Source: Reuters Chinese Network
Author: Shen Yan
China ’s GDP growth rate in 2018 has achieved scheduled targets at the beginning of the year, but the downlink pressure does not decrease, and the lack of vitality of the micro -subject economy is an important reason.In this regard, Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the National Information Center of China, believes that the key is to clarify the protection system of property rights and ensure that private property is guaranteed, so that the investment enthusiasm and entrepreneurial motivation of small and micro and private enterprises can be stimulated.
In an interview with Reuters, he said that since 2016, China's supply -side structural reform has achieved staged results. Last year, the pace of structural deleveraging continued to accelerate. While the economy was running steadily, it also had increased difficulties in private enterprises, and infrastructure investment fell too fast., Increase real estate bubbles and other issues.
After the trade friction between China and the United States, foreign trade, using foreign investment, and scientific and technological cooperation were affected. Deep -seated problems such as weak scientific and technological innovation capabilities, weak industrial chain and supply chain fragile began to expose.These issues are overlapping and affecting each other, which has led to the continuous accumulation of financial risks and increased economic downward pressure.
This year's economic downward pressure is still very large, and the way out is to accelerate reform, especially to strengthen the construction of the system and mechanism.Deepen the reform of state -owned enterprises, financial, tax finance, land, market access, social management and other fields, strengthen the basic position of competitive policies, create a fair and competitive institutional environment, and encourage small and medium -sized enterprises to accelerate growth.I wish Baoliang said.
He believes that promoting supply -side structured reforms are a medium and long -term task. This year, we must work hard on consolidating, enhancing, enhancing, and unblocking eight words.It is necessary to consolidate the results of the Sanxin, one drop and one supplement, promote more overcapacity industries to accelerate the clearing, reduce the cost of various business costs in the society, and increase the shortcomings in the fields of infrastructure.
It is necessary to enhance the vitality of the micro -subject, give full play to the initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs, establish a fair, open and transparent market rules and the business environment of the rule of law, and promote positive incentives and survival of the fittest.Zhu Baoliang said that if there is no active microeconomic, macro -control and counter -cycle regulation will not be able to talk about it.
He also suggested that the target of economic growth in 2019 is more than 6%, the price increase is controlled at about 3%, and the new employment is added.
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year clarified the main tasks of this year, and will continue to implement positive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies to further stabilize employment, stable finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations, and boost market confidence in market confidenceKeep your economy in a reasonable range.
China will determine the economic growth goals this year during the National People's Congress and the CPPCC held in March.The industry is generally expected that China's GDP growth target will be 6-6.5%this year, and the CPI increase target will be 3%; the deficit rate will expand. Earlier, some media said that China's deficit this year is 2.8%.
Under the internal and external problems, China ’s GDP (GDP in China) in 2018 hit a new low of 6.6%, which was a 28 -year low, of which four quarters were decreased step by step, and the growth rate of 6.4%in the fourth quarter was nearly 10 years.It is difficult to avoid the weakness of China's economic decline in both inside and outside. It is expected to continue to find it in the first half of 2019.
The economy is facing large downward pressure
Zhu Baoliang's analysis pointed out that China is in the stage of turning from a high -speed growth stage to a high -quality development stage, and it is imperative for economic structure adjustment and transformation.In this process, it is inevitable that some enterprises that have excessive expansion in traditional industries are inevitable, and it is also a normal market clearing process; supply -side structural reforms since 2016 are to solve this problem.
However, we must also see that the prices of steel, coal, non -ferrous, building materials have risen significantly, and measures such as debt -to -equity swaps and divestitudes of non -performing assets have brought about a decline in leverage of state -owned enterprises.After deleveraging, financing is difficult to financing, one -size -fits knife -cut environmental protection governance, export expectations decline, and consumer structure upgrades and other factors are squeezed. The profit growth is slow, and the asset -liability ratio will not decrease.
He also mentioned that in April last year, financial supervision policies such as regulating the asset management business of financial institutions were officially introduced, off -balance sheet financing was suppressed, and the risk preferences of financial institutions were significantly reduced.The stock market plummeted and the bond market declined, some enterprises broke the capital chain and a credit defaults, and the equity pledge of some listed companies was forced to close the position.
At the same time, the statement of negating the private economy also appeared from time to time, which seriously affected the confidence and social expectations of the enterprise, and exacerbated the difficulty of operating private enterprises.
