Yu Zeyuan: Can a new round of negotiations in China and the United States reached an a

Early Thistle Yan Chunqiu

The new round of high -level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States will be held in Beijing from the 14th to 15th of this month.Whether China and the United States can reach an agreement before the coming of the negotiation period on March 1 to prevent the upgrade of bilateral trade wars. This round of negotiations will be the key.

Like the Washington negotiations at the end of last month, before the official talks of the high -level Sino -US team in this round, the two parties first held deputy ministerial consultations.

The working group led by US Deputy Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish will arrive in Beijing today and contact the working group led by the Deputy Minister of Commerce of China Wang Shouwen to pave the way for high -level negotiations.

In terms of high -level teams, China is still responsible for Vice Premier Liu He, while the United States is led by the hardliness of Robert Lighthizer and the gentleman Steven Mnuchin.The members of the two sides also include representatives of each economic and trade departments. There are nearly 100 people in China and about 60 in the United States. The negotiations will still cover extensive issues.

In terms of specific content, this round of negotiations will still involve forcing American companies to transfer technology, intellectual property protection, China's tariffs and non -tariff barriers, combat network theft, subsidies and state -owned enterprises' distortion of the market, eliminating the US export barriers to China, China, China, ChinaBuy a lot of American products and so on.However, the details of these issues have made important progress in Washington negotiations at the end of last month, and it is expected that it will not become a major obstacle to this round of negotiations.

This round of negotiations really focus on structural issues that the United States pays special attention to.And this problem is relatively vague, it is big or small.

In the past, structural issues involve China's basic economic system, and the economic system involves the political system.For example, the government's role in the economy, the relationship between the government and the state -owned enterprise, the development plan for the development of high -tech industry (such as Made in China 2025) and so on.If the United States adheres to China to conduct structural reforms in accordance with the US standards, it will definitely touch the sensitive political system issues, and the possibility of negotiation will be significantly increased.

From an aspect, China has canceled the transfer of compulsory technology through legislation and strengthening law enforcement, strengthening intellectual property protection and combating network theft. Through reforms, various types of enterprises such as state -owned enterprises are more in line with market economy requirements.The goals can also be part of the structural problem of Sino -American.If the United States recognizes China's efforts and commitments, the chance of the two parties will reach a significant increase.

In addition to bargaining on specific issues, there is also a large and small obstacle between China and the United States, that is, the lack of basic trust between the two parties.

The United States is concerned that China may not comply with even if an agreement with China has reached an agreement.For example, after China joined the WTO, it only took advantage of the WTO rules and did not carry out substantial structural reforms and open markets.Therefore, the United States will seize the psychology of China's eagerness to reach an agreement this time, and requires the review of China's promise through corresponding terms.

China is also worried that the United States lacks integrity.Typical examples in May last year, China and the United States basically reached a consensus without a trade war, but the United States soon changed his hexagrams, which led to the performance of the trade war.Therefore, even if China and the United States can reach an agreement this time, China still cannot give up the bottom line of thinking and prepare to deal with the United States at any time and restart the trade war.

Lack of trust leads to the prospects of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations.After the negotiations of Washington at the end of last month, US President Trump was released as soon as possible with the Chinese President ... Well witnessed the wind of the two parties to reach a great agreement, making the outside world optimistic about the Sino -US round negotiations.However, Trump said a few days ago that he would not meet ... meeting on March 1.This change shows that the United States will still put pressure on this round of negotiations, and strive to achieve the results of the United States.

However, whether China and the United States can reach an agreement depends on the ability of both parties to the trade war.Of course, China hopes to reach an agreement as soon as possible to ease downward economic pressure.However, compared with the loss caused by the trade war, China is more concerned about maintaining its basic economic and political system, and will not give up the right to develop high -tech.If the U.S. asking price touches these bottom lines, even if the trade war continues to upgrade, China has no choice.

In the past two months, the US capital market has become more sensitive to whether China and the United States can reach a economic and trade agreement.If the two parties talk about collapse, the US stock market will inevitably fall, and Trump's most important economic growth may be unsustainable and directly impact his re -election next year.

Therefore, the possibility of progress in high -level trade negotiations in China and the United States in this round is still not small.Even if the two parties do not talk, it is unlikely to completely close the door of the negotiation.In other words, if this round of negotiations fail to reach an agreement, the two parties may extend the negotiation period without allowing the trade war to continue to upgrade easily.After all, the Sino -US trade war has no unilateral winner.