Wang Mingyi: Washington factor and Taiwan Strait crisis

Author: Wang Mingyi

Xi Wujicuo was just introduced early this year. Tsai Ing -wen made a response to the ninety -two consensus in the first time that Tsai Ing -wen did not accept one country, two systems. Recently, the scholars of Washington think tanks have paid a lot of attention to the highest parties across the Taiwan Strait.Faced with a complex and severe situation, when the Taiwan Strait broke out of the conflict crisis, or the possibility of the Chinese Communist Party solved the possibility of Taiwan's problem, it once again triggered discussion.

Ge Lin, Vice President of Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center, said that if there is trouble in the United States and Taiwan in 2019, it may be that Trump will treat Taiwan as a pawn product trying to reach a trade agreement with Beijing, or it will not be broken due to the breakdown of China -US negotiations.When reaching an agreement, Trump may invite Tsai Ing -wen to visit Washington to punish Beijing.He believes that these situation evolution may cause a short -term political crisis.

Gelin's prediction reflects the real trend of the United States and China, that is, the recent outbreak of the New Taiwan Strait crisis, Washington is definitely an important variable.Since Taiwan's direct election in 1996, every election, cross -strait political contradictions have intensified, or the outbreak of the Taiwan Strait crisis is mostly related to the factors of Washington.The current Sino -US trade disputes have not been solved, and the possibility of Washington's Taiwan brand has increased greatly.

Tsai Ing -wen counterattacked the five articles, which is equivalent to choosing a route to confront the dialogue. For Trump, which is located in the Sino -US game, it should be able to enhance the opportunity to play Taiwanese cards to restrict Beijing.Tsai Ing -wen was lonely and stated that standing in the team to move closer to Washington, it may be possible to reproduce the situation on the eve of the elections and detonate the crisis of the Taiwan Strait.

In the spring of 1995 and in the spring of 1996, the Chinese Communist Party agreed to let Lee Teng -hui visit the United States, and published a political speech on Conneur's alma mater to order the PLA to launch a missile firing training for the Taiwan Strait waters.The Taiwan Strait crisis, which was once met, was lifted.

In July 1999, in order to prevent Wang Daohan from the President of the Sea Association, Li Denghui suddenly threw a special theory of the positioning of the relationship between the relationship between state and the country, completely destroying Guwang Taipei talks, which led to the resurgence of the Taiwan Strait crisis.The series of military exercises carried out by the Taiwan to receive troops in advance.

In August 2002, Chen Shui -bian sacrificed Taiwan China, while a country's positioning theory, once again detonated the Taiwan Strait crisis, but at that time, Beijing and Washington jointly managed the Taiwan independence crisis.To resolve doubts, Abian was regarded as a troublemaker by the outside world.

According to the historical laws of cross -strait interactive history, the proposal of Xi Wujia was originally an opportunity to create a re -talk, and it was also the window of seeking the opportunity to seek dialogue.In order to seek continuing governance, the possibility of independent government offering a referendum, or proposing to delete the aggressive means such as the unified preface of the country's unity of the constitutional renovation provisions.

The 2019 Communist Party of China has made a more complicated and severe judgment on the Taiwan Strait's situation. The think tank experts in Beijing and Washington are also increasing the frequency of sand table deduction. All parties pay close attention to how Tsai Ing -wen holds up the Banner of the United States and Anti -China?Was Trump who may compare with the Konne model of the Clinton period and agree to visit Tsai Ing -wen to visit the United States, not just transit in American cities.

According to the current situation, if Trump is urgent to rise with China and use Taiwan as a pawn of Huafu against Beijing, it may be possible to admit strategic operational stimulus such as Taiwan's high -level interoperability and military cooperation to recognize Taiwan's political status and other strategic operations.In Beijing, the maximization of the interests of the United States, but in the lack of communication mechanisms and mutual trust on both sides of the strait, it may bring catastrophic consequences to Taiwan.

At that time, A Bian was reprimanded as a troublemaker, and Tsai Ing -wen rushed to Huafu to communicate to resolve the crisis.Tsai Ing -wen knows the utilitarian and practicality of the US factors for cross -strait policies. It is more familiar with dealing with the relationship with Beijing and the importance of the survival and development of Taiwan.Facing the critical moment of historical choices, Tsai Ing -wen should think about the back of the steps down and the evaluation of her.