Cheng Shuaihua: If China and the United States do not want to waste the opportunity to waste the G20 Xi special meeting, they should not focus on who to make concessions. Instead, they should jointly lead the WTO reform and establish new multilateral rules.
Regardless of whether they are really good friends or dangerous enemies, Xi Te will be confirmed to hold bilateral meetings and dinner at the G20 summit at the end of this month.
This will be an extremely important talk.Because, as the President of the National Committee of the United States and China Relations, Steveorlins said in October that since Nixon's visit to China more than 40 years ago, the future of bilateral relations between the United States and China has never been so uncertain.
Will the leaders of China and the United States continue to blame each other, or will they agree to a timetable for gradually canceling tariffs and work together to solve the systemic crisis facing the global trade system?China and the United States are in the center of this crisis.If China and the United States do not want to waste this opportunity, the two leaders should not focus on what bilateral concessions and compromises are to make, but to jointly lead the WTO reform to establish new multilateral rules.
Chinese compromise in politics and legal difficulties
Although there is pressure from Washington, including the tough attitude that US Vice President Pence told the Washington Post last week, it is very difficult for China to let China swallow the bilateral concession at the G20 summit. There are two reasons.
First of all, bilateral protocols with the United States are politically fragile and do not want to fall into a dilemma again.As early as May 19 this year, Vice Premier Liu He had reached a joint statement with the White House, stating that he would continue to dialogue with high -level dialogue and seek disputes in a positive way. High tariffs were not levied during the negotiation process.However, in a blink of an eye, the Trump administration threw away the armistice agreement and levied high tariffs on US $ 250 billion in Chinese imported goods in three times.
The high -profile anti -China remarks during the US midterm election also reminded China again that the bilateral concession agreement with the United States is unsustainable.The politicalization of US -China relations is not new.For more than ten years before China joined the WTO (WTO), the US Congress will consider whether to continue to carry out normal trade relations with China on the basis of the most beneficiary of the country's treatment, which has brought huge uncertainty brought by Sino -US economic and trade exchanges.Chinese leaders' determination to join the WTO one of the many motivations is to get rid of the uncertainty brought to Sino -US relations by domestic politics in the United States,
Secondly, from a legal point of view, it is difficult for China to give special preferential treatment exclusive to the United States because China and the United States are members of the WTO.If China provides US companies with more favorable market access or import commitments than other WTO members, this will violate the principle of non -discrimination of WTO.
If China reduces tariffs, further opens the service industry and investment, or introduces new regulations to strengthen the legitimate rights to protect the protection of foreign technology holders, these are suitable for all 163 WTO members, including the United States, but cannot be limited to the United States.
Why is the WTO reform?
The clock ticks.Due to the uncertainty brought by the Sino -US tariff competition, some American companies can only wait for them.However, governments and enterprises in other countries have spared no effort to develop the Chinese market. The import expo held in Shanghai this month is an example.
For Trump, he was grasping the tiger's tail of the tariff war.
If Trump continues to increase tariffs on Chinese products, it is necessary to get angry in the backyard, which is nothing more than a long time.After a few quarters, the results of the tariff war are presented, and it will damage the plan for the re -election of its campaign.Economists believe that Trump's tariff war will lead to rising prices of consumer goods and inflation, the decline in the profit of American companies participating in the cross -border value chain, and reduce the attraction of the United States to foreign investors.
The economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in October shows that if the trade war continues, China's GDP will lose 0.6%.Compared with this direct economic loss, economists are even more worried that the upgrading of tariff wars may pierce real estate bubbles, causing financial and social crises, especially the impact of vulnerable groups will be greater.
The question is how to let go of the tiger and politically guarantee its own safety.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) can provide a space for the United States and China to solve their disputes in non -political way.This is also one of the goals of the original design of the WTO. In a rule -based system, the dispute among members. This system is a security valve, which is the most likely to put politics outside the door.WTO is also a permanent place to negotiate, promoting market opening and formulating new rules.
Some members of the WTO have begun to work hard to persuade their American colleagues and Chinese colleagues to join the discussion of the WTO reform.Last month, the communiqué issued by the Ten WTO members of Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the other WTO members was an important attempt to release in Ottawa.
The EU tries to play the role of bridge between the United States and China.On the one hand, the European Union and the United States and Japan signed four joint statements on the WTO reform, emphasizing that the United States is solving the problem of unfair trade measures in China that has not been named.On the other hand, the European Union has also established the WTO reform working group with China. The working group has held many talks with Beijing and Beijing.
Another important progress is that the G20 trade and investment ministerial meeting held in mid -September emphasized the need to re -revive the international trade system and provides good suggestions and foundations for Xite talks.The G20 economy represents 80% of global GDP and 75% global trade.
The Minister of Trade in G20 recommends that our leaders consider these important issues, including the method of improving the WTO to cope with the current and future challenges. How G20 can solve the current situation in a way of cooperation and put forward ideas to ensure that the WTO continues to be correlated.
The Xiti Society can promote the six elements of the WTO reform
So far, the representatives of China and the United States in the WTO are just downloading their complaints, and have not begun the solution -oriented negotiations.The United States Ambassador criticized China as a government -led businessist economy, a large number of government subsidies, and government -supported measures to harm the rights of American companies and technology owners, and believe that these practices violate the spirit of the WTO rules.China has accused the United States accusing the United States on the tariff policy adopted by the national security clauses and the 301 clauses without a factual basis. It is a unilateralist and protective approach, which violates the WTO rules.The views of China and the United States have their supporters in WTO.
