Zhang Jingwei: Will the ＂Xi Special Association＂ end the Sino -US trade war?

Where does Sino -US relations go?This is a global topic that everyone cares about.Especially after the US midterm elections, how to solve the traveler of Sino -US trade friction is even more imminent.

US President Trump has recently hinted that China and the United States may reach an agreement on trade issues.There is also good news. The previous interrupted Sino -US diplomacy and security dialogue was held in Washington on November 9.

Although there are still differences in many issues such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, in the conversation between the two countries, the two countries have confirmed that the two countries must maintain close communication and control the unexpected conflict between the two warships and aircraft in specific areas.EssenceIn addition, the United States emphasizes that it will not curb China, while China explicitly explicitly not replaces the United States.

Interestingly, the White House trade consultant Navarro warned Wall Street not to intervene in Sino -US trade negotiations, pointing out that Wall Street and Goldman Sachs said to speak for the Chinese platform, accusing Wall Street for doing so.This shows the differences and contradictions of the US trade war in China.Nevertheless, Trump emphasized that China has abandoned the Chinese Made in China 2025 plan, and it seems to imply that China has made concessions to the United States on major issues.

Is China a good interaction created a good atmosphere for the Xite Society that is about to be staged in Argentina, or is China and the United States shook hands in trade?The most likely is that China may become more cautious and listen to the United States.However, China and the United States undoubtedly ushered in a good opportunity to resolve trade frictions.

China is willing to give up and reach a settlement with the United States, but it is obviously not principled, such as abandoning Made in China 2025.However, China also understands the political and national conditions of the United States.From the perspective of the situation in this midterm election, Trump's unilateralism is still firmly supported by the US local white.Liberalism and Americans holding a globalized position are basically concentrated in the east and west coasts.

The political landscape of the United States is also reflected in the stunning red and blue contrast of the US geographical map.Among them, the vast red region MDASH; MDASH; inland state supports Trump, and the weak blue region where the east and west coasts are the Democrats are the sphere of influence of the Democratic Party.In this situation, China's expectations for the midterm elections are endless.

The red region was also torch that Trump was inspired by populism, and the United States preferentially became the mainstream ideology of Trump's patriotism.In this ideology, from Washington to major think tanks to mainstream public opinion, the former Zhihua School has silently disappeared, and dare not make a sound to China.The Bloomberg Innovation Economic Forum held in Singapore can understand the changes in the American elite society.

At the forum, former Treasury Secretary Paulson emphasized that if the United States and China fail to resolve strategic differences, the economic iron curtain between the two countries will come, but the United States is isolated China while is isolated themselves.The most famous Zhihua school in recent years seems to have maintained a certain rational stand, but he turned around and believed that the reason for Sino -US trade friction was that China was not open enough.Obviously, Paulson also believes that the main responsibility of Sino -US trade friction is in China.

The old friend of the Chinese people who appeared on the forum, Kissinger, expressed an optimistic position in the Sino -US resolution of trade frictions, but the observer would not forget that he had previously given the Trump administration Mdash; mdash;Hua, although he denied it afterwards.

There is no doubt that Kissinger is or Paulson. Although they have made constructive contributions to Sino -US relations, the identity of politicians makes them unable to get rid of real politics.Stand -up, examine the current Sino -US relations.More importantly, they must start from the interests of the United States, so prejudice against China is inevitable.

The Zhihua faction is so difficult to treat China with the anti -China position.The two parties in the United States may have differences in their internal and external policies, but in terms of toughness to China, the US House and Courtyard stands unprecedentedly.Sino -US trade disputes are unavoidable practical issues for the United States and China.The internal reasons are mainly China's national strength enhancement, strategic strength to force the United States, and the development of the United States to China is full of real crisis, and even becomes fear.

To curb China, blocking China beyond the United States has become the choice of the United States.Starting from the Asia -Pacific rebalancing strategy in the Obama era, the United States has pointed to China.Moreover, Obama publicly emphasized when promoting the Asia -Pacific rebalancing strategy to prevent China from formulating global trade rules.

In the Trump era, the trade war in China was more bad, the political language was more arrogant, and the oppression methods were even more rapid.However, compared to the Obama era to curb and surround China by lingering, the Trump real swordsman's trade charge to China has allowed China to survive the most difficult moment.After all, China in the Obama era was fighting alone, and the trade war in Trump was the enemy of the tree. China had enough buffer space.

At present, the Sino -US trade war is in the stalemate stage, and China has also suffered trade pressure from the United States.Trumpism has also become a global enemy.In this situation, the opportunity for Sino -US trade to reach consensus through negotiations has arrived.But this kind of good opportunity is by no means one -way compromise in China, but a step back in China and the United States.

In short, China will not accept the square agreement like Japan that year, and China will not give up its core development strategy.However, China will continue to reform and open, especially reducing restrictions on foreign investment and increasing exports.China is also doing this. The expo is being held, allowing the world to see the integrity and goodwill of China continuing to reform and opening up.What about the United States?Continue to blackmail China MDash; MDASH; Extreme pressure may not be used.

The stalemate of the Sino -US trade war has led China and the United States to slowly have room for slow cheeks.China has to adapt to Trump's extreme pressure and have to make concessions, but it will not compromise in core interests and national strategy.The Trump administration has made almost all of its solutions, and its blow to the Chinese economy has not reached expectations, so it must be reconciled with China.

The Xitter Association will be staged again at the Argentine Group (G20) summit, which provides an opportunity for the heads of state of the two countries for the relatively successful sentences of the Sino -US trade war.The two strong games, do not have zero sum, are good for China and the United States, to all countries in G20.

I hope so.

The author is a senior researcher at the Chahar Society of China, a guest researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China