Rahman: In the US -China competitive relationship, strategic competition may be more serious than trade competition.The United States and China will not last for a long time even during the G20 summit.
Are you a Marxist, a realist, or a person who believes in historical accidents?Each ideological genre provides a different idea for analyzing the crisis of US -China relations.
The trade war between the two largest economies in the world has begun, and both Washington and Beijing are now discussing a new cold war.These two countries have just experienced a cold and unsuccessful encounter at the Asia -Pacific Economic Organization (APEC) meeting.
But at the end of this month, the US President Donald Bull; Donald Trump will hold an important talks at the G20 summit at the 20th G20 (G20) summit in Argentina, which may eventually reach a new trade agreement MDASH; or the tension situation further further.upgrade.
Marxists may expect commercial interests to occupy the upper hand, so the trade war between China and the United States will soon stop the war.Believers in international relations realism will believe that there will be conflicts that are inevitable that the big power of the United States and the rise of a major country like China, so the economic and strategic tensions will continue to be upgraded.
And those who think that history is driven by accidents will tell you how there is no theory to explain how things will develop, because too many things depend on humans who are unpredictable.
There may still be a variety of endings in this trade war. One of the signs is the open internal fighting between the hostile camps of the Trump administration, and the tension signs of the tension of Beijing; mdash; the Chinese government is striving to find a soothing comfortTrump's method.
Washington has a powerful hawk camp that is actively promoting long -term confrontation with China.In terms of economy, this camp includes the White House trading consultant Peter Bull; Peter Navarro and US trade representatives Robert Bull; Robert Lighthizer.
In terms of strategy, there are Trump's national security adviser John Bull; John Bolton and Vice President Mike Bull; Mike Pence, who recently delivered a very tough speech on Chinese issues.
The opposition to them is the pigeon camp, led by US Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin, as well as the White House chief economic adviser Larry Bull; Larry Kudlow.
The pigeon faction hopes to see the current trade tensions and the situation quickly resolved, and the eagle knows that Trump is both their greatest hope and their biggest potential weakness.On the way against China, he has gone farther than all other US presidents. Not only does it impose tariffs on nearly half of China ’s transmission and American products, but also has also strengthened the naval patrol in controversial waters in the Pacific Ocean.
However, Trump is also unstable, and he especially likes to trade with dictators.Some of his consultants are still in June this year that he and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un at the summit held in Singapore, he was worried.The US North Korea dialogue.Since then, the US president even expressed his love for Kim Jong -un on Twitter.
To the eagle worry, Trump has long emphasized that he admires it.He also showed a disturbing tendency mdash; mdash; he liked to declare a breakthrough in his imagination.For example, Trump recently claimed that China has abandoned MDASH; MDASH; MDASH; MDASH; because he himself thinks the policy is very rude.But there is no evidence that China has this transformation.
Navarro expressed the anxiety of the hawk in a recent speech in Washington. He accused the world's ushered amians of being a lobbyist for China.A few days later, his colleague in the White House Kudlo directly refuted him, saying that Navarro's comment was very wrong.
In addition to the hostile situation of trade issues, the strategic tension between the United States and China has also intensified.US military strategists are worried that the plan to build a military base on the South China Sea (China CHINA SEA) has changed the power balance in the region.
Commander of the United States India Command and General of the Navy General Phil Bull; Admirral Phil Davidson recently told the US Congress that China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenes other than the United States.
In order to show that the United States has not acquired China to dominate these sea areas, the United States has strengthened the navy patrol MDash; MDASH; recently, the naval vessels of the two China and the United States have almost collided.Some eagle people in Washington also want the United States to persuade alliance MDASH; mdash; especially Japan and South Korea MDASH; mdash; allow the United States to deploy short -range nuclear missiles in the region.Theoretically, this move can deter North Korea; in fact, this move will pass information directly to China.
These military tensions make trade disputes between the United States and China trade disputes with the US -China trade disputes that are much more difficult to resolve.Whether in Mexico nor Canada, neither strategic competitors in the United States.
It is this geopolitical dispute (rather than economic disputes) that made me think that the views of realists' views on the competition between the United States and China are most likely to be proven.Therefore, even though Trump agreed to delay the plan to impose tariffs on China at the G20 summit, in view of the background of the competition between major powers, the US -China trade suspension may not last long.
But Trump's personality and impulse may cause all the predictions of everything.If there is a living incarnation in historical accidents, it is Trump himself.
