Cui Lei: Enlightenment to the Sino -US trade war in the United States and North Korea

Cui Lei

Starting from Sino -US mutual tariffs on July 6, the trade war has begun for more than four months, but there is no sign of ease.The United States is still overwhelming. On September 24, it will impose tariffs on US $ 200 billion in Chinese goods. It is planned to increase the tax rate to 25%from January next year. It also threatens the remaining $ 260 billion in taxes.

At the same time, the United States has frequently caused difficulties in China in investment, technology, geopolitics, and human rights.For a while, Sino -US relations fluttered.How to crack this deadlock?If you think about it, the game between the United States and North Korea in the past year may be inspired.

Shortly after Trump's politics, US -DPRK relations began to be nervous, and at the end of last year, it developed to its peak.With the acceleration of North Korea ’s nuclear guidance research and development, the United States has adopted a limit pressure strategy to increase pressure from various aspects of economics, diplomacy, and military, and even develop to Trump and North Korea’ s top leader Kim Jong -un.

Trump ridiculed that Kim Jong -un was a small rocket, and threatened to completely destroy North Korea; Kim Jong -un was tit -for -tat, threatening to tame Trump's mental confusion with fire.For a while, the risk of war in the Korean Peninsula increased significantly.

Taking the Pingchang Winter Olympics as the boundary, US -DPRK relations are judged to be cloudy.First, Kim Jong -un expressed his willingness to abandon the nuclear in the new year's congratulations, and extended an olive branch to South Korea, expressing his intention to send a group to participate in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.South Korea, which does not want the war, is very cooperative and actively wears a needle -needle in North Korea and the United States, and eventually prompts Trump to decide to meet with Kim Jong -un.

Then, North Korea released a goodwill again and again, bombarded the Toyo Nuclear Testing Field, and returned the US corpse who killed the battlefield during the Korean War.On June 12, two leaders who were still shouting and killing were a historic meeting in Singapore.Although there is no shortage of twists and turns in this process, Trump has even announced the cancellation of the meeting, but in the end, US -DPRK relations have eased.

It can be said that the dramatic turning point in US -DPRK relations is the result of North Korea's active compromise.Regardless of the reason behind it is that international sanctions have begun to take effect, North Korea has been unable to bear it, or North Korea hopes to improve the international environment after supporting the nuclear and pave the way for economic construction. No doubt, North Korea has obtained the Lizi and face.

On the one hand, after the SARS, the United States took the initiative to concession, unilaterally stopped the United States and South Korea's joint military exercises, abandoned the comprehensive, verifiable and irreversible nuclear non -nuclearization policy of previous U.S. government, and no longer insisted on requesting North Korea to determine the time abandonment time abandonment time.Table, quickly abandon the nuclear.On the other hand, through timely compromise, Kim Jong -un won the opportunity to sit on equality with the leaders of the superpowers, shake hands, and rises internationally internationally. In North Korea, he also has more capital to brag about the people.

In contrast, the Sino -US trade war, from the beginning of the March trade war, China has declared that it is not afraid of the trade war, and it must win the trade war at all costs.The United States decided to impose tariffs, and China did not show weakness and took peer retaliation measures.However, after several rounds of competition, the negative impact of the trade war began to appear.

Blind stalemate will have a serious impact on the Chinese economy, and the deterioration of Sino -US relations will also make China's diplomatic steps difficult.At this time, China's most wise approach is to imitate North Korea and take the initiative to compromise.

For the United States compromise, the dignity of China's great power will naturally be damaged, but compared with the benefits, this loss is worth it.Moreover, daring to compromise and be good at concession is the embodiment of the hidden light.In the reversal of China's attitude, Trump naturally thinks that he has won, and he will even post on Twitter to celebrate.Trump's vanity is very strong, show off, and satisfy symbolic victory.Although he must be reported, from his personal experience, as long as the opponent shows weakness, it is easy to change his mind.

For example, during the 2016 election, he had a bad talk with competitors Ted Middot; Cruz, ridiculed the latter to lie for the lying Ted.But as soon as the election was over, Cruz took the initiative to congratulate, and the two were good at the words.On the eve of the mid -term elections this year, Trump also made a special trip to Texas to help Cruz.This can be used by China.

At the same time, according to common sense, it can be speculated that due to the tough position in the early days of the trade war, the United States' psychological expectations have been significantly lower.At this time, if the Chinese side is compromised, even if the concession is smaller than the original request of the United States, the United States will accept it without getting in the foot.The United States' position on North Korea's abandonment of nuclear can be used as evidence.

The reason why Kim Jong -un can compromise with the United States is related to the advantages of his party, government, and military power.Because he has no peers, he is extremely flexible on the upper body of the foreign policy.Chinese leaders also have similar advantages, and it is not difficult to compromise in the United States.Since China can shake hands with Japan, it is certainly possible to reconcile with the United States.Moreover, compared with Terkin's once -outburst, the room between Xite was greater, because the two have not torn their face, and they still maintain a friend relationship on the surface.

Therefore, China should seize the opportunity and take the initiative to the United States.Xi T also had a good call a few days ago. At the end of November, the Twenty Group (G20) summit held in Argentina was a good opportunity.Chinese leaders do not have to make specific concessions before or during the meeting with Trump, as long as they clearly express their willingness to compromise.As for the negotiations of specific matters, it can be handed over to the bureaucrat and experts to do it.

The attitude determines everything. Although the negotiations of the United States and North Korea are extremely difficult, because the attitude of North Korea has changed, the attitude of the United States has reversed.Similarly, if China changes its attitude, the trade war ceasefire is even terminated or daily.

The author is a scholar in China, living in Beijing