Current affairs perspective
The Sino -US trade war has begun four months.The United States implements tariffs on Chinese products equivalent to $ 250 billion, and the scale reaches 40 % of the total imports.Although the scale is not as good as the United States, China has also taken countermeasures on additional sanctions on the United States every time, with a scale of $ 110 billion.
In early October, the US Vice President Pence delivered a speech. In the eyes of the Chinese, I couldn't help thinking of the iron curtain of former British Prime Minister Churchill, which was shocking;Finish.
For China, there are two negatives in the deterioration of Sino -US relations.
First, although the Trump administration has already predicted that the Trump administration will launch a trade offensive, he thinks that he can finally avoid it through negotiations, but failed to avoid it.
The second is to encounter a trade war during the deterioration of economic state.In the past 10 years, China has used loans and investment as a policy center, stimulating the economy, leaving the severe sequelae of the sharp increase in debt, and forcing China to tighten the slogan as a slogan last year.At this moment, China was negatively impacted by the trade war.
There is also Chinese private business owners very pessimistic about the future.Not only because of bad prosperity, but also suspicious whether the government can survive.60 % of the total domestic product (GDP) and 80 % of private enterprises are difficult to hope for the future, which is a huge negative energy for the economy.Therefore, the current Chinese economy is in the trouble of triple suffering.
The issue of the United States is that its domestic policy has not reached a consensus.In this case, it should be supported by the strictness of China, but on the issue of how to further deal with the trade war, the Cold War factions such as not allowing China to hegemony and letting China have changed the free trade.The free trade factions, as well as the differences in anti -trade faction such as Sino -US economic relations that are too close, have failed to reach a consensus.Therefore, if you want to know what the United States wants to do in China, China is at a loss.
Seeing China's technological progress in recent years, the United States has begun to worry about losing its leadership.However, due to excessive concerns, even exploring the employment of Chinese citizenship in the field of R & D, or reduced extreme measures such as international students from China.Too exciting measures will in turn damage the leading advantage of the United States.
The United States should keep calm.It seems that the current Chinese government cannot fundamentally heal the economy, and China's rise will stop shortly shortly.In addition, the United States is afraid that it will be surpassed by China in information technology (IT), but ignores the development trend of one -party autocracy and IT technology.It's an example.
In the dispute between China and the United States, since the information technology agreement signed by the World Trade Organization in 1996, it has led zero tariffs and traveled to the IT industry at the forefront of free trade.
In the past 20 years, the deepening of free trade has led to the development of the global IT industry chain, and has brought about the explosiveness of the cost -effectiveness of IT related products. The information technology has achieved unprecedented development and popularization, and has changed human life.Northeast Asia is also the most benefited from the growth of the IT industry.If you no longer use the rules of free trade, the development of IT technology and industry in the future, and the benefits of human beings will be reduced.The benefit of Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and the entire Northeast Asia will suffer huge losses.Therefore, the entire area must work hard to prevent the condition from spreading.
It seems that the ebb of free trade is not limited to the IT industry.Many people in the United States also predict that Trump will take the WTO as a threat.
After that, what will be waiting for the world economy?Now only the United States has waved the protectionist stick that violates the rules of the WTO. If other countries also follow the trend, the protectionism will continue to spread, and the world trade will be reduced sharply. I am afraid that the nightmare of the 1930s will reproduce.
Japan is committed to signing regional free trade agreements such as cross -Pacific Partnership Comprehensive Progress Progress Agreement (CPTPP), Japan MDASH; EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JeuePa), and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP).Protectionism spreads in the world.
If the world loses free trade and ushering in a world economic recession, is China confidently maintaining its prosperity of its country?If not, I hope that China and Europe will feel unfair to this way. Those distorted trade policies and conventions that will not continue to continue free trade will not be delusional.
However, even if Japan, China, and countries with the same concerns have worked hard, it is impossible to ensure the prevention of ebb to prevent the free trade system, but we seem to have no choice but to pay the maximum efforts.
The author is a visiting researcher at the Institute of International Issues of Japan. Modern China Research Expert
