Deng Yanwen: Trump must not only show his reputation, but also avoid the breakdown of negotiations to affect the president's election.
The limit of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations on March 1st, the limits of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations on March 1, and the US team came to Beijing on the seventh day of the Chinese Lunar New Year on February 11.On the 15th day, the US trade representative Leitzizer and Treasury Minister Mnuchin held a new round of high -level talks with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He.This negotiation is the most important one in the Sino -US trade negotiations. Whether the two countries can reach an agreement, the success or failure is here.
Looking back at the entire negotiation process, the meeting between the two heads of the two countries on December 1 last year was a turning point in Argentina.Prior to this, the United States and China let the other party know their will through mutual tariffs.Objectively speaking, China and the United States' economic and technological strength are not equal. China ’s huge trade surplus in the United States has made itself in an unfavorable position in this round of tariff war. In addition, ZTE and Huawei incidentsDisadvantages.
It is precisely to this point that Trump will impose 10%tariffs on 50 billion Chinese goods in the early stage.Mentioned 25%, and threatened taxes on the remaining 250 billion commodities.
However, Trump and the core team behind him may despise the toughness of China's economy, the degree of complementarity of the US -China economy, and his competitors.Although the Chinese economy has the above -mentioned disadvantages compared to the US economy, after all, the volume is very large, and the internal structure is complete, and its anti -blow power is still very strong.In addition, China's industrial structure, labor quality, consumer market and infrastructure construction, and the differences in the export structure of China and the United States have also caused US companies and markets to decompose with China in the short term.
Therefore, we see that last year, China ’s exports and surplus to the United States not only shrunk, but reached a new high. Although there are factors that exporters in the fourth quarter to avoid this year’ s high tariffs, they have completely attributed innovation to this.The point is exaggerated.
The Prophet of Chunjiang Water Cooling Duck, Trump despised, but the US market felt the damage that the two countries' trade wars could cause the US economy.In the fourth quarter of the US stocks, the large turbulence of the US stocks, including the large layoffs of GM, Ford and other manufacturers, it is difficult to say that it has nothing to do with the US -China trade war, let alone a large amount of agricultural products of American bean farmers.These situations constitute a real pressure on Trump.
The so -called killing the enemy a thousand self -damaging 800. Although Trump described it in his own tweet, his heart must feel this pressure. Otherwise, after sending a signal in China, he fought withIt should have been chased by victory, instead of sitting down shortly after the tariffs on the second round of levy.
Of course, Trump agreed and negotiated, and may also misjudge the latter again, thinking that it was a signal for mercy.The protection of property rights, as well as equal treatment of the Chinese market and the equal treatment of Chinese enterprises, especially state -owned enterprises, finally achieved the purpose of defeating the Chinese economy.This is the structural reform that the United States wants to implement in China.To this end, Trump only gave China a 90 -day negotiation period.
From the perspective of the entire trade war and negotiations, Trump showed three obvious characteristics. One is the limit of the limits of the zero -sum game. In his negotiation strategy, only you lose and win.He did not hesitate to put his opponent a maximum pressure.Regardless of tariffs on 250 billion yuan of goods, or stipulated that the 90 -day negotiation period is a manifestation of extreme pressure.The second is that when the negotiations appear deadlock, pay attention to the head of the head of state.Due to the status and role of the head of state, the head of the head of state can indeed achieve the effect that the general diplomatic negotiation cannot achieve.
However, this is more reflected in some secondary non -core interests. On the issue of the national core interests, the head of the head of state may also face failure.
Trump's head diplomacy attempts to achieve breakthroughs on core interests and achieve the goal.The third is to value the results of the negotiations, not the negotiation process.The results of the negotiations are of course important. However, if you pay too much attention to the results and do not care about how to get the results, this makes the unsatisfactory negotiation results easy to be overturned, giving unnecessary trouble for front -line negotiators.Because some results have not achieved the expected purpose, what can be obtained through hard negotiations is better or even the best result that can be achieved under the existing constraint conditions. It is easy to veto this result.
Trump's negotiating style and means are supported by the strong national strength of the United States. Therefore, it seems that the trial is unhappy. The previous North American Free Trade Zone negotiations, the US -Korea steel and aluminum negotiations, etc.Reaching an agreement, now it is tough, and it seems to have to follow his rhythm.But not all Trump's opponents were led by his nose.In Trump's negotiations with Kim Jong -un, his luck didn't seem to be so good.Prior to the Special Fair in June last year, Trump was also aggressive to Kim Jong -un, forcing the latter to sit at the negotiating table, but after that, North Korea did not abandon the nuclear as expected by Trump, so that he had to make a second special special special specialties.Gold meeting.
The US -China trade negotiations may also repeat the US -North Korea nuclear negotiations to come to a special practice. After Liu He went to Washington on January 31, Trump released the information to the outside world at the end of February to rush in MarchOn the 1st, the first two heads of the two countries made the final shot on trade negotiations.Although Trump has denied goodbye in the near future, he has not denied that there may be special disciplines after March 1.
Regardless of whether there is a special practice, Trump and his negotiating team clearly appreciate that it is difficult for China to conduct structural reforms in accordance with the US requirements.One situation is not ruled out here: as the negotiations involve specific issues, the previous imagination is a bit simple.But more importantly, Trump's negotiations are pursuing absolute benefits, not a win -win situation. Then, in two cases, it is easy to cause transactions to reach.
First, as the saying goes, bare feet are not afraid of wearing shoes. Although the strength of the two is not commensurate, the other party is originally a poor egg. If you do not want to remove him physically, Especially when the other party is also afraid of the latter, North Korea is an example.Second, there is a gap between the strength of the two parties, but the gap is not very large. At this time, if the powerful party is excessively pressured, when the other party plays the timid ghost game, it will also cause major losses to the powerful party.Essence
Negotiations between China and the United States belong to the latter.Trump wants to promote structural reforms in China. For the Chinese government, some of them can be interrupted. For example, the subsidy issue of state -owned enterprises is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue.State -owned enterprises are not only tools for regulating and intervention in the market, but also the economic pillar of Chinese governance. With the official increase in control over state -owned enterprises, the cancellation of subsidies for state -owned enterprises will affect their market survivability, thereby reducing the number of state -owned enterprises, and governing China Governance for China Governance.Bring variables.At least in China, so in this regard, unless there is no time to do it, it cannot be easily given up.
Since China will not yield easily in structural reform issues, to reach a transaction, Trump can only make concessions. However, Trump is not willing to make concessions. As a result, it is very likely to form an deadlock.In order to fulfill his promise, Trump can restart taxes on Chinese products after reaching an agreement within the 90 -day period. However, if he levies taxes on schedule, although he fulfilled his promise, this also means that the United States and China turned his face.Unless the Chinese government does not retaliate, or Trump is ready to fight a comprehensive cold war with China, and in two years, he must defeat opponents and does not have much impact on the United States.Passionate.His policies for China have greatly focused on re -election.This is the predicament of Trump as a president, and it is not that others have.
The White House has released this news.For extension, Trump can find the reason for explanation without affecting credibility.For example, the negotiations between the two countries have made significant progress but some details have not been finalized, and the authorities of the two countries are required to continue to advance.Of course, if the negotiations are postponed, this shows that Trump has essentially retreated on the original pursuit of absolute interests, which is alsoIt means that the negotiations between the two countries will be consistent next time.
(Note: The author is an independent scholar, a researcher at China Strategic Analysis Think Tank. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
