According to reports on November 23, the First Finance and Economics, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported US $ 429.8 billion in 2017, US $ 153.9 billion in goods, and a trade surplus of $ 273.5 billion.

However, the US Department of Commerce shows that in 2017, the United States exported goods to China $ 130.4 billion, the import of goods was US $ 505.6 billion, and the trade deficit of the goods was 375.2 billion US dollars.

Why is the Chinese goods trade surplus statistics statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China?

Xu Xianchun, the former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics and a special professor of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, explained during a lecture at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics that this mainly comes from the differences between the export data of American goods and the import data from China from the US statistics.The difference in this data ($ 75.8 billion) accounts for 76%of the entire Sino -US trade difference.

There are several major factors, such as valuation methods, re -export trade, trade bonuses, and cargo in travel items.

Statistics of the current total trade value distort the truth

From the perspective of the price method, Xu Xianchun said that the statistics of Chinese goods exports use offshore prices (FOB), and US cargo import statistics use the two prices: shipping price (FAS) and the CIF price (CIF).This means that the United States calculates the value of the goods imported from China from the Chinese port to the US port at a time at the shore price.Including these costs.

In addition, two types of price increases will occur in the re -export trade.

It is usually aimed at processing trade goods. These goods were purchased by middlemen after leaving China, and then sold to American buyers at a higher price. Thereforeget.

The other is the increase in the price that transferred to the United States through Hong Kong, China.This is because the goods have added value after being further processed in Hong Kong, or the price is lifted due to profit.The United States still regards this part as part of the export of Mainland China to the United States, and statistical the total value of imports after processing.This part of the added value or price lifting has pushed up statistics, but this part of this part is not obtained.

Regarding the travel items include cargo, Xu Xianchun said that many Chinese travelers buying a large number of products abroad is already a large partIt was included in the service trade import and was not included in the import of goods.

It mainly includes two major categories: the first category is travel, including travel, study abroad, medical care, etc.; The second category is productive service industries such as transportation services and intellectual property use fees.

China's service trade has a long -term deficit and has a long -term deficit to the United States. However, most of the deficit comes from the deficit of travel projects. If the deficit of this part of the service trade is transferred to the trade trade, it will degrade a considerable amount of trade surplus.Xu Xianchun believes that this part of the import of goods should be included in the trade import of goods, which has led to the underestimation of China's goods imports to a certain extent, which has increased China's foreign trade surplus, especially the US cargo trade surplus.

In addition, Xu Xianchun said that it is not comprehensive to consider that the United States' trade deficit with China has been incomplete. In recent years, China's foreign service trade deficit has expanded rapidly, of which the US service trade deficit has grown rapidly.

According to Chinese statistics, from 2006 to 2016, China's service imports from the United States expanded from $ 14.4 billion to $ 86.9 billion, an increase of 5 times.In 2016, China ’s service trade deficit with the United States was as high as 55.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 23%of the total service trade deficit in China, and 22%of the total US service trade surplus.Therefore, it is not appropriate to consider the United States' trade deficit with China's cargo trade, and ignoring the high value -added service trade surplus.

Xu Xianchun said that analyzing the trade situation can be seen from two perspectives, one is the total trade value, and the other is the value -added angle of trade.

At present, customs statistics are based on total trade value, but in the context of economic globalization, a product is often participating in manufacturing in many countries around the world. For exampleExport computing in the United States, but in fact, the added value obtained by China is less than $ 10.

Calculated according to the total value, the trading difference between bilateral countries is often exaggerated, especially the trade difference between China and the United States.Xu Xianchun said that the unsuitability of the total trade value statistics under the new international division of labor has led to statistical illusion and distorted the imbalance of bilateral trade.

For example, the two -headed model is statistically manifested as a trade deficit of countries (regions), such as raw material sources, such as Japan, South Korea, to make a trade surplus to the manufactures to the country (region) such as the United States.

The pre -World Trade Director Lami believes that the current statistics of the total trade value of trade distort the actual situation of the trade. He advocates reforming trade statistics, promoting the research of global value chain, and making up for the defects of the traditional trade statistics system with the value -added statistics of trade.Reconstruction of the truth reasonably.

The interest surplus behind the trade deficit

Xu Xianchun said that under the perspective of the global value chain, the Sino -US trade surplus is recorded in China, but the interest surplus behind the trade is mostly in the United States, and overall has achieved mutual benefit and common profit.

According to the 2010-2016 Sino-US trade value-added accounting report made by the Ministry of Commerce commissioned by the China Global Value Chain Project Group, if the relevant parameters remain unchanged in 2017, China ’s domestic increase in China exported to the United States in 2017 to the United StatesThe value is US $ 646, and the value -added of the United States that China imports from US $ 1,000 from the United States is $ 814.

This also means that among China exported $ 1,000 to the United States, 354 US dollars were used to purchase raw materials or services in the country (region) in the upstream of the industrial chain.project.This value was $ 814 in the United States, much higher than China.Therefore, in the same export value, the actual benefits of American residents, enterprises, and the government have greater benefits.

Xu Xianchun said that from the input of the output form, exporting to China and the United States is different.In 2017, China ’s domestic value -added to the United States was US $ 277.6 billion, and China’ s domestic value -added from US imports from the United States was US $ 125.3 billion.

Therefore, the trade surplus of Sino -US cargo trade based on trade added value is only 152.3 billion U.S. dollars, which is 44.77%compared with the Sino -US cargo trade surplus of US $ 275.8 billion from the total trade value statistics.

This is more in line with the actual situation.Many of the total trade value is generated by other countries. China has not obtained the corresponding benefits, so it is more objective based on trade added value statistics.Xu Xianchun said.

In addition, statistics also show that the contributor to Sino -US trade imbalances is not only a local Chinese company, but also the majority of foreign -invested companies in China, especially the US -funded enterprises in China, which contribute a considerable part of it.

From 2007 to 2013, the contribution of foreign -invested enterprises to the import and export of Chinese goods trade in China was more than 50%, which means that foreign companies accounted for half of the Chinese cargo trade surplus.Especially in 2011, foreign -invested companies' contributions to China's foreign cargo trade surplus reached 84.29%, which has fallen in recent years. This value in 2016 has reached 28.64%.

China's goods trade surplus is largely caused by the cross -border production, operation and sales behavior of foreign -invested enterprises.Not only that, Xu Xianchun said that foreign -invested companies, especially the United States investment companies in China, have also obtained rich profits, increasing the total national income and national wealth in the United States.

Xu Xianchun said that the value of exported goods in the United States is part of the value of the additional value of Chinese companiesSome are the value of foreign -invested enterprises.

The additional value of foreign -invested enterprises is re -decomposed, part of the wages and taxes generated by foreign -invested enterprises. This should stay in China, and the other is the profit of the enterprise. Some of them are remitted to the parent company into investment income.Some of the profits stayed and turned into a re -investor in China.

This part has become an increase in US financial assets in China. Entering the United States into China's capital and financial accounts, increasing US financial assets, that is, increasing national wealth in the United States.

Therefore, Xu Xianchun believes that the analysis of the bilateral trade relations between China and the United States cannot only pay attention to the difference between the trade trade, but ignore the corresponding multinational enterprise profit and asset -liability changes behind the trade behind the trade.Ignoring this will underestimate the mutually beneficial relationship between the trade in the trade in the bilateral economy, and it will also underestimate the benefits of American companies from the mutual benefit of Sino -U.S. Mutual Trade.

(Author/Hui Huiyun)