Wang Jiaxi
The highly anticipated mid -term elections in the United States have also been settled, and it is also Trump's midterm test score. It was announced on November 6, local time.Senate later.Trump attended a post -election press conference with a great attitude.Although the spring breeze on the surface, Trump, who has always been his career at the press conference, still shows his panic.
Before the election, both democracy and Republican parties aroused the support of voters with rare political mobilization, and the activities that urged votes were overwhelmed.Trump himself has been a person, and has been touring the platform with extremely high frequencies for many consecutive days.Nowadays, the situation of the House of Representatives's control over the term of office has been formed. Although the suspense of the election has ended, the chaos of US politics has just begun.
What is the victory?
A election that is carried out in a highly torn political environment is difficult to determine based on the changes in the seats.Due to the problems of the midterm elections, the Senate's election is only one -third of the seats, and it is difficult for the Democratic Party to win all seats. Therefore, the outside world generally believes that the Republican Party will still stabilize the Senate.However, after the election, the Democratic Party has already held the majority of the House of Representatives, so Trump and the Democratic Party have announced their victory.
Because the two parties control the two houses separately, involving problems in major fields such as finance, finance, and national defense, I am afraid that they will become the battlefield between the two parties. With the current degree of opposition between the two parties in the United States, Congress may face the risk of disability.The crisis effect will inevitably overflow to all levels of the economy and society.
During the appointment of the Obama government, the two parties of the parliament were opposed to each other, and the Ge government allocated funds to clarify each other, causing a budget crisis, leading to the closure of the federal government for more than half a month.The federal government had to take a vacation of employees of non -core departments, and Obama even signed a special salary order to some federal government departments to maintain the normal operation of military and diplomatic institutions.After the mid -term election, Congress is in a unprecedented and serious division. The budget crisis is likely to come back and impact the future prospects of the American fragile economic recovery.
Compared to the Damocaris sword hanging on the federal government, the offshore financial market responds more directly to the split Congress.After the results of the Congress elections were released, the US dollar index fell sharply overnight, and the international gold price rose immediately, showing the market's concerns about the prospects of the US economic recovery.There are always two deficits MDASH at the same time in the United States; MDASH; trade deficit and fiscal deficit. After Trump came to power, he highly claimed to reduce the trade deficit, but intentionally avoided the fiscal deficit.
Although tax reduction and increased military expenses have the support of economic growth, increasing government expenditure means that the government needs to continue to maintain the scale of debt issuance at a high level.In the past year, under the condition of continuous pressure on the auction and prices of US long -term Treasury bonds and the auction of government bonds, Trump continues to expand its fiscal deficit, and it is probably difficult for the House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party to continue support.
It is difficult to rule after the chaos
On the other hand, the longest recovery cycle since 2007, the supporting factor is the low price of the loose currency environment and the consumer goods supported by the supply chain.Since the beginning of this year, the Fed has accelerated the pace of shrinkage and has tightened the gate of currency supply.The Republican election is boosted by the economic recovery. If the momentum of economic recovery stops abruptly, it will be difficult for the Republican Party to obtain legislative support from the Democratic Party to stimulate the needs of the economy, which will undoubtedly threaten the election of Republican and Trump.In this sense, domestic politics, which is increasingly aggravated and continuously failed to tear, continues to fail, and urgently need to integrate power.
Before the election, people look forward to the end of the current chaotic situation of the current American politics.However, the election did not meet the social tear or eliminate political polarization, but improved the level and intensity of the opposition between the two parties again.The election has not become the end of the chaos, but will be the beginning of a big disorder.The Democratic Party, which regains the agenda, will not sit at Trump's abuse, including a series of surveys around Trump, including Russia and tax single doors, are expected to accelerate.Will Trump, who lost the endorsement of the parliament for the governance, become more tamed with the institutionalist?The answer is obviously negative.
Before the election, the media had disclosed the list of cabinets that Trump was eager to get rid of, including the former Minister of Justice Sesse, and Rose, who was rumored to be going to work.Trump's policy is either because personal stains are likely to become a Democratic party -led Parliament to investigate the target of witch hunting, which may endanger Trump's governance.Therefore, Trump decided to start a strong, put on a fighting attitude, tightened the fence of the cabinet personnel, and further strengthened his control of the cabinet members.Although the newly -elected member has not yet performed his duties, the smell of gunpowder in the dispute between the courtyard has begun to spread.
It may also be in chaos, as well as foreign policies in the United States.From the Korean Peninsula to the Red Sea coast, from the Middle East to North Africa, the US foreign policy controlled by Trump has laid its own brand.The outside world is concerned about Trump's intentions, but the endorsement of the President of the Republican Party is also an important condition for the presidential behavior.The two sides of the Korean Peninsula were interactive, but the first meeting of Trump and Kim Jong -un lacked substantial consensus. The prospects of the second meeting also added new variables due to the results of the midterm elections.
