As long as Najib continues to maintain the political status of my still existence, the days when the clouds are open to the moon will not necessarily be so long.(France -France -France -France Archives)
In the 509 election of Malaysia last year, the Barisan Nasional groove over the years over the years must be turned over to make the power before the formation of the Hope Alliance.The decisive factor of victory is his personal determination.
After the selection, I pointed out that Najib's own determination must be there at that time. Barisan Nasional's posters, marks, large -scale notice boards, etc., all photos of Indojjiber.Wait, many times the image of the local Barisan Nasional candidate is more promoted.Of course, this also made the entire National Campaign of Barisan Nasional, which to a large extent into personalization or Najib.
On the one hand, the main election strategy of Najib 509 is to copy the election method of the 505 election in the 2013 505 election, that is, the personal image of Najib, which focuses on the good Najib.Compared to the Barisan Nasional that has plummeted due to corruption and incompetence, it is basically effective to urge voters to vote for BN vote.On the other hand, the successful differentiation of the opposition party camp, which led the Islamic Party to split out, and cooperated with Najib's UMNO to send officers in the selection of the Malaysian voters in the selection, trying to disperse the votes of the opposition camp.Under the election system of the highest votes in each single constituency in Malaysia, Barisan Nasional (mainly UMNO) has a long time in these constituencies with 30%to 40%of iron tickets. ThereforeCandidates of the alliance.
However, Najib's 509 election strategy ignored two associated factors that were associated with the original intention.First, Najib's image in 2018 is very different from 2013.This is mainly because of the global asset transfer scandal of Yima Company that broke out in recent years. From the perspective of voters, it involves Najib more or less.itself.
But the so -called bystander Qing and the authorities fascinated, Najib is not really like the general trend like the emperor's new clothes, that is, the entire political advisory team of the entire political adviser that provided his opinions at the time would only say good words, and did not convey bad news.give him.The Barisan Nabe's 509 election strategy of Najib has made many candidates who look at the eyes unintentionally fighting, and they are afraid that they will be implicated by the scandal of a company, and the election relationship with Najib will be left.
Secondly, under the strong publicity of the Pakatan Harapan, some Malay voters began to vote for the national scandal before 509.Malay voters are deemed to be a Pakatan Harapan candidate who has been rebelled and will not safeguard the privileges and interests of Malay voters.
In the case of difficulty in the United States, some Malay voters chose to vote to the Islamic Party who voted for them to think at least they would try their best to safeguard their religious rights and interests.In this case, the 509 election has a subtle election result, because the support tickets that the Islamic Party finally split is not only the Pakatan Harapan votes, but also some Barisan Nasional (mainly UMNO) votes.In the constituency, the candidate of the Pakatan Harapan was selected in most votes with a micro -difference, and the overall 509 election ending was the Pakatan Harapan victory.
However, the analysis of the 509 selection of various roads also pointed out that no matter what the results of the election unexpected, the fact is to vote to the Barisan Nasional (especially UMNO) or the Islamic Party's Malay voters, accounting for 70 to 75% of their total number of their total number.EssenceTherefore, in theory, as long as UMNO can integrate with the Islamic Party to a greater degree, in the rural constituency that accounts for about 60%of the overall selection of the Malaysian Congress, they will still have a high chance of winning in the future.The just -concluded Golden Marun National Council was made up for a typical example. The Islamic Party politely gave BN not sending candidates, but tried to draw votes for the Barisan Nasional candidates, making the Barisan Nasional candidates eventually be elected with higher votes. IslamicThe party is indispensable.
Golden Malun's supplementary election also set off a eye -catching politician mdash; mdash; Najib.Since the loss of 509, Najib has resigned from all the leadership positions of Barisan Nasional. It is said that he is just a member of the opposition party.
In addition, in the past few months, Najib has been charged with more and more charges, and almost all circles have thought that his political future has ended.Unexpectedly, in the past few months, Najib has more brave war, and will issue a statement almost every day to get the time disadvantages. Most of the policies of the Pakatan Harapan government will be criticized.From the perspective of the entire political situation, he was more brave than the Mohammadha Mountain, who had replaced him to lead the UMNO, or replaced him.In particular, a series of Najib and the current Minister of Finance of Malaysia Lin Guanying and Lin's father, the senior leader of the Democratic Action Party, Lin Jixiang, and the pen battle, are full of media.
During the Election of Golden Malun, Najib also played in person and appeared in the election activities of the Barisan Nasional every day.Najib chose to continue his high -profile appearance in politics, with his unique political calculation.
First, he sees the basic disk of the UMNO and the Islamic Party, and there are two -thirds to three -quarters of Malay voters. They believe that as long as they can be kept, integrated, or even expand this basic disk, UMNO will be in the next election.The victory in the inside has greatly improved.
Many years of political experience also told Najib that the material attraction, coupled with a certain image packaging, is the most effective way to maintain support in some groups.Therefore, when Najib appeared or photogensed in public in recent months, expensive watches, rings, etc. also appeared high -profile, showing that he had a difficult deal, and there were three pounds of iron.His latest political slogan is even more explicit: what's so shameful, my boss?
Second, Najib also controlled one -third to half of parliament members within the UMNO party. In recent months, in the political struggle on UMNO's preaching position, the support of parliamentarians is that each building must strive to stabilize to stabilize to hold stabilizationSource of political forces.Therefore, as long as Najib continues to maintain the political status of my still existence, it may not be so long.
(The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (SIIA))
