In mid -January, the U.S. President Trump and the special envoy of North Korean leader Kim Youngzhe 90 minutes after meeting in the White House, the U.S. government announced that the second special money would be held in late February.
There is no doubt that this is a positive signal worthy of welcome.In June 2018, the Singapore Summit witnessed Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong -un achieved its first historic talks. In the past year, the situation on the Korean Peninsula was alleviated compared to the obvious tension in 2017.The key is what will happen to the second time.
The joint statement of the Singapore's Meituo Summit is very short, but there are two sentences that the two sides are promised by the key principles of the future summit and the tone under the tone.The first sentence is that Trump and Kim Jong -un have extensively exchanged for the establishment of a new relationship between the United States and North Korea and the establishment of a permanent and powerful peace mechanism of the Korean Peninsula.
Secondly, Trump promised to give the North Korean People's Democratic Republic security guarantee, and Kim Jong -un once again confirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.Since the second summit is to be held, the two sides must want to maximize the specificization of the promise in accordance with their own interests, and there is a gap between the expectations between North Korea and the United States in this process.
First of all, North Korea's concern is the problem of normalization of US -DPRK relations.At the second summit, Kim Jong -un is even more interested in what specific security commitments Trump will give.He has reiterated the determination of non -nuclearization on many occasions such as visiting China and the New Year's word, but also clearly mentioned the conditions, that is, this needs to be based on the United States ending to North Korea's hostility synchronization.
Last year, North Korea returned some of the US military's bones in the North Korean War in accordance with a joint statement, but North Korea believed that the United States did not show goodwill simultaneously.North Korea ’s expectations and logic are the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and North Korea.
In contrast to this, the United States' consistent priority option is placed in North Korea ’s thorough and tested and irreversible nucleus, and the normalization of US -DPRK relations can only be carried out.Trump seems to be more willing to consider Kim Jong -un's above -mentioned line.This may also be that North Korea treats the US -DPRK's negotiations so seriously this time, and based on North Korea's different judgment on Trump and the previous US president.
However, the mainstream views of diplomatic and military elites formed by the United States for a long time are still the normalization of unpaid relationships before.Washington's hardliners, officials, and think tank experts can find countless reasons. When the negotiations between North Korea and the United States encounters setbacks, they come out to intervene, which will affect the momentum and process of negotiations.The Second Special Champion was unable to be held last year, and some of the reasons was that it was difficult to achieve the internal consensus of the United States.
According to the above analysis, the Second Special Government needs to achieve specific visible results on the one hand, and at the same time, it is necessary to control the gap between the above expectations of the United States and North Korea.How to make the US North Korea aware of the final solution of the North Korean nuclear issue takes a long time? The key is that the process of the US -DPRK dialogue must persist.The dialogue process is still fragile, and the role of China and South Korea is quite critical.
First of all, as a direct neighbor of North Korea, China and South Korea have the same goal of the nuclear issue of the peninsula, that is, the establishment of a permanent peace mechanism for the Korean Peninsula.South Korean President Moon Jae -in once said that the peninsula -no -nuclearization and establishment permanent peace mechanism are historical figures that historic figures cannot give up or delay.This idea is actually the two -track method of Chinese President ... The Singapore Summit also basically follows this spirit.
In the US -North Korea negotiations, the role of China is to give North Korea a psychological feelings when direct negotiations in North Korea and the United States, which will help North Korea not easily make a decision to withdraw from the negotiations when encountering setbacks.China has always adhered to the reasonable and safe concerns of North Korea to be respected and encouraged direct negotiations between the United States and the United States.
This is why North Korean leaders visit China for the first time and the second special money.Before the Singapore Summit last year, Trump once delayed the meeting and described the responsibility as because Kim Jong -un's visit to China was tough because of China.Trump's accusations are largely reflected in the internal consensus of the United States. China responded low -key and eventually held the summit smoothly.It does not rule out that the United States is also accusing China in the future, but it exactly explains that China's role is indispensable.
Secondly, in the process of negotiations between the United States and North Korea, South Korea will play an important role of preaching persons in order to facilitate the timely and accurate strategic intentions of North Korea and the United States to reduce unnecessary misunderstanding.Now, Kim Jong -un was worried that when North Korea was really nuclear, could North Korea be sure to believe that the United States had a commitment to end hostile and provided security guarantees.
Because the United States and North Korea do not often talk often, the role of South Korea is highlighted during the communication process during the interval between the talks.The danger caused by the suspension of the negotiations due to misunderstanding that the negotiations were suspended, which could be relieved through the North -South talks and the summit.We saw several meetings with the North -South leaders before the convening of the Special Fair last year, which played a good risk of vacuum in the blank period of dialogue between the United States and North Korea.
In this sense, South Korea will play a channel for indirect dialogue between the United States and North Korea, and to alleviate the role of a buffer that may be upgraded in stages.
The Korean Peninsula problem can be said to be cold for three feet. Although the direct talks of the US -DPRK heads make us see the dawn, it is unlikely that the decades of distrust is unlikely to be solved through one or twice.Talking about the momentum.Now there are China, North Korea, North and South, and the senior management of the United States and North Korea actively interact. In the future, we will continue to expand the consensus on the basis of these interactions. Coupled with Russia and Japan, the lasting safety of Northeast Asia will eventually participate in the participation of all parties.It is possible to achieve.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan
Senior Researcher of Regional and Global Governance of Beijing Foreign Studies University in China