According to the policy tone of the Democratic Party's policy on the North Korea, CVID (permanent, verifying, and irreversible de -nuclearization) must be realized in order to discuss the relief of sanctions on the DPRK, and this is also the red line that Trump has currently promoted to the DPRK.After the Democratic Party has mastered the House of Representatives, Trump will be difficult to give any substantial commitment to North Korea, and the contact and negotiations of the United States and North Korea have the risk of falling into a deadlock or even breaking the situation.
Similar to the North Korean nuclear issue, there is also the strategy of the Iranian strategy promoted by Trump in the Middle East.When Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement in May this year, South West Middot, a minority leader of the House of Representatives; Perosi said: The president decided to fulfill his misleading and unknown campaign commitment, destroying the successful joint action plan for success, soGlobal security is in danger, making people understand.In November, in November, Europe has clearly stated that it will continue to perform and counter US sanctions.
Seeing the Democrats of the major Western Alliance, they did not support the U.S. -unilateral tear to tear the Iranian nuclear agreement. Now in Europe's unanimous opposition, the House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party may re -examine the status and role of the United States in the Iran nuclear agreement, rather than oneRetired.Whether it is confrontation or running -in, it is foreseeable that the main axis of American politics in the first half of next year will be mainly focused on domestic.At the legislative level, the split parliament will restrict the President's foreign policy. Many Trump's diplomatic blueprints that have not yet been launched are difficult to predict the prospects.
Small trends and big games
The well -known strategic consulting expert of the Clinton couple election consultants Mark Middot; JMIDDOT; Mark J.penn published a small trend named a small trend in 2007: Microprends: The Small Forces BehindThe book of Tomorrows Big Changes successfully predicted the reshaping of American political patterns such as ethnic minorities, immigrants, LGBT groups (homosexuals, bisexuals and cross -sex) in the next ten years.
As an election consultant of the Democratic candidate, his optimistic prediction, these changes that lead the United States to diversify will be beneficial to the Democratic Party that support diversified, but at the same time, it is also cautious to prevent conservative power of the same dullness.Ten years later, after the election politics in the United States once again stood on the crossroads, the prediction of this book became a reality.The basic market of US politics has undergone adverse changes to the Democratic Party.
With the expansion of society, the proportion of more than 40%of the 2016 elections of the 2016 election was severely squeezed, and the shrinking of this part is the disappearance and increasing and increasingly and increasingly and increasing political buffer zone.Sharp left and right confrontation.Political mobilization and votes before the Democratic Party electedIn the ticket, the effect is smaller than expected, which reflects the liberal voters' structure and political claims become more diverse and decentralized. Inside the fragmented liberals, the traditional political mobilization of political consensus and the willingness to vote for votingThe penetration power is getting weaker and weaker, which is a subject that liberals are facing through election machines to participate in politics.
On the other hand, the hijacking of vulgarity and populism cannot be ignored.The 2009 New Tea Party movement represented the mutual echo of populism and conservatives at the grassroots class, but did not attract enough attention from the Democratic Party at the time.Trump's birth was born and became a new conservative flag bearer represented by the Tea Party, and was eventually lifted into the White House by the anti -construction populist forces.
It can be said that Trump's election reflects the conservatives of the United States, especially the trend of grassroots conservativeism and populism.After all, in the democratic game of one person and one vote, getting the most votes is the core interest.Trump used this shortcut to enter the White House, and the Democratic Party could not be exempted and began to make concessions to populism.In the end, Trump took the initiative to embrace or even consciously provoke opposition to create hostility, expand differences, and demons the external environment of the external environment, and turned to a more vicious and charming politics.
When the political polarization reaches the critical point, manufacturing and use of opposition have become a shortcut to pick up votes.Civilianism is an alienation and toxicization of politics through election machines. All people's oppositional politics is a characteristic of the traditional vulgarization of American political conservativeism.In the future of power integration and reorganization, it is difficult for the Republican and Democratic Party to be alone in this vulgar tide.The populism and hijacking of traditional politics may become a long -term trend of American political life.
The author is a doctoral student in the Institute of International Relations of the Chinese Institute of Foreign Affairs
Because the two parties control the two houses separately, involving problems in major fields such as finance, finance, and national defense, I am afraid that they will become the battlefield between the two parties. With the current degree of opposition between the two parties in the United States, Congress may face the risk of disability.The crisis effect will inevitably overflow to all levels of the economy and society.