In order to balance the interests of members of the United States, China, and other WTOs, the Xitut will consider the following six areas to promote the WTO reform.
The first is to review the subsidy rules.(A) In terms of industrial subsidies, subsidies to state -owned enterprises, and subsidies provided by some state -owned enterprises as public institutions, they clarify or formulate relevant rules.The text of state -owned enterprises in the Cross Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) can be used as a reference and starting point.
China needs to work hard in this field, and some economists believe that the neutralization of the competition between state -owned enterprises is in line with China's domestic reform agenda.(b) Eliminate subsidies that cause excessive fishing in fishery.In December last year, the WTO Minister's Meeting set up the deadline for reaching an agreement before 2020. China and the United States need to continue to strengthen their contributions in negotiations.(C) Domestic subsidies for trade distortion agriculture in some developed countriesThe question should also be discussed.
The second is the dispute solution mechanism.On this issue, there is a watershed between the United States and all other WTO members.Since the Trump administration has continued to obstruct the launch process to appoint the vacant position of the WTO appealing agency. Its true intention uses the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer to say that it is the era of Tariffs and Trade Agreement (GATT) before 1995.After the ruling is issued, you can negotiate and ruling has no legal binding.
Most members, including China and the European Union, believe that an independent appealing agency and legal binding appealing agencies are vital.
In view of the above position of the Trump administration, the possibility of returning to the existing appealing agency system is very small, so members can discuss two alternative plans.(A) The arbitration mechanism established in the Memorandum of the Memorandum of the WTO dispute resolution mechanism, which ruled that the swaying parties were binding and basically solved all disputes that did not involve the United States.
The United States maintains the flexibility he needs and choose to join or not to join the arbitration system.(b) Develop a two -branch system, the existing procedures continue to handle disputes that are not related to trade relief measures, and at the same time set up a dispute related to dealing with trade relief measures separately.
There are two reasons for the establishment of a special court. One is that, compared with other cases, cases of trade relief measures do require more technical legal and audit financial experience.As a result, most of them are related to trade relief measures, such as the practice in anti -dumping surveys.
Third, supervise and transparency.Most members of the United States and China are interested in strengthening the notification obligations of supervision members and improved the transparency of trade -related domestic policies.The European Union and Canada put forward some ideas in their suggestions, such as criticizing members who did not fulfill their notice obligations. The member of the member cannot be the chairman of any committee or the working group.
Fourth, intellectual property rights and technology transfer.This issue often becomes headlines because of the US -China trade war, but many observers ignore this multilateral issue. As early as before China joined the WTO, members negotiated with trade -related intellectual property agreements (TRIPS) discussedEssence
At that time, developing countries hoped to obtain more technical transfer from developed countries by agreeing to protect intellectual property rights.Article 7 of TRIPS clearly states that woodcarving that protects intellectual property rights is to promote technological innovation, technological transfer, and diffusion in Hello; hellip; promote social and economic well -being, balance rights and obligations.Article 66.2 also specifically stipulates that developed countries should provide incentive mechanisms to promote technology transfer to the least developed countries.
The WTO reform should review the new development and challenges of the current technology transfer, including the global strategy of co -development and localization, localization of localization, and the gradual formation of global innovation networks in the technology replacement of multinational companies, and define the governments clearly.The best practice implemented by intellectual property regulations in technology transfer, as well as the degree of the government's should and not intervene in commercial exports and technical imports.
In this issue, all members should have the opportunity to speak, because promoting the diffusion and transfer of environmental friendly technology, etc., have a key role in achieving the 2030 agenda and sustainable development goals.
Fifth, the rules of digital trade.In recent months, more than 40 WTO members have accelerated their angles to talk about future trade -related e -commerce WTO negotiations and start exploring work together.China should also join this digital economy openness and discussions, which helps to promote domestic reform.The United States and China should play a leading role in digital economic rules and create a better and expected international market environment for the digital age.
Sixth, the development of development, or a problem with a history of history, has multiple meanings.
(A) The Trump administration complains that China claims to be a developing country in the WTO system and has received many benefits, especially the great cheapness in the United States.Many observers believe that China ’s identity of developing countries does not conform to facts and has political sensitivity. However, China is indeed not a weak developing country, and it has the same competitiveness in many industries.Therefore, it is recommended to develop an independent indicator system to evaluate the competitiveness of members' specific products or services in the global market. For example, if mobile phones from a developing country account for more than 10%of the global market share, then this isProducts and industries must bear greater responsibilities, less flexibility and shorter execution period.
(B) Developing countries continue to require developed members to solve the remaining topic of the remaining Doha, including the issue of domestic agricultural subsidies and peaks of agricultural product tariffs in developed countries mentioned earlier.Technology transfer.(C) The development of developed countries, such as the expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor, and the relatively high rate of poverty in children.
In developed countries, especially the outbreak of the United States, civilian attracting economists' attention to the development of developed countries. The development problem is not exclusive to developing countries.In the WTO, members can discuss and share how to adjust the existing social market system in the era of economic integration and technology automation, and how to update domestic policies and social contracts to solve the concerns of vulnerable groups.
At present, the hardliners seize the headline news, and the Cold War remarks are hidden from time to time.In this case, the Xite Council was a very rare opportunity during the G20 summit.It should be reminded that the United States and China as the responsibility of a superpower, the responsibilities of their domestic people, and the responsibility of the global economy and the 2030 sustainable development goals.
They need to understand that rules, not concessions are the key to sustainable solution to the Sino -US dispute.The WTO reform provides a timely platform for both parties, so that it can get out of the jungle without biting the tiger of the tariff.
Note: This article only represents the author's point of view.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