Although the dilemma of China's private economy has always existed, compared to the so -called LSquo; glass doors rsquo; lsquo; spring door rsquo; business environment and other difficulties encountered by private enterprises. This time, it is more manifested in private entrepreneurs.In terms of confidence, and the uncertainty of the outer environment is increasing, it has made private investment insufficient enthusiasm.Zhu Baoliang said.
In addition, the harm of real estate bubbles is increasing.Under the constraints of the land finance and land system, China's real estate regulation has always been a heavy demand, light supply, and even artificially restricting supply to raise land prices and house prices.At the same time, in order to encourage real estate destocking, since 2016, the state has adopted the monetization resettlement policy of shantytowns to encourage residents to increase mortgage loans. The leverage rate of residents has risen rapidly, leading to continuous rise in real estate prices, especially third- and fourth -tier cities.
The continued popularity of real estate has stimulated economic growth and increased fiscal revenue, but greatly pushed the production and operation costs of the real economy, increased the leverage of residents, exacerbated the inequality distribution of property and income, squeezed out consumption and manufacturing investment, affectingThe industrial structure upgrade and the sustainable economic development.
He pointed out that since 2016, residents' mortgage loans, resident leverage rates, and residential consumption indicators have increased the negative impact of rising real estate prices on economic development and financial stability.Since 2018, the main reason for the decline in automobile consumption is that residents 'credit growth in third- and fourth -tier cities has grown too fast and housing prices have risen out of residents' consumption.
Sino -US trade friction has a large uncertainty
Zhu Baoliang also said that the disposal of local hidden debt and stable infrastructure investment dilemma.Driven by the steady growth and Huimin livelihood, many local governments rely on local governments' financing platform, government and social capital cooperation (PPP), industrial investment funds and other channels.Large -scale financing is used for infrastructure investment, and the number of government debt is considerable.Local fiscal revenue that supports debt repayment also has false problems, and the debt rate and debt rate of local governments are underestimated.
After early 2018, the hidden debt of local governments was used as a key task of deleveraging, and the financing platform financing platform of local government was restricted, and infrastructure construction investment began to decline.How to deal with hidden debts of local governments and the source of infrastructure investment funds have become one of the difficult problems for many years.
In addition, Sino -US trade friction is uncertain.Sino -US economic and trade friction involves many issues such as bilateral trade, intellectual property protection, subsidies, market access, and state -owned enterprises.From the perspective of bilateral trade, the impact of tariffs on China's economy does not have a great impact; but in the long run, problems such as trade friction, intellectual property protection, market access, subsidies, etc. will affect bilateral trade, investment, technical transfer, and personnel exchanges, and then thenIt affects China's technological innovation capabilities and industrial chain and supply chain security.
In the 40 years of reform and opening up, through the technological spillover effect of foreign trade, using foreign capital, and scientific and technological exchanges, the contribution to China's economic growth is about 0.8 percentage points each year. The impact of Sino -US economic and trade friction on my country's scientific and technological progress and industrial chain and value chain improvement. Do not underestimate.I wish Baoliang said.
Senior U.S. officials arrived in Beijing on Tuesday. China and the United States are about to hold high -level trade consultations. The world's largest economies try to finalize an agreement before the last period of March 1 to avoid raising tariffs again.US President Trump said on Tuesday that he may have delayed the last period of March 1st on the March 1st of the trade agreement with China, but did not want to do so, and hoped to meet with the Chinese President at some time ...To reach an agreement.
For the Chinese economyThe contradictions and problems, Zhu Baoliang believes that the Economic Work Conference at the end of last year has clarified this year's main work. The focus is to implement it and do a good job in responding to the fiscal policy plan that has caused economic decline and increasing unemployment in response to Sino -US economic and trade frictions.
He also suggested that a stable monetary policy must be tight and moderate to maintain reasonable liquidity. The growth rate of the general currency M2 and the total amount of social financing can increase to the level with the target of the expected growth of the economic expectations;The proportion of direct financing solves the problem of expensive financing of private and small and micro enterprises; and maintains the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, strengthen capital control, and ensure the independence of monetary policy.
In 2019, the external environment facing my country's economic development has deteriorated compared with 2018, and economic growth will slow down.At the same time, the effect of supply -side structural reforms on the stable economy will continue to appear, encouraging private enterprises to develop and deepen the signal of reform and opening up will help stabilize the confidence of enterprises.Zhu Baoliang said.
