crisis through the publicity and exaggeration through media and other aspects.Chinese society has a strong tolerance. Everyone does not express the sense of crisis, and has no expression of the real crisis, but is curbed, whether it is active or passive.Conversely as the United States, for the Chinese media, news is not positive.
But because there is no sense of crisis, it is most likely to have a big crisis.It is said that in China, there is no change without crisis, small crisis and small changes, and the crisis changes greatly.This aspect shows the toughness of Chinese society, but it also shows the fatal weakness of Chinese society.It was not until the crisis came that people responded, but it was too late because the damage caused by the big crisis to the overall society was huge.Although the crisis is also an opportunity as people say, the cost brought by this opportunity is too great.
A question is raised here, that is, can China transform from a crisis -driven society into a crisis -driven society?If you want to avoid the huge costs brought by the big crisis and its crisis, it is worth doing this transformation, although the difficulty of transformation can also be expected.
(The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
